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re: T or F - In 10 days....Theyll be over 1000 deaths in Louisiana alone due to COVID-19

Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:20 pm to
Posted by Groundscrew85
Member since Oct 2018
685 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:20 pm to
[quote]Yes, the hospitals are crazy busy with scared people with a cough or SOB.

And crazy busy with people on ventilators
Posted by CoachChappy
Member since May 2013
34338 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:22 pm to
There are a lot of obese, diabetics, and people with cardiovascular disease here in La, so it’s possible
Posted by Rust Cohle
Baton rouge
Member since Mar 2014
2168 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:24 pm to
Best case scenario 2800 Louisiana's will die from covid next 12 months(200k nationally, .06%). 8400 will die of #1 killer heart disease. Many estimate it will kill more than any other cause, so more than 8400.
Posted by Hamma1122
Member since Sep 2016
22573 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:25 pm to
False
Posted by Jarlaxle
Calimport
Member since Dec 2010
2876 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:26 pm to
i will take those odds

Posted by Tortious
ATX
Member since Nov 2010
5771 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:26 pm to
False. Louisiana always under performs.
Posted by Groundscrew85
Member since Oct 2018
685 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:28 pm to
In ten days they will have about 500 deaths
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79881 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:30 pm to
By that graph we could have 100 more deaths or 3500 more deaths.

That's some exact science they are doing there.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79881 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:30 pm to
quote:

In ten days they will have about 500 deaths


I'm going to take the over, but not a ton over. 657.
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 2:31 pm
Posted by BoardReader
Arkansas
Member since Dec 2007
7415 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:32 pm to
You're dealing with 10 days to deal with about 770 deaths, give or take a bit.

Raw death rate should increase a fair amount day after day, on average. The question will be when intervention starts to make a dent, and if Louisiana hospitals can keep the death rates away from top end things.

Unless there's some sign of an interruption in infection growth, its a reasonably safe bet that LA should pass a thousand deaths no later than the end of the day on the 10th.

Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79881 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

Raw death rate should increase a fair amount day after day, on average. The question will be when intervention starts to make a dent, and if Louisiana hospitals can keep the death rates away from top end things.



We are doubling at more than 4 days right now and that number is getting larger.

Four days ago the doubling was under 3 days.
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 2:55 pm
Posted by Walt OReilly
Poplarville, MS
Member since Oct 2005
124694 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 2:55 pm to
Not a chance in hell
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 2:55 pm
Posted by holdemtigahs
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2018
97 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:01 pm to
False
Posted by sweetwaterbilly
Member since Mar 2017
19649 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:04 pm to
quote:

T or F Hairbrush masturbation is the hottest thing on pornhub right now. I say true.


They got any where they use the business end of the brush?

Asking for myself
Posted by Tigahs24Seven
Charlie Kirk's America
Member since Nov 2007
15188 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:04 pm to
I say false and go with the under....
Posted by RabidTiger
Member since Nov 2009
3127 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:05 pm to
True unfortunately. Most of the people who are dying now have been sick for weeks already.
Posted by Cracker
in a box
Member since Nov 2009
19320 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:09 pm to
True
Posted by TigerDeacon
West Monroe, LA
Member since Sep 2003
29900 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:09 pm to
True
This post was edited on 4/14/20 at 1:17 pm
Posted by BoardReader
Arkansas
Member since Dec 2007
7415 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

We are doubling at more than 4 days right now and that number is getting larger.

Four days ago the doubling was under 3 days.


This would make the dent that I was talking about-- if the lifespan from infection, to developing symptoms, to death were 4 days.

Unfortunately, its 20-22 days, depending on jurisdiction and case load, as has been seen around the world.

That means that any improvement in transmission rates today, won't be reflected for another 3 weeks.
Posted by Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
24690 posts
Posted on 4/1/20 at 3:21 pm to
Probably true
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