Spain’s number’scontinue to fall - 809 deaths on Saturday

What's this mean for me

809 deaths in a single day is still some scary shite

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Despite what any models are saying, looking around the world for what is actually happening gives a better idea of what we are up against.

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brings truth to the statement that all models are wrong. Some are useful.

Percentages is a weird way to look at these stats. Especially without context.

If last week they had 5,000(?) total deaths, a 20% increase is 1,000 deaths.

So on Friday, if they had 10,000 total deaths, a 9% increase is 900 deaths.

Saturday, 7% increase was 779.

I am guessing on last week's numbers, and according to those guessed numbers the new deaths are decreasing for the dates they are speaking about. But I'm not sure what that means.

Just a weird way of looking at it. Maybe I'm wrong though. I guess that does mean the curve is flattening.

No it fricking isnt.

Its 800 people in the whole country, many of whom would likely have not lived till 2021 regardless of coronavirus.

Lay the total number of people who died on this day in 2019 and I bet the delta is barely noticable if at all.

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Percentages is a weird way to look at these stats. Especially without context.

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It’s really the best way. The exponential nature of disease spread is what is worrisome. The percentage increase dropping means the the exponential increase is fading.

It quite literally means the curve is flatting (or we are approaching the apex or perhaps on the downslope).

Spain reported over 470,000 deaths in 2018 and 2019. 1300 a day average. So more context would be helpful. How many total deaths in Spain including rona? Is it 2100 now involving and increase or is it still in line with average? We don't know.

I'm sure there is a slight uptick that on a graph with some skewed scaling looks really bad, but I bet as a percentage is certainly not worth derailing the world economy over.

I'm not sure why we dont see that data being broadcasted. The normal guy has never put any thought into how many people die in a "normal" day (let's say April 3 2019). We should be comparing those, not blasting that literally thousands of people are dying every day from coronas!!!!

If there is a significant delta there, than we know we've got a really fricking serious problem. I just still dont see it

It's basically saying that last week and this week we are having a similar number of deaths per day, though it is decreasing. The use of percentages of total deaths kinda paints a different picture.

The good news is that surely the number of infected has risen, so the number of daily deaths staying flat is a good thing.

In any case, it's not enough information to really draw a conclusion.

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Its 800 people in the whole country, many of whom would likely have not lived till 2021 regardless of coronavirus.

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This right here is what nobody seems to want to talk about.

Like I said before, let’s look at what is actually happening. By and large, the vast majority of people that get it won’t even know, and the vast majority of people that die will be old and unhealthy. These deaths will cannibalize more typical ways people with this combo of risk factors die (since as the flu).

When all of this is said and done, the talking point will be “it would have been much worse if we hadn’t done anything”