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re: Weather for Monday, May 20. Attention: N TX, Cen. OK, S KS High risk forecast

Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:38 pm to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
50601 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:38 pm to
New PDS Tornado Watch:

Posted by Hawgeye
tFlagship Brothel
Member since Jun 2009
32340 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:39 pm to
Actually, I missed that watch. Wagoner County not included, but still close enough.
Posted by SB in KC
Oklahoma City
Member since Jan 2012
406 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:39 pm to
Last time May 20 fell on a Monday an EF 5 hit Moore, OK. in 2013. I am currently in Moore, OK. Be safe everyone in the area.
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
101863 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

@NWSSPC

PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%. The only other watch like this was issued for Alabama on 27 April 2011.





You never want to share company with April 27.

Posted by ElOsoBlanco7
225
Member since Feb 2019
467 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

quote:
It was a 45% hatched on 4/27 too to highlight the potential today.



That day still sets itself apart from a forecasting perspective because of the >95% chance of all severe modes in one of the PDS watches. I'm curious if today will come close to that.


Welp...there goes that record.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91271 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...


Well there it is - the infamous April 27 2011 numbers:

quote:

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (>95%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

High (>95%)



Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (>95%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

High (>95%)



Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (>95%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

High (>95%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)



Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53375 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:42 pm to
What's best the live feed? Is the local KFOR going Live?
This post was edited on 5/20/19 at 1:42 pm
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
146182 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

@NWSSPC

PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%. The only other watch like this was issued for Alabama on 27 April 2011.

Posted by Hawgeye
tFlagship Brothel
Member since Jun 2009
32340 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:42 pm to
Wind has picked up here at the house. Seems like the wind has shifted a bit and is coming from the south east now.
Posted by Hawgeye
tFlagship Brothel
Member since Jun 2009
32340 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:44 pm to
quote:

What's best the live feed? Is the local KFOR going Live?


For OKC it may be their channel 9 news station. It is the sister station to News on 6 in Tulsa and both stations have helicopters they put in the air during storms that usually have great shots. They also have their own storm chasers on the ground.
Posted by okietiger
Chelsea F.C. Fan
Member since Oct 2005
42208 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:45 pm to
What is it about May 20th in Oklahoma?

Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43097 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:46 pm to
Man I miss Dr. Greg Forbes for events like this. I'll never forget when he said oh boy we have a debris ball when the tornado hit Tuscaloosa.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91271 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:47 pm to
I would imagine we're only a half hour or so from our first tornado warnings of the day. Those cells near Lubbock look worrisome.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43097 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:49 pm to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
146182 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

Man I miss Dr. Greg Forbes for events like this. I'll never forget when he said oh boy we have a debris ball when the tornado hit Tuscaloosa.

James Spann was calling his own tornado emergencies that day... he wasn't waiting for the NWS to put them out
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
32080 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:50 pm to
Yall be safe over there

Posted by Hawgeye
tFlagship Brothel
Member since Jun 2009
32340 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:51 pm to
I am really hoping these little showers that keep rolling over us help keep our temps down for a while and keep us covered in clouds. That is probably the only hope we have and that may not be very much hope at all.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43097 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:52 pm to
that storm east of Lubbock has exploded and is now severe thunderstorm warned.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
146182 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

I am really hoping these little showers that keep rolling over us help keep our temps down for a while and keep us covered in clouds. That is probably the only hope we have and that may not be very much hope at all.

TWC saying it's not really mattering much today
Posted by Hawgeye
tFlagship Brothel
Member since Jun 2009
32340 posts
Posted on 5/20/19 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

TWC saying it's not really mattering much today


Yea I know...but for my sanity I am going to keep telling myself that. I think it may matter more for us being on the eastern side of the state, but could be wrong.
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