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re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:29 pm to Scooba
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:29 pm to Scooba
quote:The brain wants to forget that from the get go, there was a larger chance of choosing the box with two golds.
The brain wants to think that you either pulled G1 from B1 or G1 from B2 leaving only two second pull options, G2 from B1 or S1 from B2; 50/50.
2
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:30 pm to doubleb
quote:
You are overthinking this thing.
You're underthinking it.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:30 pm to SlowFlowPro
I thought 50/50 initially as well and I don't have a headache. 
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:31 pm to LSUBoo
why do almost all of these comes from the biggest meathead forum on the interwebs?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:33 pm to LSUBoo
i went back and forth on that
outside of very limited areas, probability is not a strong suit. back when i was really grinding poker i was going to put in work there
outside of very limited areas, probability is not a strong suit. back when i was really grinding poker i was going to put in work there
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:33 pm to 50_Tiger
Once you pull out a gold ball, that eliminates the box with two gray balls. So that means, you have either pulled from the box with two gold balls or the box with one gold ball and one gray ball. At that point it is a 50/50 shot. Before someone pulls out a ball, the chance of pulling a gold ball is 1/3.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:34 pm to OweO
quote:0 for 2
At that point it is a 50/50 shot. Before someone pulls out a ball, the chance of pulling a gold ball is 1/3.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:35 pm to OweO
quote:
At that point it is a 50/50 shot. Before someone pulls out a ball, the chance of pulling a gold ball is 1/3.
Everything about this is wrong.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:35 pm to ell_13
I really want to hear these 50/50 people argue the Monty Hall problem.
So let's say Chicken offered you $1000 from the beginning if you picked the box with two gold balls.
You pick your box randomly of the 3 available.
Then chicken opens one of the un picked boxes to show that it had 2 silver balls, leaving the winning box either on the stage, or in your lap.
Chicken gives you the chance to switch your box with the remaining box on the stage... do you switch?
Yes, because there is now a 67% chance the box on the stage has two gold balls and you have a 33% chance the box in your lap has 1 Gold 1 Silver.
So let's say Chicken offered you $1000 from the beginning if you picked the box with two gold balls.
You pick your box randomly of the 3 available.
Then chicken opens one of the un picked boxes to show that it had 2 silver balls, leaving the winning box either on the stage, or in your lap.
Chicken gives you the chance to switch your box with the remaining box on the stage... do you switch?
Yes, because there is now a 67% chance the box on the stage has two gold balls and you have a 33% chance the box in your lap has 1 Gold 1 Silver.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:35 pm to monkeybutt
I see two boxes left. You eliminated one, it's no longer in the "contest".
One of those two boxes remaining has a silver ball in it. Is it the box with one ball or is it the box with two balls?
50/50
One of those two boxes remaining has a silver ball in it. Is it the box with one ball or is it the box with two balls?
50/50
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:37 pm to doubleb
quote:Except you were 16.7% more likely to chose the box with the two golds in it. That is still factored in and where the 66.7% comes from.
One of those two boxes remaining has a silver ball in it. Is it the box with one ball or is it the box with two balls?
50/50
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:38 pm to doubleb
quote:
Slo goes next, and now what are the odds he picks box 1?
50/50
This is true.
However, he has to pick two balls for the scenario to apply. In order to pick two balls, he has to draw a gold ball on his first pick. Which means that every time he selects box 1 (with 2 golds) he gets a second pick and the second pick will be gold. However, he will only get a second ball half the times he picks box 2 with 1 gold and 1 silver. So he theoretically picks a box 100 times and 50 times it's box 1 and 50 times it's box 2. All 50 times it's box 1, he gets two golds for 50 gold balls on the second ball draw. For the 50 times he picks box 2, he'll only see gold 25 times on ball one, which means ball 2 is silver only 25 times of the 100 draws. So in 100 picks, the second ball being gold is the result twice as often. Which means 66.6 (repeating, of course)% chance of the second ball being gold on any given drawing between the two boxes in which the first ball is also gold.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:39 pm to doubleb
quote:
I see two boxes left. You eliminated one, it's no longer in the "contest".
One of those two boxes remaining has a silver ball in it. Is it the box with one ball or is it the box with two balls?
50/50
The thing is, IF you pick a gold ball, then it's twice as likely that you picked from the two gold ball box as the mixed box. Twice as likely that the other ball in that box is gold.
IF you pick a silver ball, then it's twice as likely that you picked from the two silver ball box as the mixed box. Twice as likely that the other ball in that box is silver.
Yeah, 1/3 of the time the initial pick will be the mixed box, but 2/3 of the time the selected box contains two balls of the same color. Which color isn't really relevant, just in this hypothetical, it's the gold one.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:39 pm to doubleb
Think about it this way. Two boxes left. You pull a gold ball. Is it more likely you have a box that's filled with gold balls, or you happened to pull the one gold ball from a box that had one gold ball in it?
Forget the percentages and all that.
Forget the percentages and all that.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:40 pm to doubleb
quote:
One of those two boxes remaining has a silver ball in it. Is it the box with one ball or is it the box with two balls?
Correct, but the fact that you are pre-determined to pull a gold means that your choice between the two boxes is not 50/50.
There are three gold balls, G1B1, G2B1, G1B2.
If you pull one of these balls randomly 100 times, then ~67 times you will pull from B1
~33 times you will pull from B2
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:40 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
i'm just reading OP and saw you were the last poster (and i respect your math skillz). 50%, right? 2 options for 2 boxes
Nah. If you pick a gold ball first, there are only three possible outcomes for the next draw. Two of those outcomes give you a gold ball, while just one gives you a silver ball. So the answer is 2/3.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:41 pm to ell_13
quote:
The brain wants to forget that from the get go, there was a larger chance of choosing the box with two golds.
Yep.
You've picked one of three gold balls. Two of the three options guarantee a second gold ball. One of them has no chance at another gold ball. As a result, the chance of the next ball being gold are 67%.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:41 pm to Scooba
There's a 50/50 chance now.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:42 pm to doubleb
quote:
There's a 50/50 chance now.
You're wrong.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 1:42 pm to LordSaintly
quote:Wrong. There are only 2 possible outcomes. 1 gold and 1 silver. The answer is still 67 percent though.
If you pick a gold ball first, there are only three possible outcomes for the next draw. Two of those outcomes give you a gold ball
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