re: SW LA getting rocked by severe storms this morning.

Don’t wanna be that guy (who am I kidding yes I do) but ya boy was the first to point out in here the difference in last night and 2016 and why the flooding was different.

So obvious no one else said it then 20 people said it after that.

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Here’s some internet points for stating the obvious

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It didn't start getting discussed until people started worrying and comparing it to 2016. It needed to be addressed last night.

Lake Chuck is just a few miles from having another mess. Hopefully, all that shite stays offshore.

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The Boat

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You should check out the Chaser Chat podcast. I know I've mentioned it before, but any of the episodes with Jeff Frame are damn good and worth the time. The interview episodes are good, too, but the educational stuff is with Jeff.

Oooooooh, oriental massage

This has been my point forever. There is little to no recorded weather data for North America and South America prior to 1800. At best we have 200 years of data, with 150 or so at most being “reliable”. As a result , anytime you hear “1000 year event “ or “500 year event ”, it should be taken with a grain of salt. This includes temperatures. We really have no clue from a statistical standpoint what sort of weather events occurred prior to 1800, let alone their severity. Everything is extrapolated from 150 years worth of data. That’s like basing a QB or RB’s career average upon Week 1 performance data. It’s illogical and irresponsible to advise the public that anything is a 500/1000 year event. Better off comparing it to a known record : built to Katrina flood height;built to 1983 or 2016 flood height, etc.

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anytime you hear “1000 year event “ or “500 year event ”, it should be taken with a grain of salt

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That is demonstrably false. A google search of "500 year event" and clicking on literally the first link would have prevented you from saying something so silly.

Phrases like "1000 year event" or "500 year event" are meant so that idiots like yourself can understand the implications of statistics. And, undoubtedly, also to sell newspapers. "500 year event" simply means that is has a 0.2%, aka 1 in 500, chance of happening... Someone turned that phrase into calling it a "500 year event" but under no circumstance does that mean that it only happens once every 500 years.

It does NOT under any circumstances mean that it can only happen once every 500 years. That's just the way statistics works. The chances of winning the Megamillions jackpot are 1 in 302,575,350. Do you think that means the one person that won bought 302,575,349 losing tickets?

ETA:

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The 1-percent AEP flood has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given year; however, during the span of a 30-year mortgage, a home in the 1-percent AEP (100-year) floodplain has a 26-percent chance of being flooded at least once during those 30 years! The value of 26-percent is based on probability theory that accounts for each of the 30 years having a 1-percent chance of flooding.

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This is old news by now but the guage near Bluebonnet and Perkins (Perkins Rowe area) set an all-time record of 22.96 feet. This slightly exceeded the previous mark from (I believe) TS Allison in 2001 and was almost 3 feet higher than 2016 at that location.

Historic Crests
(1) 22.79 ft on 06/07/2001
(2) 20.58 ft on 05/12/2004
(3) 20.25 ft on 06/18/1997
(4) 20.16 ft on 12/30/2006
(5) 20.06 ft on 08/15/2016

Tomorrow through Thursday should be interesting in the Houston area. Here in Kingwood we had some street flooding yesterday but nothing major. They expect some local totals to be over 15 inches, with some bullseye spots over 20. Solid break from it today though.