re: The CDC has quietly updated survival rates if infected with covid

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Do you know about and understand the all-cause death data? If you do, just how many of the excess deaths do you think can or will be attributed to something else?

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If you understood all cause death data you would know it’s never good to look at a brief snapshot. The story on all cause death data won’t be written for likely another year.

What would you say if over the next 6-12 months all cause deaths dipped below the average?

The biggest takeaway from this data is our politicians demographics are too old.

70+ counting the days anyway

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However, we should expect a spike at some point as more of the baby boomers reach their life expectancy - I wouldn’t expect it to be linear.

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We shouldn't expect a "spike", at least not as spiky as the birth rate during the boom. If a million people are born the same year, they will definitely not die the same year. The death distribution will be much smoother. But yes, the deaths should follow roughly the same curve as births on a [life expectancy] year lag.

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Lastly, the short-term excess mortality leaves out a pretty big piece of the story, which is that many of the people who did die of COVID were likely to die soon anyway. So if you look at excess mortality over a short term (say, April-August) it might look a lot worse than if you look at it over a longer term (say, April 2020-April 2021). I would argue that this is meaningful, because if (hypothetically) most of these deaths only shortened lives by <6 months, that’s a lot different than 6 years.

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Well, just FYI people who reach age 78 have a life expectancy of another 10 years. Now it could very well be that the majority of the deaths were knocking on the door anyway, but I've seen how it has affected people who are definitely NOT only months away from death, and it's been pretty rough. In the end, it will of course be impossible to know how many years might have been lost in each case, but as you are getting at we might be able to estimate the person-years lost over the coming years as we see how long death rates remain below expected after this is all over. If deaths are back on trend within a year, then yeah the majority were on their way out already. If it takes 4 or 5 years for deaths to get back up to the prior trend line, then we might have lost a lot of good years.

Anyway, this is a shitty line of thought, Mr. Devil's advocate.

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Anyhow, big picture I think the all-cause data makes it pretty clear that we have, in fact, seen a lot of COVID deaths. But I also think it’s possible that a chunk of those excess deaths can be explained by demographics. I don’t know whether that’s 10%, 20%, whatever. But it’s probably not zero.

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Yeah obviously not zero, especially given the death age distribution. Even so, I don't know what else some of these folks think the deaths should be attributed to.

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It's like what if 100 million people died one year? Of course deaths will dip below the prior average for many years simply because there are fewer people left alive to die.

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You are conveniently forgetting the age demographic that are dying from Covid 19. They have already had their kids and in most cases their kids have had kids. 100 million people dying under the age of 20 would be devastating bc those folks most likely had not had the chance to reproduce.

OT Karens aint gonna like this...


They fell for the conspiracy, and fell HARD. buncha kooks.

Very unimpressed with the CDC. Inconsistent and muddled messaging

Trump needed to get that house in order

Months from now, none of these Chinese Flu True Believers will admit they were ever pro-mask or shut down supporters. There are going to be a lot of embarrassed posters - and probably a lot of scrubbed post histories.

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Well it has to eventually (adjusted for population), because people can't die unless they were born first. It sounds really obvious and stupid to say that, but when people point out that deaths will likely dip below "expected" at some point in the near future they are kind of ignoring this plain fact.

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There are ways to analyze the data to account for that. It’s pretty simple actually. The fact remains that it is possible covid moves up deaths by 6-12 months by being a novel virus that a susceptible population, the elderly, had little immunity to and don’t have a yearly vaccine for.

Imagine if you will the flu never existed then all of a sudden came out of nowhere with its current level of lethality. Many more elderly would die the first time around simply because anyone could get it that first year. In subsequent years a lot less of the population would be vulnerable.