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Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:14 pm to threeputtforbogie
I saw that too. It keeps shifting west and things are going to get squirly.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:19 pm to DhanTigers212
Still armpit of Florida per GFS but I think a tad stronger than earlier today.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:35 pm to threeputtforbogie
That's the biggest track swing GFS has had in several runs, and it wasn't the direction I thought it would be.
A good bit farther North on FL landfall and 10mb lower pressure.
This run actually takes it almost right over Jamaica, so a bit South of prior runs. That seems to push back a bit West on the Cuban landfall. Per usual, it still doesn't weaken it due to land interaction. It is a bit weaker after it passes through the Windward Islands this run.
This run keeps it on land through the Carolinas as well.
This run also slows it down more from the 18z. FL landfall would be ~24hrs later than the prior run.
A good bit farther North on FL landfall and 10mb lower pressure.
This run actually takes it almost right over Jamaica, so a bit South of prior runs. That seems to push back a bit West on the Cuban landfall. Per usual, it still doesn't weaken it due to land interaction. It is a bit weaker after it passes through the Windward Islands this run.
This run keeps it on land through the Carolinas as well.
This run also slows it down more from the 18z. FL landfall would be ~24hrs later than the prior run.
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 11:40 pm
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:42 pm to DhanTigers212
quote:
I saw that too. It keeps shifting west and things are going to get squirly.
As far as the Cuban landfall goes, the 00z GFS just brought the track back to where the 12z and 06z runs were. In regards to overall Western shifts, today's runs of the GFS were a wash.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:43 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
That's the biggest track swing GFS has had in several runs, and it wasn't the direction I thought it would be.
Weekend fast approaching. Lots of eyes on the weather channel. Gotta get this thing closer to New Orleans.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:49 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Weekend fast approaching. Lots of eyes on the weather channel. Gotta get this thing closer to New Orleans.
When I said it was the biggest track swing from the GFS in a while, I meant relative to previous runs. In reality, it isn't much different than this morning's runs. The 18z just had a bigger shift South and East in regards to the FL landfall and where it crossed Cuba. The 00z brought it back to where it was earlier today.
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 11:52 pm
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:51 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Weekend fast approaching. Lots of eyes on the weather channel. Gotta get this thing closer to New Orleans.
You think they want New Orleans over a Tampacane?
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:51 pm to OysterPoBoy
Are we going to have to repeatedly watch those depictions of what it’s like when the water is yay high again all season?
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:51 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Gotta get this thing closer to New Orleans.
For what reason?
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:58 pm to Duke
quote:
You think they want New Orleans over a Tampacane?
Both are always a hype point. But as low as Tampa is, it would be a devastating flood event if a storm ever hit it just right.
But it’s never been hit.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:59 pm to Dlab2013
Which storm was it a few years ago that emptied Tampa Bay for a while?
ETA: It was Irma
ETA: It was Irma
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 12:05 am
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:01 am to Dlab2013
quote:
it’s never been hit.
It did back like 70 years ago. I'm sure The Boat's autistic arse will come in with the exact date.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:37 am to Duke
Once again the HRWF gets this thing spicy.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:48 am to Duke
quote:
Once again the HRWF gets this thing spicy.

Posted on 7/2/21 at 1:50 am to Dlab2013
quote:I can tell you that Irma was no fun in 2017.
But it’s never been hit.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:04 am to Dlab2013
quote:
as low as Tampa is, it would be a devastating flood event if a storm ever hit it just right.
Years ago, some study said a Cat 3, just off the coast would put 14' of water into downtown Tampa. All of those smokeshow waitresses at Hat Tricks would be unemployed.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:07 am to Wolfhound45
quote:
I can tell you that Irma was no fun in 2017.
The eye went between you and me. Thanks for no eye contact.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:12 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
ETA: It was Irma
That was a fun one.
quote:
The eye went between you and me.
Watched it go over. I had never seen that before. It was pretty cool.
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 5:16 am
Posted on 7/2/21 at 5:17 am to rds dc
Any chance at all this storm comes to Louisiana or can I go about my weekend without worrying about this thing.
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