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re: Weather forecasting is out of control!
Posted on 3/16/25 at 9:52 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 3/16/25 at 9:52 pm to LegendInMyMind
I will add that radar advancement and a focus on verifying all tornadoes (via tornado surveys) and the addition of reliably recording tropical system related tornadoes are also both considerable players in driving higher yearly tornado numbers.
Over the past decade or two we have seen a marked increase in "weak" tornadoes being recorded. We now make an effort to record any tornado, and that has lead to a boom in EFU, EF0, and low end EF1 tornadoes added to the record. Those are the type of tornadoes that were often overlooked, or just not known about, in the past.
Tornadoes related to, or produced by, tropical systems have not always been reliably, consistently, or accurately tracked and added to the record. Even when the practice of adding those tornadoes was officially adopted there wasn't much focus on it. Often times only the worst or most notable of those tornadoes were accounted for. Now, we try to find them all.
Over the past decade or two we have seen a marked increase in "weak" tornadoes being recorded. We now make an effort to record any tornado, and that has lead to a boom in EFU, EF0, and low end EF1 tornadoes added to the record. Those are the type of tornadoes that were often overlooked, or just not known about, in the past.
Tornadoes related to, or produced by, tropical systems have not always been reliably, consistently, or accurately tracked and added to the record. Even when the practice of adding those tornadoes was officially adopted there wasn't much focus on it. Often times only the worst or most notable of those tornadoes were accounted for. Now, we try to find them all.
1
Posted on 3/16/25 at 9:56 pm to L5ut1g3r
The levels of thermodynamics and fluid dynamics that doctorate meteorologists need to understand scares me
i respect the frick out of those men and women
i respect the frick out of those men and women
Posted on 3/16/25 at 9:59 pm to tilco
quote:
MO ha a lot of real life experience with these spring storms. That is exactly what you want out of your local weather.
To be fair, a lot of folks are angry at our local meteorologists because they predicted 11-18 inches of snow a month or so ago and we ended up with more like 5.
Posted on 3/16/25 at 10:34 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
To be fair, a lot of folks are angry at our local meteorologists because they predicted 11-18 inches of snow a month or so ago and we ended up with more like 5.
That would be difficult to predict. But the weather service predicted 12 inches of snow in nw Arkansas recently where my brother lives and they said it would be a dry snow that you’d have a difficult time making a snowball out of. They nailed it.
The fact they can be close to right is a huge improvement over anything we’ve had in the past. And if allowed to continue they will get better.
Posted on 3/16/25 at 10:42 pm to LegendInMyMind
Also, to highlight what a difference a concerted effort to survey and document every tornado makes to the overall number of tornadoes in a given year we can look at the number of tornado reports made by the general public versus the number of actual confirmed tornadoes.
We only have accurate public report information back to 2000, and I've only compared the first four years (I need to get back on that project), 2000, 01, 02, 03.
Throughout those four years on average there were 30.2% more confirmed tornadoes than tornado reports made by the general public. This was thanks to local NWS WFOs working to locate and survey tornado damage paths. They did so by working primarily off of radar data, and sometimes satellite imagery.
We leave no stone unturned in search of tornadoes these days.
We only have accurate public report information back to 2000, and I've only compared the first four years (I need to get back on that project), 2000, 01, 02, 03.
Throughout those four years on average there were 30.2% more confirmed tornadoes than tornado reports made by the general public. This was thanks to local NWS WFOs working to locate and survey tornado damage paths. They did so by working primarily off of radar data, and sometimes satellite imagery.
We leave no stone unturned in search of tornadoes these days.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 11:06 am to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
What specifically are you referring to? Like show me an example
There aren’t any.
And they’re the ones bitching about weathermen using hyperbole.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 11:17 am to SidewalkTiger
quote:There's that date again. They love mentioning that date but, lo, it was nowhere close to that.
"the parameters are there for a historic outbreak similar to 4/27/11..."
