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re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks

Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:11 pm to
Posted by threeputtforbogie
Addison, TX
Member since Sep 2017
973 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:11 pm to
Latest GFS has it more west coming over Cuba. Will be interesting to see what it does once in the gulf.
Posted by DhanTigers212
Member since Dec 2014
10389 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:14 pm to
I saw that too. It keeps shifting west and things are going to get squirly.
Posted by threeputtforbogie
Addison, TX
Member since Sep 2017
973 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:19 pm to
Still armpit of Florida per GFS but I think a tad stronger than earlier today.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71321 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:35 pm to
That's the biggest track swing GFS has had in several runs, and it wasn't the direction I thought it would be.

A good bit farther North on FL landfall and 10mb lower pressure.

This run actually takes it almost right over Jamaica, so a bit South of prior runs. That seems to push back a bit West on the Cuban landfall. Per usual, it still doesn't weaken it due to land interaction. It is a bit weaker after it passes through the Windward Islands this run.

This run keeps it on land through the Carolinas as well.

This run also slows it down more from the 18z. FL landfall would be ~24hrs later than the prior run.
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 11:40 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71321 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:42 pm to
quote:

I saw that too. It keeps shifting west and things are going to get squirly.

As far as the Cuban landfall goes, the 00z GFS just brought the track back to where the 12z and 06z runs were. In regards to overall Western shifts, today's runs of the GFS were a wash.
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
42860 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:43 pm to
quote:

That's the biggest track swing GFS has had in several runs, and it wasn't the direction I thought it would be.


Weekend fast approaching. Lots of eyes on the weather channel. Gotta get this thing closer to New Orleans.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71321 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:49 pm to
quote:

Weekend fast approaching. Lots of eyes on the weather channel. Gotta get this thing closer to New Orleans.

When I said it was the biggest track swing from the GFS in a while, I meant relative to previous runs. In reality, it isn't much different than this morning's runs. The 18z just had a bigger shift South and East in regards to the FL landfall and where it crossed Cuba. The 00z brought it back to where it was earlier today.
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 11:52 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:51 pm to
quote:

Weekend fast approaching. Lots of eyes on the weather channel. Gotta get this thing closer to New Orleans.


You think they want New Orleans over a Tampacane?
Posted by ezride25
Constitutional Republic
Member since Nov 2008
26210 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:51 pm to
Are we going to have to repeatedly watch those depictions of what it’s like when the water is yay high again all season?
Posted by Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
23290 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:51 pm to
quote:

Gotta get this thing closer to New Orleans.





For what reason?
Posted by Dlab2013
Pineville, Luzianna
Member since Jun 2013
9266 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:58 pm to
quote:



You think they want New Orleans over a Tampacane?


Both are always a hype point. But as low as Tampa is, it would be a devastating flood event if a storm ever hit it just right.

But it’s never been hit.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71321 posts
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:59 pm to
Which storm was it a few years ago that emptied Tampa Bay for a while?

ETA: It was Irma
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 12:05 am
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:01 am to
quote:

it’s never been hit.




It did back like 70 years ago. I'm sure The Boat's autistic arse will come in with the exact date.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:37 am to


Once again the HRWF gets this thing spicy.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
32092 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:48 am to
quote:

Once again the HRWF gets this thing spicy.

Posted by Wolfhound45
Member since Nov 2009
125730 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 1:50 am to
quote:

But it’s never been hit.
I can tell you that Irma was no fun in 2017.
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
45246 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:04 am to
quote:

as low as Tampa is, it would be a devastating flood event if a storm ever hit it just right.



Years ago, some study said a Cat 3, just off the coast would put 14' of water into downtown Tampa. All of those smokeshow waitresses at Hat Tricks would be unemployed.
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
45246 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:07 am to
quote:

I can tell you that Irma was no fun in 2017.



The eye went between you and me. Thanks for no eye contact.
Posted by liz18lsu
Naples, FL
Member since Feb 2009
17895 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:12 am to
quote:

ETA: It was Irma



That was a fun one.

quote:

The eye went between you and me.


Watched it go over. I had never seen that before. It was pretty cool.
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 5:16 am
Posted by DhanTigers212
Member since Dec 2014
10389 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:17 am to
Any chance at all this storm comes to Louisiana or can I go about my weekend without worrying about this thing.
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