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re: The largest land invasion in military history commenced on this day 85 years ago...

Posted on 6/23/26 at 11:46 am to
Posted by Stinger_1066
On a golf course
Member since Jul 2021
3275 posts
Posted on 6/23/26 at 11:46 am to
quote:

German would have won WWII in Europe if
—if Hitler wasn’t Hitler


If Hitler wasn't Hitler, would there have even been a WWII?

Posted by KiwiHead
Auckland, NZ
Member since Jul 2014
38139 posts
Posted on 6/23/26 at 1:00 pm to
As a rule I hate discussing "what ifs" and alternative scenarios. But the timing of Barbarossa always fascinated me. It was incredibly mistimed. It only gives the Germans maybe 4 months of decent weather to go 800 miles to Moscow because by November you start getting some rough weather .

Germans don't get to rhe outskirts of Moscow until the first week of December. Why they don't launch the first week of April is one of history's big headscratchers .

As to Stalingrad. They needed Stalingrad if they were ever going to get their hands on the oil at Baku
.
Posted by Riseupfromtherubble
You'll Never Walk Alone
Member since Jun 2011
40197 posts
Posted on 6/23/26 at 1:17 pm to
quote:


If Hitler launches Barbarossa in early May, who knows how the war goes.


I think the alternative to retreat and eventual surrender was obliteration by atomic bomb and forced surrender.

Not every German soldier was a Nazi. Every Japanese soldier was a fanatic.

Essentially once we had that technology, there was no feasible outcome for eventual German victory in Europe. The allies proved in Dresden that there was not a moral line in the sand. I don't know that they would have bombed Berlin or Munich right away (much like we didn't bomb Tokyo) but once a city like Dortmund was reduced to ash, that would've been all she wrote
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71549 posts
Posted on 6/23/26 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

If you have one, what is your favorite podcast on that?



Not a podcast, but the YouTube channel Kings and Generals is currently doing a week-by-week chronology of the Eastern Front and are now in June 1942. You have to subscribe to the channel to watch all of the episodes but it's a very small fee (we're talking like $2.00 a month).

Linked below is Week #1 of Operation Barbarossa, but there are a number of prelude episodes the channel did prior to releasing this one:

Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71549 posts
Posted on 6/23/26 at 2:24 pm to
The timing of the invasion would not have mattered. The German strategy for Barbarossa relied on a quick victory with pincer movements that gobbled up the bulk of the Red Army. Taking Moscow would not have ended the business. Hitler was actually correct - you needed to destroy their armies in the field and not just take their cities.

By mid-July, Operation Barbarossa had met almost all of its initial objectives. The hope was that by that point the Red Army would have all but disintegrated. While the Soviets had suffered hundreds of thousands and perhaps even millions of casualties by that point, the Germans had already lost the war. The Red Army, though battered, was far from beaten and was growing stronger every day. While the gigantic pincer movements the Wehrmacht was performing looked overwhelming on paper, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers were escaping from the pockets that were being created by the German blitzkrieg and were living to fight another day.

Russian resistance in Ukraine was heavier than expected, forcing the Germans to divert panzer divisions from Army Group Center to Army Group South to assist in the capture of Kiev. The armies of Army Group Center could not hope to move on Moscow until Army Group South secured its right flank by capturing the capital of Ukraine.

The ironic thing is that General Friedrich Paulus, who would eventually surrender to the Russians in Stalingrad, war gamed this exact scenario before Operation Barbarossa even began. His analysis foresaw the ultimate defeat of Nazi Germany in the Soviet Union because it was all but impossible to achieve a quick and decisive victory over the Red Army due to the size of its army, its territory, and the impossible logistics involved in such a campaign.


Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
57015 posts
Posted on 6/23/26 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

German would have won WWII in Europe if they had:

1) demolished the troops at Dunkirk
2) continued bombing the RAF bases instead of switching to civilian targets (would likely not have even been necessary had they done #1 because Britain would almost certainly have sued for peace)
3) bypassed Stalingrad and beelined for the Caucasus oil fields and Moscow
4) not declared war on the USA

Germany lost WW2 when Japan bombed Pearl Harbor. Roosevelt would have found a way to enter the war on Germany - a false flag, a provocation, anything. He was not going to let a European hegemon be formed.

Your #1 is obviously an improvement for Germany. I don’t think #2 would have mattered. The Germans didn’t think it was working. Your #3 is true, but without conquering the major cities they would have played hell getting that oil out of the Caucasus. And I just don’t think #4 was avoidable.

Launching the invasion a few weeks earlier would have really improved their chances, too.
This post was edited on 6/23/26 at 3:27 pm
Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
55863 posts
Posted on 6/23/26 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

The timing of the invasion would not have mattered.


We talk about this particular "What If" very often here on TD. Why didn't Hitler launch Barbarossa five weeks more early? He would then have had time to crush Russia before Winter.

There are good reasons why Hitler could not launch the offensive much more early than 22 June 41. What are a couple of reasons?

1) Muddy Spring weather and ground conditions. On 22 June, the ground was dry, but, that was a recent development because it was muddy not long before that. Mech units depend on Speed. They can't go fast on muddy dirt roads. They burn a lot more fuel going slow on muddy roads. So, Hitler had to wait until the ground was dry - ALL of the ground, not just the ground in Army Group South.

2) The build-up of the entire force package was not totally completed even on 22 June 41. Even on 22 June, there were still some German combat units that did not have their full basic issue of equipment, ammo and such. In the weeks leading up to 22 June, this problem would have been consequential and diminished the combat readiness of the force.

The German Luftwaffe needed the extra time to build up. The Luftwaffe lost a lot in the Battle of Britain, and was actually WEAKER on 22 June 41 then it was a year earlier. Even though a year passed, the Luftwaffe was not able to totally re-build its strength.

So, there's really not a lot of weeks Hitler could have gained by launching early. Maybe one week? Two? Who knows, but, most probably not enough to make a big difference, given the spring mud.
Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
55863 posts
Posted on 6/23/26 at 6:58 pm to
And David Glantz says that, even if Hitler launched weeks earlier the massive Soviet Armies that were in Reserve and saved Moscow would have been there, even if the German approached Moscow some weeks more early.

" As for the effect of the delay on the outcome of Operation Barbarossa, I agree with David Glantz’s assessment that the weather was not the primary reason for Operation Barbarossa’s failure. Glantz writes:

Finally, the Stavka saved Moscow by raising and fielding 10 reserve armies that took part in the final defense of the city, the December 1941 counterstrokes, and the January 1942 counteroffensive. These armies would have gone into action regardless of when Hitler launched Operation Typhoon. While they effectively halted and drove back the German offensive short of Moscow as the operation actually developed, they would also have been available to do so had the Germans attacked Moscow a month earlier."
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