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re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley

Posted on 6/5/20 at 6:43 am to
Posted by Moe Betta
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2019
381 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 6:43 am to
If the offshore platforms/rigs start evacuations that's when I'll start getting concerned. From all available current information it appears that this will be a rainmaker and minimal TS- my concern is loss of power from down tree limbs and flooding from the heavy rain - stay safe everyone
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50796 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 6:45 am to
quote:

From all available current information it appears that this will be a rainmaker and minimal TS

So what do you consider a string tropical storm? Because this has 65-70mph at landfall written all over it.
Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 6:52 am to
Got a game plan for the birds nesting under my carport. Going to put some saw horses on each side of the bike and then run some 1x4 boards across to lock the bike in place. Wire ties after that. That should do the trick. Will try to get some pictures of the birds today.

Oh, storm track has it right over me. Carport is open on the east and west sides.
This post was edited on 6/5/20 at 6:55 am
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131597 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 6:59 am to
quote:

Because this has 65-70mph at landfall written all over it.


Bet the highest recorded wind gust from this thing in US wont be more than 50
Posted by tigersbh
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
13155 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:00 am to
quote:

I’m vacationing in Donaldsonville


Please tell me you’re a troll!!
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18051 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:04 am to
quote:

Euro caving to the GFS


Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50796 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:25 am to
quote:

Bet the highest recorded wind gust from this thing in US wont be more than 50

If models are correct, I’d bet you’re wrong. If you take a look at the models (the reliable ones) and turn on their wind parameters, you’d be surprised. I bet somewhere around NOLA reports a top gust of close to 70mph from this and the BR area has a couple gusts around 50mph. I hate to put a whole lot of stock in the model wind parameters since inland wind is always hard to predict but they 100% nailed the Olga winds last fall when the NHC refused to even post a tropical storm watch. Everyone was caught off guard on the north shore and NOLA areas by 60mph winds and that was exactly what the models predicted. It was mind boggling why the NHC refused to post tropical storm watches or even a high wind warning.

If models are correct, this will be a little similar to Barry in the southern half of the BR area and southward. Barry wasn’t bad at all but it did result in a lot of people losing power for a couple days.
This post was edited on 6/5/20 at 7:45 am
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177370 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:32 am to
quote:

It was mind boggling why the NHC refused to post tropical storm watches or even a high wind warning.

That’s because Olga wasn’t a tropical system when it made landfall.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177370 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:38 am to


Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50796 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:39 am to
It was still in a warm sector and wasn’t yet in the cold sector I believe. I’d be willing to bet that it’s going to be studied one day and they will upgrade it from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm. It was just out ahead of the front that was coming through. At a minimum, they dropped the ball on warning the public.
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18624 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:43 am to
Any chance it will track east of BR?
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177370 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:45 am to
quote:

At a minimum, they dropped the ball on warning the public.


The Boat, AMS didn’t drop the ball.

LINK

LINK
This post was edited on 6/5/20 at 7:47 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50796 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:47 am to
Absolutely there’s a chance. Until it’s back over water they are only guessing since interaction with land and the gyre it’s caught up in is causing an erratic movement. My guess would be that once it’s back over water we will see one final big shift in model output and it’ll stick to that for the most part through landfall.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50796 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:48 am to


Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131597 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:51 am to
Damn, its gonna pass right over the camel
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50796 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:55 am to
The 6z EURO shows 3-7 inches of rain across the BR area with a bullseye of 7” ominously close to the Amite & Comite River basins. That constant southerly flow will back the rivers up a little bit with all that rain falling onto those areas. I’d imagine we will see some moderate river flooding out of this if that happens.
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
46861 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:55 am to
We have been unusually hot in central Florida. I am guessing that it has been hot due west of us as well. That means warmer water temps, and late strengthening.

Has anybody discussed the water temps yet?
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50796 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:56 am to
Yes and although they’re warmer than normal for this time of year, they’re not that warm yet. If the gulf was August/September warm, we’d be having a much different conversation in this thread.
Posted by paperwasp
2x HRV 2025 Poster of the Year
Member since Sep 2014
30007 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:57 am to
Sneaking into the HRRR

Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 6/5/20 at 7:57 am to
Has the run on milk sandwiches begun yet?
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