Go ahead and downvote if you are triggered.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 11:34 am to TDFreak
30 confirmed deaths the last I looked yesterday. The weather people nailed it. Go look at some of the videos from the tornadoes that hit in Mississippi. Crazy damage.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 11:51 am to tilco
God I hope you don't make any serious safety-related decisions for anyone
Posted on 3/17/25 at 11:55 am to TDFreak
quote:
There's that date again. They love mentioning that date but, lo, it was nowhere close to that.
Go ahead and downvote if you are triggered.
The parameters were similar to 4/27/11, as they said.
Just because the outbreak wasn't on the same level doesn't make that any less true.
You seem to be somewhat ignorant as to how these forecasts work and you're blaming meteorologists for your lack of understanding.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:04 pm to TDFreak
quote:
There's that date again. They love mentioning that date but, lo, it was nowhere close to that.
Go ahead and downvote if you are triggered.
hindsight is fricking 20/20
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:08 pm to SidewalkTiger
This is just reminding me how dumb people on this board really are
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:09 pm to TDFreak
quote:
There's that date again. They love mentioning that date but, lo, it was nowhere close to that.
Go ahead and downvote if you are triggered.
quote:
TDFreak
You're another one of the tards Legend was referring to last night
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:31 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
You seem to be somewhat ignorant as to how these forecasts work and you're blaming meteorologists for your lack of understanding
This is the problem. They are too ignorant to realize that their lack of understanding is the issue. Not the guys presenting the information.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:57 pm to CE Tiger
I’ve noticed the maps on the TV station that my wife watches are color enhanced compared to the actual NOAA radar.
TV guy was pimping his self declared tornado passing over our house the other day. My wife is cowering in the closet while it was sprinkling outside. I looked at NOAA radar and the storm system had completely passed us. While his map was showing us under a huge red mass.
Not sure what is going on with these TV guys. Maybe hype increases viewer numbers.
TV guy was pimping his self declared tornado passing over our house the other day. My wife is cowering in the closet while it was sprinkling outside. I looked at NOAA radar and the storm system had completely passed us. While his map was showing us under a huge red mass.
Not sure what is going on with these TV guys. Maybe hype increases viewer numbers.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:57 pm to ShinerHorns
quote:Retard alert
These “meteorologists” graduate from these lib universities and have to sensationalize everything.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 1:01 pm to im4LSU
quote:
This is the problem. They are too ignorant to realize that their lack of understanding is the issue. Not the guys presenting the information.
I have a pretty good idea why they’re being programmed to think this way. Stay tuned it’s only going to get worse on a number of issues.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 1:07 pm to im4LSU
These dudes aren't mad because the meteorologists got it wrong or had bad motivations, etc.
They're mad because they wanted drama and didn't get as much as they thought they should.
People get angry about missed snow predictions because THEY want snow. I get it, snow is great, it's rare, it's fun. The kids are out of school, and it just rains. It's a letdown.
This is similar, except none of them actually want to be impacted. They want to feel like they COULD be impacted, and they want someone else to be impacted, but they don't want to take a hit, of course. But when the F3s and F4s go through rural areas (which is most of the time in these events) - there aren't as many videos, not as much to discuss and fret about, etc.
If the F4 in Arkansas had hit a city with 100k people, you wouldn't get this thread. FACT.
They're mad because they wanted drama and didn't get as much as they thought they should.
People get angry about missed snow predictions because THEY want snow. I get it, snow is great, it's rare, it's fun. The kids are out of school, and it just rains. It's a letdown.
This is similar, except none of them actually want to be impacted. They want to feel like they COULD be impacted, and they want someone else to be impacted, but they don't want to take a hit, of course. But when the F3s and F4s go through rural areas (which is most of the time in these events) - there aren't as many videos, not as much to discuss and fret about, etc.
If the F4 in Arkansas had hit a city with 100k people, you wouldn't get this thread. FACT.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 1:20 pm to L5ut1g3r
Weather porn sells. Let the weather guy come on screen wearing his suspenders and hooboy lookout.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 1:41 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
If the F4 in Arkansas had hit a city with 100k people, you wouldn't get this thread. FACT.
If it hits Tylertown, MS though, it's a bust.
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