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Started By
Message
re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:34 am to deltaland
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:34 am to deltaland
quote:
It’s over performing on intensity so far.
As mentioned yesterday, a stronger more organized system will have a more westward component of motion and less NE over the next day or so. It will be interesting to watch today if this tracks on the southern side of guidance or not. Also, ensembles aren't high enough resolution to resolve hurricanes and are usually too weak, so a stronger system might track even south of the southern edge of the ensemble spread.
0
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:36 am to LegendInMyMind
Any chance this comes to Louisiana?
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:40 am to DhanTigers212
quote:
Any chance this comes to Louisiana?
RIP Lake Chuck
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:40 am to DhanTigers212
quote:
Any chance at all this storm comes to Louisiana or can I go about my weekend without worrying about this thing.
Very unlikely at this time.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:42 am to DhanTigers212
quote:
Any chance this comes to Louisiana?
All I can say is that the GFS, in particular, has been consistent run-to-run on a Western FL Peninsula landfall. It hasn't had even a Panhandle landfall since early Wednesday.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:42 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:43 am to DhanTigers212
quote:
Any chance this comes to Louisiana?
Possible. The cone moves every update. And if I'm not mistaken the cone has 95% certainty.
As mentioned, stronger means more west and less north. That could lead to a later turn.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:49 am to Bobby OG Johnson
How far it has come in 24hrs given what it has to work with is pretty damn surprising.
Could that be what the GFS is picking up on that keeps it from really falling apart around Haiti/DR and Jamaica? If so, that is a pretty significant meso feature to pick up on days out.
Could that be what the GFS is picking up on that keeps it from really falling apart around Haiti/DR and Jamaica? If so, that is a pretty significant meso feature to pick up on days out.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:49 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 7/2/21 at 7:54 am to Roll Tide Ravens
At least it is one I can see. Alot of the you can't view if you aren't on Facebook.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:00 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:15 am to Bestbank Tiger
2/3 probability cone. If anyone want's to read more about how accurate the cone is : LINK
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:20 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
The cone moves every update. And if I'm not mistaken the cone has 95% certainty.
How can both of these be true?
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:23 am to HurricanesArentReal
quote:
2/3 probability cone. If anyone want's to read more about how accurate the cone is : LINK
By:
quote:
HurricanesArentReal
Nah......I'm good, thanks.
Oh, and thanks for the BINGO square.
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 8:27 am
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:26 am to LegendInMyMind
Just wanted to chime in to say frick this hurricane and it’s projected path.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:27 am to PhiTiger1764
Is it in the Caribbean yet?
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:33 am to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:35 am to goodgrin
quote:
It's just a tropical storm with winds that will top out around 60 mph. Calm the frick down.
Damn, what a hot take
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:45 am to rds dc
Are we gonna have to look at this stupid Jack Black gif all hurricane season?
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:48 am to PetroBabich
What should I expect in Fort Lauderdale? And when?
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