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Message
re: Spawn/Remnants of Julia - 93L NHC 60%
Posted on 10/2/22 at 10:21 pm to LSUFanHouston
Posted on 10/2/22 at 10:21 pm to LSUFanHouston
Back off bitch.
1
Posted on 10/2/22 at 10:35 pm to dukke v
If Peej is saying the Gulf is closed to hurricanes, I’m packing up the wife and kids and I’m leaving for Utah tomorrow.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 10:46 pm to rds dc
Wtf? A couple hours ago it was only a 10% chance over the next several days.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 10:52 pm to Jake88
The chances for development ramp up fast.
Right now, everything points to a Central American hit but given its October we have to watch for something coming from the N and opening a door in the ridge allowing the system North too.
Right now, everything points to a Central American hit but given its October we have to watch for something coming from the N and opening a door in the ridge allowing the system North too.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 7:39 am to Duke
quote:
A tropical depression may develop early this week but environmental conditions will become less favorable for development later this week.
quote:
There are no indications for a threat to the Gulf or Florida.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 7:48 am to Oates Mustache
Where is the OP getting that image? When I go to the NHC, it tells me that disturbance has a less than 30% chance of developing into a depression.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 7:51 am to HubbaBubba
His graphic is right. This is from this morning, 40% is orange.
quote:
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Posted on 10/3/22 at 7:58 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
40% is orange.
How long until some colorblind lawyer sues? I will downvote myself now.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 8:06 am to Oates Mustache
It depends what you look for. This is ALSO from this morning on the front page at nhc.noaa.gov/:
In order to get OP's graphic, you have to look for a five day tropical forecast. Even then, the bulletin still says it only has a 40% chance. The graphic from the OP makes that appear much higher. There's a big difference between a 5-day 40% outlook and a graphic showing up to 60% when that's not what the official forecast states. Not OP's fault, as NOAA creates the graphic. But either the graphic is misleading and the bulletin is hedging, or vice-versa.
In order to get OP's graphic, you have to look for a five day tropical forecast. Even then, the bulletin still says it only has a 40% chance. The graphic from the OP makes that appear much higher. There's a big difference between a 5-day 40% outlook and a graphic showing up to 60% when that's not what the official forecast states. Not OP's fault, as NOAA creates the graphic. But either the graphic is misleading and the bulletin is hedging, or vice-versa.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 8:16 am to HubbaBubba
Huh?
The orange represents a 40-60% chance of developing within 5 days, hence the 5 day outlook, but only a 30% chance within 2 days, hence the yellow, 2 day outlook. The discussion says 40% which again is in the range of orange.
I'm not sure what your issue is with it.
The orange represents a 40-60% chance of developing within 5 days, hence the 5 day outlook, but only a 30% chance within 2 days, hence the yellow, 2 day outlook. The discussion says 40% which again is in the range of orange.
I'm not sure what your issue is with it.
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 8:19 am
Posted on 10/3/22 at 8:46 am to rds dc
Posted on 10/3/22 at 8:46 am to NorthEndZone
all i know is pinky didn't know shite for Ian.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 8:51 am to NorthEndZone
HWFI can frick right off.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:05 am to Oates Mustache
If the official forecast is 40% over five days, why make a graphic that makes it appear greater than that, that's all. Not a knock on OP. It is NHC that is posting a graphic that is showing higher than the official forecast. If the chances are as stated in the latest bulletin, 40%, why make that orange instead of keeping it at yellow? That's all. If they expect the odds are greater than 40%, they should state that in the official forecast.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:09 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
If the official forecast is 40% over five days, why make a graphic that makes it appear greater than that, that's all. Not a knock on OP. It is NHC that is posting a graphic that is showing higher than the official forecast. If the chances are as stated in the latest bulletin, 40%, why make that orange instead of keeping it at yellow? That's all. If they expect the odds are greater than 40%, they should state that in the official forecast.
Man, please get a second cup of coffee or something.
It's a range.
0-39% = Yellow/Low
40-59% = Orange/Medium
60-99% = Red/High
You have to read the discussion in order to see what percentage they are forecasting.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:09 am to HubbaBubba
40% chance of development has always been orange.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:50 am to jaTigerfan
quote:
40% chance of development has always been orange
For some reason this discussion reminds me of the Airplane! White Zone/Red Zone bit. (Sorry, can't link Youtube on a work computer):
quote:
Male PA Announcer: The white zone is for immediate loading and unloading of passengers only. There is no stopping in a red zone.
Female PA Announcer: The white zone is for immediate loading and unloading of passengers only. There is no stopping in a red zone.
Male PA Announcer: The red zone is for immediate loading and unloading of passengers only. There is no stopping in a white zone.
Female PA Announcer: No, the white zone is for loading. Now, there is no stopping in a RED zone.
Male PA Announcer: The red zone has always been for loading.
Female PA Announcer: Don't you tell me which zone is for loading, and which zone is for unloading.
Male PA Announcer: Look Betty, don't start up with your white zone shiite again. There's just no stopping in a white zone.
Female PA Announcer: Oh really, Vernon? Why pretend, we both know perfectly well what this is about. You want me to have an abortion.
Male PA Announcer: It's really the only sensible thing to do. If its done safely, therapeutically, there's no danger involved.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:01 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
If the official forecast is 40% over five days, why make a graphic that makes it appear greater than that, that's all. Not a knock on OP. It is NHC that is posting a graphic that is showing higher than the official forecast. If the chances are as stated in the latest bulletin, 40%, why make that orange instead of keeping it at yellow? That's all. If they expect the odds are greater than 40%, they should state that in the official forecast.
This right here is certainly a take.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:03 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
If the official forecast is 40% over five days, why make a graphic that makes it appear greater than that, that's all.
The colors on the graphic represent 40% over 5 days. Seems accurate to me.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:08 am to Duke
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