re: What is the endgame for A.!.?

quote:

---

We're starting to see that already.

---

We are.

The tipping point seems to be after those negative behaviors become generationally ingrained. There were times when Calhoun would take a group from an enclosure on the decline and then put them into a whole new enclosure, but they just continued to decline and eventually died off.

My thought on this is that once enough of those destructive behaviors permeate deeply enough throughout the group, it becomes a scenario of "not only is this the only way I know to behave, but it's also the only way everyone I know knows how to behave."

Also, the more complex the mammal, the longer it takes.

Calhoun observed there were 4 stages:

Phase A (Adjustment): Initial setup; mice adapted to the environment (first ~100 days). Low population, normal behavior.

Phase B (Exponential Growth / Exploitation): Rapid population increase (roughly days 100–315). Mice thrived, doubling every ~55 days, reaching around 600+ mice. Social structures formed but remained functional.

Phase C (Stagnation / Plateau): Growth slowed dramatically and stopped (around day 315–560). Population peaked near 2,200 mice (the enclosures were designed for up to ~4,000 mice).

This is where the "behavioral sink" emerged:
-Pathological overcrowding behaviors (e.g., clustering at certain feeders despite others being available).
-Breakdown of social roles: Increased violence, withdrawal, poor maternal care, loss of courtship/mating drive.

Calhoun described this as the "death of societal organization." Normal complex behaviors (reproduction, parenting, territory defense) failed.

Phase D (Death / Decline): Population crashed irreversibly. Births nearly stopped; infant mortality soared. "Beautiful ones" (withdrawn mice that only ate, groomed, and avoided interaction) appeared. The colony went to extinction despite no resource shortage. Last births around day 560–600, full collapse followed.

For the rodents, it came around 4-6 generations after that first initial group entered the enclosure and it's important to break it down in that sort of chronology because their lifespans are so short.

It's debatable where we are in the cycle, if we're even in it at all at this point. It's also debatable if we follow the same timeline (being more creative, it may be 7-9 generations, or longer, or fewer). Regardless, I would argue that the moment we hit the point where AI is not just improving itself, but building and improving its own bodies and independently harvesting resources to do so is when the clock is absolutely ticking.