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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:31 pm to PearlJam
quote:
Now, when I pick my second ball, there are only 2 (color) outcomes. It will either be gold (75% of the time) or silver (25% of the time).
FIFY.
You're oversimplifying it again.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:31 pm to PearlJam
quote:
Right. Which is why there are only 2 possibilities with the second move. Those possibilities have different probabilities.
This is an oversimplification which leaves out the reason for the correct answer. As slackster pointed out, using this logic there is only 1 possibility for the second pull, which will be 100% defined by which box you pulled out of.
This is accurate, but it doesn't tell the whole story.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:32 pm to slackster
FWIW,
Now matter how many balls you add, as long as the two options are distributed evenly (ei GGGG, GGGS, GGSS, GSSS, SSSS), then the outcome of the second ball being the same as the first is 67%.
Now matter how many balls you add, as long as the two options are distributed evenly (ei GGGG, GGGS, GGSS, GSSS, SSSS), then the outcome of the second ball being the same as the first is 67%.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:33 pm to slackster
quote:Nope. That is the problem. You have chosen your box. All balls aren't still in play. The problem is determining the probability of which box you choose with your first pick.
FIFY.
You're oversimplifying it again.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:34 pm to CptRusty
quote:Exactly. And that is determined by the probability of which box you first selected and not by which balls remain in play.
As slackster pointed out, using this logic there is only 1 possibility for the second pull, which will be 100% defined by which box you pulled out of.
ETA: your solution changes the problem to come up with the right answer
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:36 pm to PearlJam
quote:
And that is determined by the probability of which box you first selected and not by which balls remain in play.
Do you agree that each unique opening move resulting in a gold ball, has a unique corresponding outcome?
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:37 pm to PearlJam
>Checks in 13 pages later<
Yep, stupid motherfrickers are still in here arguing why their demonstrably wrong answer is not wrong.
Yep, stupid motherfrickers are still in here arguing why their demonstrably wrong answer is not wrong.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:37 pm to PearlJam
quote:
Right. Which is why there are only 2 possibilities with the second move. Those possibilities have different probabilities.
There are 7 colors of the rainbow. Red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo, and violet. Pick a color. How many outcomes are there?
PearlJam says there are only 2 outcomes - red and not red. That's correct, but oversimplified.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:37 pm to CptRusty
quote:not exactly
Do you agree that each possible opening move resulting in a gold ball, has a unique corresponding outcome?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:38 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:That's actually not true. Now people are arguing over why 67% is correct.
Yep, stupid motherfrickers are still in here arguing why their demonstrably wrong answer is not wrong.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:38 pm to ell_13
quote:
That's actually not true. Now people are arguing over why 67% is correct.
Oh, well that's an unexpected wrinkle in an "OT is horrible at math" thread. My kneejerk post doesn't fit!
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:39 pm to slackster
quote:That's not a good analogy.
There are 7 colors of the rainbow. Red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo, and violet. Pick a color. How many outcomes are there?
PearlJam says there are only 2 outcomes - red and not red. That's correct, but oversimplified.
There is only one ball left in the box to select. It can only be the silver ball or the other gold ball. There isn't a third option.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:40 pm to PearlJam
quote:
It can only be the silver ball or the other gold bal
G1B1
G2B1
Which is "the other" gold ball?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:41 pm to PearlJam
quote:
Exactly. And that is determined by the probability of which box you first selected and not by which balls remain in play.
Again, semantics. The reason the math checks out is because of the remaining possibilities/outcomes.
There are 6 possible combinations given the setup of the boxes.
G1,G2
G2,G1
G3,S1
S1,G3
S2,S3
S3,S2
Once we know that we're picking a gold ball first, there are 3 possible outcomes remaining.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:41 pm to CptRusty
quote:The one that isn't already selected. They aren't both in the box. If they are, then it isn't the box from which you are selecting.
Which is "the other" gold ball?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:42 pm to PearlJam
quote:
It can only be the silver ball or the other gold ball
True or false - there are two possible gold balls it could be?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:42 pm to slackster
quote:false
True or false - there are two possible gold balls it could be?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:43 pm to PearlJam
quote:
false
Wrong.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:43 pm to slackster
How could there be 2 possible gold balls in a box with 1 ball?
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