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re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:11 pm to
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14278 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:11 pm to
That run is similar in location and strength to Andrew when it hit St. Mary Parish except this windfield looks larger.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177271 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:11 pm to
quote:

Seems awfully similar to the Gustav track this run.






Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:12 pm to
quote:

Landfall 7PM CDT Sunday - Damn


So TS winds start 10 am Sunday. Evacs begin 8am Friday, contraflow begins 4am Saturday.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50686 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:15 pm to
quote:

Seems awfully similar to the Gustav track this run.


Very similar but stronger and a tad closer to Baton Rouge.
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1941 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:21 pm to


Baton Rouge would be wrecked
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
49830 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:29 pm to
Well if you have to guess, I would say Bay St Louisiana or Lake Charles. That seems to be the damn pattern lately.

We should know Saturday, so there goes the weekend. (Lol)

Prayers for whoever this hits in advance, this is going to be a big kick in the nuts for some people
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
49830 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:31 pm to
Last I checked models seen to be clustering around 3/4 for intensity, landfall Monday probably about New Orleans to 100 miles either side but shifting East. Is that still the story ?
This post was edited on 8/25/21 at 11:39 pm
Posted by danilo
Member since Nov 2008
25683 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:31 pm to
Chris Franklin from WWL ain’t scared

Chris Franklin WWL-TV
·
1h
#99 There has been a rather dramatic shift east in the models tonight toward #LA after more of a #TX focus this afternoon. Does it concern me? Not really as there is no center for the models to forecast. More dramatic shifts are likely before a storm finally forms.
This post was edited on 8/25/21 at 11:32 pm
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:35 pm to
quote:

Chris Franklin from WWL ain’t scared


Have you seen his commercials? He’s a fricking joke. There’s a reason nobody watches WWL anymore. They got rid of everyone worth a shite.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50686 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:36 pm to
I completely understand his mindset there but it’s getting increasingly hard to ignore these model runs.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177271 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:41 pm to
quote:

Chris Franklin WWL-TV
·
1h
#99 There has been a rather dramatic shift east in the models tonight toward #LA after more of a #TX focus this afternoon. Does it concern me? Not really as there is no center for the models to forecast. More dramatic shifts are likely before a storm finally forms.

The whole meteorologist "I'm gonna act like this is a nothingburger until it's right on top of me" thing a lot of them do is so gay. They're so pissed everyone on the internet can look at models these days unlike how only they could back in the day. They lost all of their power.

Acting like a storm 4 days out isn't concerning any.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:43 pm to
quote:

They're so pissed everyone on the internet can look at models these days unlike how only they could back in the day. They lost all of their power.


The phd’s are the worst at this….
This post was edited on 8/25/21 at 11:44 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:44 pm to
You'd think after Zeta waxed him last year he'd be a little more serious with this.
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
84300 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:50 pm to
quote:

Chris Franklin WWL-TV
·
1h
#99 There has been a rather dramatic shift east in the models tonight toward #LA after more of a #TX focus this afternoon. Does it concern me? Not really as there is no center for the models to forecast. More dramatic shifts are likely before a storm finally forms.


That's like saying, "I know it's going to be a major hurricane that likely whacks some part of the state and SELA could be wrecked beyond repair if it comes here but I'm good."

Posted by Scoper
i love hugh freeze
Member since Mar 2021
3356 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:51 pm to
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11006 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:52 pm to
Hey guys, why are multiple models showing ANOTHER storm in the gulf less than 7 days after this one?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:53 pm to
quote:

Hey guys, why are multiple models showing ANOTHER storm in the gulf less than 7 days after this one?


Peak season be like that but I aint much worried about the next storm just yet.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147075 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:53 pm to
quote:

Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
Models continue to wobble around, which is typical for a system that is undeveloped, and 5 or so days from landfall. I am saying “landfall” now, because I have enough model agreement to tell me that this should become a tropical storm or hurricane. I’m at the stage where I’d be quite surprised if it didn’t. So now we shift into, where will this go, and how strong will it get mode.
Both are tough questions when we are 5+ days from landfall, but I’m leaning toward this becoming a hurricane, and a strong hurricane is most certainly on the table. No guarantees, but that’s the consensus of models, combined with all the conditions this storm will encounter. Low shear, lots of moisture and instability, and bath water in the Gulf of Mexico.
The track guidance tried to narrow up a bit, but afternoon models were a little odd. They still showed potential significant impacts for our area, but shifted east a bit. The overnight runs will show if this was a blip, or a trend. For now, it looks like the most likely landfall is Corpus Christi TX to New Orleans, which puts us squarely in the zone of concern. I can’t put out potential scenarios and impacts until at least Saturday, but the message remains the same. You need to be ready for the potential of a landfalling hurricane sometime late Monday into Tuesday. This is not a definite, but confidence in some sort of local impact is increasing. I started to buy a little of the heavy stuff today. I grabbed a bag of rice and a case of water. Nothing crazy, since I’ll use it anyway, but fill the prescriptions, check the generator, and figure out your plan if this looks like a real threat in a couple days. I will update things in the morning.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50686 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:55 pm to
Duke, are you still in Colorado?
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
84300 posts
Posted on 8/25/21 at 11:56 pm to
quote:

Brett Adair
@AlaStormTracker
Looking at things tonight...concern continues to grow for me regarding the weekend system. Shear will relax, but a TUTT will act as steering. Environmental conditions will become more favorable for #99L...and then it will hit the fuel - I haven’t seen this in a minute





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