re: Tropical Storm Claudette - Heading Out Sea

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and the insurance companies love it that way. And the insurance commissioner is complicit.

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Eh, I can only partially agree with that. There are lots of rating factors that the companies don’t advertise BUT will give you if you request the info. Most of anything you ever wanted to know about how your policy works can be found in the policy document, though. If it’s not there, your agent and the insurance department can explain to you. Consumers have resources available to them. Hell, I’ve been doing insurance for nearly ten years and I had a question that I didn’t know the answer to recently and called the insurance commissioner and his office answered it for me. It was a very professional and pleasant experience. People just get so butthurt over anything related to insurance that they shut down and resort to calling all the companies evil. Makes them look ignorant 9/10 times.

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Freezer?? I just drink the leftovers straight from the spigot.

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Now I'm really confused. You should be growing hair, not losing it by doing this!

I have half a pallet of one year old Vienna sausages for sale. Can part out if need be.

great, headed to New Orleans tomorrow, and leaving for Western NC Sunday. Looks like our drive is going to suck on Sunday (assuming we can get out of NOLA). I guess I'll have to insist our hotel room be on a high floor!

good news....so a nothingburger?

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so a nothingburger?

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For the most part, except for that little window Friday night where the NE side gets a heavy band. That has some southshore risk depending on how hot the convection is. You know, like a strong thunderstorm with flash flooding.

So the pub crawl I’m going to Saturday in Nola should be good to go?

We looking at any kind of a wind field? Wondering because the D becomes an S for about a day.

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We looking at any kind of a wind field? Wondering because the D becomes an S for about a day.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with
the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection is
beginning to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of
the system, similar to what one might see in a developing
subtropical cyclone. Although the upper-level winds are not
particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear
over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical
cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so. Given the proximity of
the disturbance to land, which requires tropical storm warnings at
this time, advisories are being initiated on this system as a
potential tropical cyclone.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was still
rather broad. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently
investigating the system and has not yet found a well-defined
center. Maximum winds based on surface observations and the
scatterometer pass are near 25 kt. Numerical intensity guidance do
not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system
reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end
of the guidance.

Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial
motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain. The system is expected
to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the
next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf
Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a
mid-level anticyclone near Florida. The official track forecast is
closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions. It should be noted,
however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center
near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest
Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable
flash, urban, and small stream flooding beginning Friday and
continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf coast and
spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED