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Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:07 pm to rds dc
Can't believe I watched 9 minutes of that
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:34 pm to Chad504boy
My man BayTiger doing work as usual.
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:39 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/25/15 at 9:42 pm to Catman88
quote:
Horizontal Erika.. stacked
Only 1:28 seconds.. come on! Tyler put in a good 9:00 mins
Posted on 8/25/15 at 10:03 pm to rds dc
I wonder how long they can keep this at TS?
Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive
000
WTNT45 KNHC 260254
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
Both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter planes investigated Erika
and found a disorganized storm. The central pressure rose to 1006
mb, and the strongest winds were confined to the eastern semicircle.
The low-level center remains exposed to the north of the limited
thunderstorm activity. Based on the current appearance on satellite
imagery, and data from the plane, the initial intensity is
generously kept at 35 kt.
Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive
000
WTNT45 KNHC 260254
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
Both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter planes investigated Erika
and found a disorganized storm. The central pressure rose to 1006
mb, and the strongest winds were confined to the eastern semicircle.
The low-level center remains exposed to the north of the limited
thunderstorm activity. Based on the current appearance on satellite
imagery, and data from the plane, the initial intensity is
generously kept at 35 kt.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 2:24 am to rds dc
She's exploding at the moment.
00z GFS takes her into the gulf and sits near florida as an open wave.
00z HWRF takes a direct hit on the Bahamas, then into Boca Raton as a high Cat 1.
The 00z GFDL goes apeshit... that's all.
00z Euro takes her into Miami, then up through florida into the atlantic, before the ridge closes in and pushes her back in the gulf
00z GFS takes her into the gulf and sits near florida as an open wave.
00z HWRF takes a direct hit on the Bahamas, then into Boca Raton as a high Cat 1.
The 00z GFDL goes apeshit... that's all.
00z Euro takes her into Miami, then up through florida into the atlantic, before the ridge closes in and pushes her back in the gulf
Posted on 8/26/15 at 2:40 am to GEAUXmedic
shite. 
Posted on 8/26/15 at 3:34 am to GEAUXmedic
Oh my gosh. Cat 1-2 by daybreak?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 3:37 am to rmnldr
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 56.0W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis,
and the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
This post was edited on 8/26/15 at 4:01 am
Posted on 8/26/15 at 3:42 am to rmnldr
quote:
Oh my gosh. Cat 1-2 by daybreak?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 4:51 am to GEAUXmedic
No, this thing was supposed to go out to sea and not make it into the Gulf. That's what I was told by the anti-Gulf Nazis in earlier pages. Just about the only thing consistent so far has been the gradual shift to a more southern and westward track to south Florida and into the Gulf.
It doesn't take a meteorologist to see what's going on here. We all have seen this with the tropics enough times to notice this trend before it's officially acknowledged.
We'll wait and see obviously but it appears that a gulf threat is becoming more possible.
It doesn't take a meteorologist to see what's going on here. We all have seen this with the tropics enough times to notice this trend before it's officially acknowledged.
We'll wait and see obviously but it appears that a gulf threat is becoming more possible.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 4:53 am to baytiger
So Bay...what is your gut feeling? SELA hit by 168 hours?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 5:00 am to CCT
Posted on 8/26/15 at 5:07 am to CCT
honestly I'm not sure anymore. I'm still confident that this isn't an east coast event but the Florida, Gulf, and Atlantic solutions all seem pretty viable.
I don't think we're looking at a very strong storm if it makes it to the Gulf though.
00Z ECMWF is pretty interesting.. it develops the storm pretty well for a Miami landfall, rides up the peninsula... and then rides back down... staying at least a TS the whole way. But there's yet to be a consistent ECMWF solution for two straight model runs so I wouldn't put much stock in it yet.
GFS has consistently kept a solution killing the storm and having it enter the gulf as a wave where it either develops slightly or just dies. But the GFS hasn't been particularly good lately so even consistent results should be taken with a grain of salt.
I don't think we're looking at a very strong storm if it makes it to the Gulf though.
00Z ECMWF is pretty interesting.. it develops the storm pretty well for a Miami landfall, rides up the peninsula... and then rides back down... staying at least a TS the whole way. But there's yet to be a consistent ECMWF solution for two straight model runs so I wouldn't put much stock in it yet.
GFS has consistently kept a solution killing the storm and having it enter the gulf as a wave where it either develops slightly or just dies. But the GFS hasn't been particularly good lately so even consistent results should be taken with a grain of salt.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 5:10 am to baytiger
Well, we could use some rain for the teal season. 
Posted on 8/26/15 at 5:20 am to baytiger
For some reason I was surprised to see it come back over Florida to the Gulf. I guess I was expecting a fish. From everything I've read, it seems to be that even if the models shift left and Erica shoots the straights into the gulf, the gulf is just not conducive to development. Right? Is the shear still forecast to be high? I don't know how to read those maps.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 5:29 am to CCT
Dammit I'm right in the middle of the cone of destruction with the new track. It's been 10 years since Wilma hit. I bet a bunch of people canceled their wind policies in the last few years.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 8:07 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
She's exploding at the moment.
The system has maintained some really deep convection overnight but it has stayed offset from the LLC. The 00z Euro EPS is pretty tightly clustered around S. Florida and they all remain fairly weak. The models are still struggling a bit with the evolution of the trough over the Gulf stretching up towards the Lakes but are in better agreement than yesterday.
The HWRF is picking up on the fact that there is a ridge over the top of the system but the GFDL is still trying to sniff out a weakness so it can go gang busters.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 8:10 am to baytiger
quote:
00Z ECMWF is pretty interesting.. it develops the storm pretty well for a Miami landfall, rides up the peninsula... and then rides back down... staying at least a TS the whole way. But there's yet to be a consistent ECMWF solution for two straight model runs so I wouldn't put much stock in it yet.
The EPS has been more consistent with a weak system heading towards S. Florida. The last two Euro runs have been in that ballpark, so it may be locking in on a solution through D4/5 but things still look tricky after that.
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