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Started By
Message
re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley
Posted on 5/27/20 at 2:05 pm to lovethetigers7
Posted on 5/27/20 at 2:05 pm to lovethetigers7
quote:
WHERE THE FRICK IS RDS?
He only comes out for the actual threats.
0
Posted on 5/27/20 at 2:26 pm to paperwasp
quote:
Just playing the hypothetical game, what is it forecasting currently at that landfall, 973 mb or so?
2 maybe a weak 3 depending on certain factors
Posted on 5/27/20 at 2:34 pm to jaTigerfan
Posted on 5/27/20 at 2:44 pm to paperwasp
That doesn't really match that own model's ensemble members, though.
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 5/27/20 at 2:49 pm to TDsngumbo
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/31/20 at 4:34 pm
Posted on 5/27/20 at 3:38 pm to DVinBR
When is the last time a particular model nailed a tropical cyclone’ position and intensity in 168 hours ?
Here, you are talking 384 hours. I don’t recall any model being that accurate that far out in time.
Here, you are talking 384 hours. I don’t recall any model being that accurate that far out in time.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 3:51 pm to Klingler7
quote:
I don’t recall any model being that accurate that far out in time
Yeah, it's definitely not accurate at this point. Just interesting to watch it resolve over time.
quote:
NEVER give a 384 forecast like that much weight. However, there have been signals that *something* may develop anywhere from the E. Pacific to near the Yucatan by mid/late next week.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 3:54 pm to Klingler7
quote:
When is the last time a particular model nailed a tropical cyclone’ position and intensity in 168 hours ?
Here, you are talking 384 hours. I don’t recall any model being that accurate that far out in time.
I haven't seen anyone here say that they're taking this seriously at this point. If we get to 3-4 days out and it's still showing this then yes, it would be time to prepare but right now it's simply just something to watch in the models. Personally, I always like to see how drastic the inaccuracies are between the time something shows up in models and, if it develops, where it goes in the end. It's usually very inaccurate this far out.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 4:03 pm to TDsngumbo
Cat 3 hitting NOLA head on
Posted on 5/27/20 at 4:15 pm to TDsngumbo
Exactly, plus if RDS starts a thread on it or comes in this one, i'll pay more attention.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 4:16 pm to TDsngumbo
The GFS has bounced this thing all over the GOM. I've been monitoring this for the last 4 days. All we really know is that a tropical low has a chance to emerge over GOM 9-14 days from now. We will know a lot more about it a week from now.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 4:27 pm to Chieeefs
This will be 1 million pages in 14 days if models keep showing. New Orleans landfall
Posted on 5/27/20 at 4:31 pm to TDsngumbo
Lol so it hits Tampa and then makes a hard turn for Nola
GFS is trash, I'm embarrassed that this is the best model America can put out
Just this past Sunday it had that low stalling all week in Texas and 60+% chance of rain everyday for all of LA
Well guess what, that didn't happen and that was only 3-5 days out
GFS is trash, I'm embarrassed that this is the best model America can put out
Just this past Sunday it had that low stalling all week in Texas and 60+% chance of rain everyday for all of LA
Well guess what, that didn't happen and that was only 3-5 days out
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 5/27/20 at 5:01 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
haven't seen anyone here say that they're taking this seriously at this point. If we get to 3-4 days out and it's still showing this then yes, it would be time to prepare but right now it's simply just something to watch in the models.
If it is still relevant 3-4 days out Then the current wild-cast would have to be accurate, which it most likely isn’t... so your statement is loaded with contradiction.
Which is why everyone is discounting this whole thing.
There is a better chance that each of the posters on this thread yawn at the same time than for these models to be right this far out
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 5:21 pm
Posted on 5/27/20 at 5:17 pm to SlidellCajun
I really don’t get why people shite on these threads. We all know it’s bullshite at this point but some people like discussing topics like weather.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 5:22 pm to TDsngumbo
Do the models improve over time? Like is there AI involved in crunching numbers? Seems like every year the models should get a tiny bit more accurate 10 days out.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 6:27 pm to yatesdog38
quote:
Do the models improve over time? Like is there AI involved in crunching numbers? Seems like every year the models should get a tiny bit more accurate 10 days out.
Generally, they do but they are still wildly inaccurate this far out. We're still probably 500 years away from weather models being accurate two weeks out
Posted on 5/27/20 at 6:33 pm to DVinBR
quote:
2+ weeks out this is a 99% chance of being a nothingburger
A few years ago, maybe 2018, there was one of these forecasts about 2 weeks out like this and it indeed did form as somewhat predicted. Wasn't real bad, maybe a TS only, but I recall being surprised that they actually got it right.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 6:40 pm to East Coast Band
I remember one (don't recall the name) a couple years ago that pretty much did what they said it would do a week or so in advance. It went into the Mississippi/Alabama border if I recall correctly. That was very rare.
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 6:41 pm
Posted on 5/27/20 at 6:57 pm to Byrdybyrd05
Should I cancel my NOLA weekend???
Oh...wait...
Oh...wait...
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