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re: TS Jerry, TS Karen & More Areas to Watch - Peak Season

Posted on 9/12/19 at 12:59 pm to
Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 12:59 pm to
Would take that head on. The ground here is so dry, my backhoe bucket had a hard time digging.
Posted by FLObserver
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
15731 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 1:36 pm to
We just went thru this a week ago here in jax. This better not happen in the next few weeks, As long as it stays off the coast i guess it would be ok. just to many close calls evently im nervous our luck may run out.
This post was edited on 9/12/19 at 1:38 pm
Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11928 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 2:02 pm to
This looks no bueno for LC folks...

Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
106830 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 2:10 pm to
Is 95L projected to develop into a storm or hurricane?
This post was edited on 9/12/19 at 2:10 pm
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 2:11 pm to
I'm liking what I see from the NHC 5 day forecast track

Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11928 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

Is 95L projected to develop into a storm or hurricane?



Hopefully it shits on itself and goes away
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
146216 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

This looks no bueno for LC folks...

1010 mb is barely a tropical storm... if at all

that would just be some rain and a light breeze

just continue about your merry way LC folks
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

Is 95L projected to develop into a storm or hurricane?


Depends on where it goes. Expectation is at least a tropical storm. If it rides along the east coast, it'll likely get to hurricane status. If it goes west into the gulf like the GFS suggests, it's not likely to be much more than a weak tropical storm.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
128892 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 2:16 pm to
I need some rain. Been dry AF
Posted by elposter
Member since Dec 2010
26508 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 2:23 pm to
What is the timing on this thing? Is this mostly a threat to the Gulf in the next week or further out than that?
This post was edited on 9/12/19 at 2:25 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

I need some rain. Been dry AF



My yard is holding up nicely to the lack of rain at least. Could live with it staying dry. Makes cutting easy.

If the Euro is right, it's going to be pretty dry moving forward. The pattern over the next ten days looks much the same as recent, warmer than normal and dry outside of pop up thunderstorms. Very summerlike.

Looking after the Vandy game for any real relief. At least the heights are showing up a little lower as the month goes on. Not a "cold front" but hopefully out of the mid 90s by the end of next week.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100046 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 2:55 pm to
Recent Euro has a 959 mb hurricane going up the east coast and the eye wall grazing Long Island as a major hurricane
This post was edited on 9/12/19 at 3:12 pm
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
24572 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

Not a "cold front" but hopefully out of the mid 90s by the end of next week


Wasn't it yesterday in this thread that people were talking about lows in the 50s next week? Has that changed to, hopefully out of the mid 90s in just a day?
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
128892 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

Recent Euro has a 959 mb hurricane going up the east coast and the eyeball grazing Long Island as a major hurricane


TWC studios just exploded in jizz
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
146216 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 3:06 pm to
quote:

quote:

Recent Euro has a 959 mb hurricane going up the east coast and the eyeball grazing Long Island as a major hurricane

TWC studios just exploded in jizz

I believe this literal scenario is in 1 of the "what if this happens" shows that airs late night
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

Wasn't it yesterday in this thread that people were talking about lows in the 50s next week? Has that changed to, hopefully out of the mid 90s in just a day?


It was based on a model run, so it wasn't exactly expected.

quote:

Recent Euro has a 959 mb hurricane going up the east coast and the eyeball grazing Long Island as a major hurricane


00z did it too. Long way out and a left turn isn't exactly following climo. So just keep an eye on the trend.

On the other hand, the Euro did nail Sandy.
This post was edited on 9/12/19 at 3:11 pm
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100046 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 3:12 pm to
It was. The surge from a direct hit of a Cat 4-5 would top the seawalls in Manhattan and flood the city
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24679 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 3:18 pm to
quote:




Is that a hurricane forming over Mizzou?
This post was edited on 9/12/19 at 3:18 pm
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12538 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 3:33 pm to
Recon looks like dry air entrained near and in the vicinity of 95L. Lowest Press : 1010 mb . No strong winds yet.
Posted by Glock17
Member since Oct 2007
23018 posts
Posted on 9/12/19 at 4:04 pm to
Looks like the first tracks are out

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