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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 6/18/21 at 12:52 pm to deuce985
Im going to 30A next thursday...you think it will be good by then?
Posted on 6/18/21 at 12:57 pm to LSUcdro
quote:
Im going to 30A next thursday...you think it will be good by then?
They should be able to pick up the plastic lawn furniture by then.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 12:59 pm to rds dc
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0346
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1248 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana and coastal areas of
Mississippi
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 181647Z - 190000Z
Summary...A flash-flood risk will emerge through the evening hours
as Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 makes its slow approach to the
Louisiana coastline.
Discussion...Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 continues a slow
northward movement toward the Louisiana coastline and was located
roughly 220 miles south of Houma at 15Z. On the eastern periphery
of this cyclone, strong, broadly confluent low-level flow was
contributing to widespread showers and thunderstorms that was just
beginning to impact far southeastern Louisiana per recent radar
imagery. The band of convection extends well southward into the
central Gulf of Mexico within a weakly buoyant, but very moist
airmass characterized by 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE and 2.2+ inch PW
values, respectively. This axis of convection is oriented
favorably with the projected track of PTC 3 to produce several
hours of moderate to heavy rainfall - potentially well beyond the
expiration of this MPD. Precip rates are relatively light
currently, but should increase over time and with spatial extent
from southeast to northwest across the discussion area especially
after 19Z or so. Precipitation rates of 1-2.5 inches per hour
will eventually materialize - especially in any heavier bands that
can emerge. The slow forward motion of the TC will also result in
prolonged heavy rainfall potential as well. The prolonged
rainfall potential will gradually moisten soils and lower FFG
thresholds, increasing the flash flood threat especially after 20Z
and beyond.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:00 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
They should be able to pick up the plastic lawn furniture by then.
posting that meme now would be too premature and just considered fishing for BINGO
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:01 pm to Duke
Lol’d at the guy who posted the stone cold gif several days ago having that post whacked out of the thread. I bet it was Rummy who did that to uphold the sanctity of the stone cold gif.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:01 pm to rds dc
Latoya has assured us the pumps are functioning 100% and any flooding is the result of white people flushing toilets too much
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:02 pm to rds dc
This is what I was hitting on yesterday for the southshore.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:04 pm to The Boat
These pretenders.
Some things still have to mean something!
Some things still have to mean something!
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:06 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
They should be able to pick up the plastic lawn furniture by then.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:06 pm to Duke
quote:
Latoya has assured us the pumps are functioning 100% and any flooding is the result of white people flushing toilets too much
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:09 pm to rds dc
Heavier rain approaching NOLA. Start the pumps.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:09 pm to The Boat
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:10 pm to NorthEndZone
Kinda liking the path coming right at me since it lessens the odds for another direct hit later in the season since it wouldn’t be fair
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:11 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Kinda liking the path coming right at me since it lessens the odds for another direct hit later in the season since it wouldn’t be fair
Thats not how this works
Every event is reset random probability
As LC folks know
This post was edited on 6/18/21 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:12 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Kinda liking the path coming right at me since it lessens the odds for another direct hit later in the season since it wouldn’t be fair
Yea, that worked out for Calceshieu Parish last year.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:15 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
SlidellCajun
Are you weatherboy on stormcast by any chance? He’s from Slidell too and he has been jizzing all over himself and then licking it back up since the spring over the idea of hurricane season. He’s been on cloud fricking nine since this piss ant system developed.
This post was edited on 6/18/21 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:16 pm to NorthEndZone
Still not a TS but winds estimated at 45 mph sustained...
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north to north-northeast motion
is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the
southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the
weekend.
Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The circulation is
gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical storm is likely to
form over the north-central Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles east of
the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71
km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (82 km/h) at an elevation of 125
feet (38 meters).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74
inches).
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north to north-northeast motion
is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the
southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the
weekend.
Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The circulation is
gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical storm is likely to
form over the north-central Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles east of
the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71
km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (82 km/h) at an elevation of 125
feet (38 meters).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74
inches).
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:22 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Kinda liking the path coming right at me since it lessens the odds for another direct hit later in the season since it wouldn’t be fair
Tell that to Lake Charles last year.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:27 pm to Cosmo
Nothingburgers deserve stunning steve austin gifs.
The big boys deserve austin 3:16.
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