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Message
re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:32 pm to East Coast Band
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:32 pm to East Coast Band
FLBoo, is your tv and phone now getting blown up with alerts too?
3
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:32 pm to slackster
quote:
Why is a model like the HRRR wrong the moment it initializes?
2z HRRR initialized at 975mb. The storm hasn't been that high in days.
I don't know a whole lot about the HRRR but it could be as simple as that is just what shows up on the graphics on that site. Kind of like how different sites will show different pressures for the same time for the GFS. The raw data coming from NCEP is the same but it comes down to how the site coding displays the data.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:33 pm to Tiger in NY
Mine is.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:34 pm to Duke
quote:
It is a useful technique but not nearly as accurate as flying a plane into it and measuring it. It does suggest it's getting stronger. Just wanted to clarify that's not a measured value. Too many people reading here. That's all.
No worries
On another note the outflow of this thing is really going.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:34 pm to rds dc
quote:
I don't know a whole lot about the HRRR but it could be as simple as that is just what shows up on the graphics on that site. Kind of like how different sites will show different pressures for the same time for the GFS. The raw data coming from NCEP is the same but it comes down to how the site coding displays the data.
Gotcha. And just like that, the 6 hr window of the 0z GFS has 996 mb.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:35 pm to slackster
quote:
Yeah, but that is much better than a storm coming due west into Jacksonville.
If it is just inland a tiny bit though, it puts Jax in the NE quadrant though, no?
Bad either way because we will see both sides of the eye
Any other time anyone can think of that ~10million people were concurrently under a hurricane warning? That's nuts.
This post was edited on 10/5/16 at 10:38 pm
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:37 pm to rds dc
That model is already outdated if, as shown a few posts above, this thing is hitting at 140 mph. That model is suggesting only 115 mph.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:38 pm to slackster
quote:
Gotcha. And just like that, the 6 hr window of the 0z GFS has 996 mb
00z hi-res GFS shows 973mb at 06z, recon shows 959mb at 03z and it should continue to drop based on sat. So the GFS is going to bust pretty hard on the weak side tonight in the short term.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:40 pm to NYNolaguy1
It looks like the eye wall has completely wrapped around the southside.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:40 pm to HubbaBubba
To clarify that 140mph is an estimate based on satellite, not recon data as noted above. I will edit to avoid future confusion.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:40 pm to quail man
Amazing me every time
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:42 pm to Tiger in NY
quote:
If it is just inland a tiny bit though, it puts Jax in the NE quadrant though, no?
Bad either way because we will see both sides of the eye
Let's say it comes right up (down) the river in this case. The storm is moving NW. The strongest quadrant is the northeast quadrant, but in the case of Jacksonville the direction of the storm is working against the flow of the river.
Let's say the river flowed from NW to SE and emptied into the Atlantic in Jacksonville. If the storm was moving NW into Jacksonville, that would be a worst case scenario because all of the built up water would freely flow into the river.
The surge is impacted by the quadrant and the direction of the storm. In general, the more perpendicular the landfall, the worse the surge will be. With the current track, the storm will be pushing water NW and, if it stays offshore, the winds along the coast will be E and then NE winds, essentially working against the surge.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:43 pm to NYNolaguy1
Yeah, outflow has been improving north all night.
Recon has a closed eye. With the increasing symmetry in convection, the ramp up in strength begins now.
Recon has a closed eye. With the increasing symmetry in convection, the ramp up in strength begins now.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:44 pm to rds dc
quote:
00z hi-res GFS shows 973mb at 06z,
How do you get this? Tropical tidbits? I can find it there once the "Hurricane" models are available for the GFS run, but nothing is showing there right now.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:44 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
To clarify that 140mph is an estimate based on satellite, not recon data as noted above. I will edit to avoid future confusion.
Yea, Dvorak is taking off this evening
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:45 pm to slackster
quote:
Let's say the river flowed from NW to SE and emptied into the Atlantic in Jacksonville. If the storm was moving NW into Jacksonville, that would be a worst case scenario because all of the built up water would freely flow into the river.
I see what you're saying. The approach will be pushing water up and out as it should be. Makes sense.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:45 pm to slackster
quote:
How do you get this? Tropical tidbits? I can find it there once the "Hurricane" models are available for the GFS run, but nothing is showing there right now.
TT, surface pressure plots
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:45 pm to slackster
You have to think of it in terms of static head. If the storm surge at the mouth is 20 ft, everything upriver will backfill until it can overcome that head pressure. It's a fluid static dam.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:50 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
You have to think of it in terms of static head. If the storm surge at the mouth is 20 ft, everything upriver will backfill until it can overcome that head pressure. It's a fluid static dam.
Yeah that is true but you then have a southwest wind that pushes water out as the storm passes through. I was just trying to give him an idea of how little room for error there may be but that a storm that stays out to water is obviously better.
Posted on 10/5/16 at 10:50 pm to rds dc
quote:
TT, surface pressure plots
Explain it to me like I'm 5. I click on Forecast Models, Global, GFS, then...?
This post was edited on 10/5/16 at 10:51 pm
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