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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:24 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
NBC10 just showed a picture of a wall cloud that was a good mile wide in the Columbia area about an hour ago. That cell is now producing conditions favorable for a tornado around winnsboro, and they are projected that cell to head to the north and east. If the projections are right, I could be in the path of that sucker in about 45min or so.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:25 pm to WeeWee
Be careful baws
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:26 pm to jamalsdeck
quote:
Can anyone give some positive news
No
quote:
Weather scares me man!!
I would talk shite and call you a sissie, but I am in the path of the next big cell and I don't want to jinx myself.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:26 pm to GEAUXmedic
Gotcha.
So far in BR it has that feeling of bad weather. Sticky humid and the clouds are moving on along.
Not very windy though, just a light breeze.
So far in BR it has that feeling of bad weather. Sticky humid and the clouds are moving on along.
Not very windy though, just a light breeze.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:30 pm to Duke
NWS issued a tornado warning on a local channel KLWB for LaSalle parish, Winn, Grant
and Google
and Google
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:34 pm to Captain Lafitte
Just an idea of what should pop things off tonight.
And cause I know someone will ask
And cause I know someone will ask
quote:
In meteorology, convective available potential energy (CAPE) is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability, which makes it very valuable in predicting severe weather.
quote:
1 - 1,500 Positive
1,500 - 2,500 Large
2,500+ Extreme
This post was edited on 11/29/16 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:36 pm to GEAUXmedic
3 kJ/kg would certainly qualify as "enough instability".
When do the soundings come rolling out?
ETA: CAPE is basically potential for air to lift upwards. Bigger temp diferential and amount of moisture available, more lift.
When do the soundings come rolling out?
ETA: CAPE is basically potential for air to lift upwards. Bigger temp diferential and amount of moisture available, more lift.
This post was edited on 11/29/16 at 5:38 pm
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:38 pm to Captain Lafitte
Nice JUGS in your AVA!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:38 pm to Duke
Not sure when LIX plans on one. The soundings from the models are still showing a good environment.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:40 pm to GEAUXmedic
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA...SOUTHEAST TX...AND FAR
SOUTHERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 292337Z - 300200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND THIS INCLUDES A RISK FOR TORNADOES.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...RICH MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A GULF-MODIFIED AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY AND POINTS
EASTWARD AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES ARE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER A BROAD
PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND VICINITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70-72F ARE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH EVEN RICHER
MOISTURE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG AND LITTLE MLCINH.
WHILE AMPLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
50-55 KT IN SUPPORT OF CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT MAY REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. AS SUCH...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST FROM
WEST-CENTRAL LA TO SOUTHEAST TX...AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD SLOWLY
SPREAD EASTWARD. WITH DEEP SHEAR VECTORS MAINTAINING AT LEAST SOME
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL COMPONENT...THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXHIBIT MORE
QUASI-LINEAR/CONVECTIVE-CLUSTER MODES. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT WEAK WARM ADVECTION FARTHER EAST COULD ENCOURAGE
MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA/SOUTHERN
MS. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY MAY HAVE MORE OF A PROPENSITY TO BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR...AND ESPECIALLY BE SUPPORTED LATER THIS EVENING AS
EVEN RICHER MOISTURE SPREADS ONSHORE.
GIVEN AMPLE DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...
AND GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- ESPECIALLY EASTWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN MS -- THE RISK FOR ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES COULD EXIST. HOWEVER...
THE TIMING OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE SEVERE RISK IS
UNCERTAIN. ULTIMATELY...BY MID/LATE EVENING...A GREATER SEVERE RISK
COULD EVOLVE.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:40 pm to GEAUXmedic
I want real data damn it.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:42 pm to Duke
quote:
I want real data damn it.
The only "real" sounding I've seen today was from Monroe and Jackson.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:43 pm to dukke v
Found her last night looking for unrelated content on Google Images and she was there. Right-clicked and saved. 
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:47 pm to Duke
quote:
When do the soundings come rolling out?
00z soundings are coming up. One key to look for will be the low level jet setup. Activity is starting to increase across S. Louisiana but from radar returns these are just waa showers.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:48 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT WEAK WARM ADVECTION FARTHER EAST COULD ENCOURAGE
MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA/SOUTHERN
MS. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY MAY HAVE MORE OF A PROPENSITY TO BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR...AND ESPECIALLY BE SUPPORTED LATER THIS EVENING AS
EVEN RICHER MOISTURE SPREADS ONSHORE.
Lets hope that doesnt play out. Id prefer this speed up in that case.
quote:
THE TIMING OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE SEVERE RISK IS
UNCERTAIN. ULTIMATELY...BY MID/LATE EVENING...A GREATER SEVERE RISK
COULD EVOLVE.
Gotta love when the SPC isnt sure. Good reminder to all reading to be aware overnight and have a plan.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:48 pm to rds dc
quote:
One key to look for will be the low level jet setup.
Exactly what Im looking for.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:49 pm to Duke
I'd say the best way to prepare is to buy a weather radio. It's one of the best things you could buy. We try to give them away every now and then, but usually they're only $15-30 at walmart.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 6:02 pm to GEAUXmedic
Its just so damn warm and sticky in South LA... That means trouble when A storm can just pick it up.....
Posted on 11/29/16 at 6:04 pm to Duke
quote:
Exactly what Im looking for.
Flow around 850mb on the soundings. It might not be obvious but compare New Orleans to Jackson. It looks like there were no special releases today, so that will make it a bit more of a guessing game. But comparing 00z to HRRR and RAP soundings will give a feel for which is handling it better.
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