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Message

re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks

Posted on 7/6/21 at 4:59 pm to
Posted by Mr Clean
Power I-Formation
Member since Aug 2006
52655 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 4:59 pm to
quote:

How hard is TWC praying it becomes a hurricane before landfall?



On the contrary, they said not to worry about the classification of the storm. That it will be a dangerous storm regardless so don’t pay attention to the label
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
31976 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

Mike Adcock
@MikeAdcockWx

Recon mission 14 set to depart momentarily to investigate #Elsa as it nears hurricane status. Another mission is on deck for early Wednesday morning before service resumes Thursday evening, if necessary.


Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
104760 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 5:27 pm to
quote:

On the contrary, they said not to worry about the classification of the storm. That it will be a dangerous storm regardless so don’t pay attention to the label


They’re guarding against it not making hurricane status and trying to get you to tune in either way because your life is in danger.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67056 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 5:55 pm to
quote:

CitizenK

quote:

Looks like the eye passing right next to this buoy. Under 50 kets sustained, not the 60 that NHC is saying.


quote:

Philippe Papin
@pppapin
Earlier, #Elsa passed directly over Buoy 42023 and recorded sustained winds of 58 kt gusting to 68 kt. Certainly some ground truth to verify the estimated 60 kt intensity right now.

Still forecast to become a #hurricane before landfall sometime in the next 12-18 hours.


Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
10029 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:08 pm to
quote:

Earlier, #Elsa passed directly over Buoy 42023 and recorded sustained winds of 58 kt gusting to 68 kt. Certainly some ground truth to verify the estimated 60 kt intensity right now.

Still forecast to become a #hurricane before landfall sometime in the next 12-18 hours.


If past performance by the NHC is any indication. They will wait until it is on land to give it the Hurricane designation as they did with Claudette when they gave it a name when it was on land near Houma. The alternative is that they wait until after the season is over like other storms to give it the upgrade, in 2005 Cindy was upgraded to a Hurricane after the storm season, and Zeta was upgraded to a Cat 3 at landfall after the season.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172737 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:16 pm to
It looks rather decent on Tampa radar. It’s definitely getting more organized.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172737 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:23 pm to
It has that minimal hurricane look

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:24 pm to
Agreed.

The fricking Euro...
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172737 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:26 pm to
Tampa Bay is an extremely rare landfall area. It may go a little north but I hope it shoots the Bay just for the rarity of it.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:30 pm to
This path is the stuff of nightmares two categories higher.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172737 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:33 pm to
Everyone absolutely lost their shite in 2004 because they thought that’s where Hurricane Charley was going before it turned to the west and made landfall farther south.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172737 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:36 pm to
Dat underground power grid
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:45 pm to
It's time Boat.

Got an official Cane in the Gulf.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
31976 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:48 pm to
quote:

National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic

Hurricane #Elsa Advisory 27A: Elsa Regains Hurricane Status Southwest of Tampa Bay. Reconnaissance Aircraft En Route to Investigate the Hurricane.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:49 pm to
Yeah, going to be paying some attention to this recon.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67056 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 7:11 pm to
One thing is for certain, Elsa just won't let it go.



That's my first and only Elsa joke. I haven't seen the movie, so I don't even know what it means.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67056 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 7:12 pm to
quote:

It's time Boat.

Yes, yes it is.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
126045 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 7:23 pm to
A lot of FL folks expecting a nothingburger are in for a nice surprise
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 7:25 pm to
I do still wonder how much of the wind ends up getting to the ground fighting the shear as it is (kind of like Zeta last year) but yeah it's coming in hot.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
31976 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 7:27 pm to
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