re: Tornado outbreak, 94 dead, Upwards of 100 unaccounted for search/rescue & cleanup ongoing

They've banned Reed Timmer from tick tock for "dangerous acts".

You can break your neck doing the "milk crate challenge", but don't you dare chase a storm.

Enhanced has been expanded, and they at least are considering an upgrade to a Moderate risk.

quote:

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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Thu Dec 09 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the evening and overnight hours across the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. Nocturnal tornado threat is expected with this activity along with the possibility for a few strong tornadoes.

...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valley region... Strong upper trough will progress across the Rockies into the Plains by 11/00z then into the mid/upper MS Valley by the end of the period as an intense 500mb speed max (100-110kt) translates into IL late. In response to this feature a surface low will deepen as it tracks from southern KS to north of CHI by 11/06z then into northern lower MI by daybreak Saturday. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this strongly dynamic trough. Serious consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along the MS delta region of eastern AR into the lower OH River valley. Despite the nocturnal initiation, strong tornadoes are possible with supercells Friday night.

Southwesterly LLJ is expected to increase across eastern TX/lower MS early in the period. This southerly branch of the LLJ will encourage higher-quality boundary-layer air mass to advance north into the mid MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Early this morning, lower 70s surface dew points are noted as far north as PSN to IER over eastern TX/LA with lower 60s dew points into central AR. There is little reason to doubt moisture will advance into MO/IL ahead of the front as capping will prevent appreciable convection until mostly after sunset. Latest model guidance suggests moisture advection/cooling profiles aloft will result in destabilization ahead of the surface low such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by 11/02-03z across MO. There is great disparity among the latest HREF regarding timing/spatial distribution of convection during the initiation phase after sunset. Based on forecast soundings have opted to increase severe probabilities farther west across the warm sector ahead of the surface front in MO. Latest thinking is scattered supercells could develop by 03z then track northeast within a very strongly sheared environment. With thunderstorms not expected to develop until after dark diurnal heating will not contribute appreciably to buoyancy across this region. Even so, parameter space appears very favorable for supercells, and with dew points expected to rise into the lower 60s, a few strong, longer-lived tornadoes seem plausible.

Convection should be strongly forced across northern portions of the outlook where intense 500mb flow and strong height falls should aid frontal convection. While wind profiles will support supercells through sunrise, there will be a propensity to evolve into a squall line with more eastward movement. Tornadoes and wind are the primary severe threats, though some hail may be noted with early-evening supercells over MO/AR.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/10/2021

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You can certainly feel the Southerly wind pulling the moisture in. It felt like it got warmer as the evening went on tonight.

This isn’t looking good for Memphis.

Luckily I just picked my rain coat up from the cleaners.

Everything shifted north on this update.

Definitely feels like a severe weather day. Warm humid and strong southern wind. Sky has “that look”

In South BR, walked outside this morning, its disgusting.. Porch covered in Dew... Humid as hell out there

For those readers here that think December tornadoes are nothing special, I will point out the December 16, 2000 tornado that came through Tuscaloosa and killed a dozen people.
Also it's the one tornado that I got hit by.
James Spann live coverage of December 2000 tornado

They keep upping the high temp for today. Sun it out it was supposed to stay cloudy but the sun is bright and heating quickly. Supposed to get to 82 now.

I really think the instability will be worse here than expected. It’s so humid the paved roads are soaking wet and puddling water and it hasn’t rained

You can see the humidity haze against the trees. It just feels unstable out here I don’t know what the dew point will reach but I’m betting it gets higher than originally expected