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Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:28 am to Oates Mustache
The rule of thumb; a weaker system will go more west with the low level flow and a stronger storm will feel the upper level flow more.
Currently the storm is rapidly moving west keeping it weak. If this continues it could miss the islands and be more of a GOM threat.
Strengthening in the short term might be our friend.
Currently the storm is rapidly moving west keeping it weak. If this continues it could miss the islands and be more of a GOM threat.
Strengthening in the short term might be our friend.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:41 am to doubleb
quote:
The rule of thumb; a weaker system will go more west with the low level flow and a stronger storm will feel the upper level flow more.
Currently the storm is rapidly moving west keeping it weak. If this continues it could miss the islands and be more of a GOM threat.
Strengthening in the short term might be our friend.
Typically this holds true but currently models show a setup in a couple of days that would pull a weaker system quickly off to the north while a stronger system would move slower and more westward.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:45 am to Tornado Alley
sigh
NB4 Punta Cana
NB4 Florida canceling a football game
NB4 Stone Cold gif
NB4 Lootie
Looks like you missed an important one.
NB4 Punta Cana
NB4 Florida canceling a football game
NB4 Stone Cold gif
NB4 Lootie
Looks like you missed an important one.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 10:58 am to rds dc
quote:
Typically this holds true but currently models show a setup in a couple of days that would pull a weaker system quickly off to the north while a stronger system would move slower and more westward.
So the upper level winds are more out of the east and the low level flow is more out of the south?
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:00 am to MrLSU
Problem Kenny?????
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:02 am to dukke v
quote:
Problem
Yes, you are a problem. Lsu Coyote will take care of you though.
GFS is running.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:05 am to Bobby OG Johnson
that's one of the best memes we've had in a long while
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:09 am to Cole Beer
GFS finding that weakness in the ridge just south of the tip of Florida at 114 hours. It's a stronger system too from last run.
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 11:10 am
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:09 am to Cole Beer
Are 95 and 97 one storm now? All the updates I saw this morning just showing Elsa, not 2 storms.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:12 am to Oates Mustache
The GFS has been one consistent beast of a model with this system. Not any huge changes so far from last run or even the last several runs. It starts hooking east at 132 hours toward the western Central Florida coast.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:13 am to doubleb
quote:
So the upper level winds are more out of the east and the low level flow is more out of the south?
Essentially.
Then, if the system is stronger and more SW like the GFS is showing the setup over the Gulf looks tricky. The Euro has a ridge over the Gulf but no system. The GFS has a system moving into the Gulf but has a PV streamer (trough) in place. Theoretically, the outflow from a stronger system could fracture the PV streamer resulting in an ULL low towards Texas and a ridge over the Gulf.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:15 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
It starts hooking east at 132 hours toward the western Central Florida coast.
Like Charlie? Maybe if we can get Liz to dump tons of dry ice in the gulf...
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:17 am to rds dc
weaker storm > farther west
stronger storm > farther east
stronger storm > farther east
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:18 am to Hangit
At this point it looks like the GFS wants to take it just north of Tampa at around 980mb (threshold of a Cat 1).
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:18 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
Have you looked at the GFS ensembles? That's a pretty significant shift west, with a much bigger cluster over the Louisiana coast now.
Random Facebook Hurricane Page, is that you ?
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:20 am to Prominentwon
That's factual. The latest ensembles cluster a good bit over Louisiana, a change from the last ensemble run. I induced no fear mongering like "Tropical Storm Central". 
Go take a look at that one BTW, it's a real piece of work.
Go take a look at that one BTW, it's a real piece of work.
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 11:23 am
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:24 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
The latest ensembles cluster a good bit over Louisiana
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:27 am to Oates Mustache
GFS FL landfall is a little farther North than the trend yesterday. It also continues to thread the needle and miss most land interaction with Haiti/DR and Jamaica. Last two runs have taken it farther West over Cuba. Strength trend is more or less the same.
If you want consistency out of a model, the GFS has given it over the past 2 and half days. Now, let's see if it will be consistently right or consistently wrong.
If you want consistency out of a model, the GFS has given it over the past 2 and half days. Now, let's see if it will be consistently right or consistently wrong.
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 11:30 am
Posted on 7/1/21 at 11:29 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
I induced no fear mongering like "Tropical Storm Central".
I hate that guy just as much as our local meteorologists do.
What’s the strategy here? “Oh, let’s just post the most heinous model I can find and try to convince people I’m not about hype or followers!”
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