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Started By
Message
re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:02 pm to PearlJam
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:02 pm to PearlJam
quote:correct, but two outcomes that don't have the same probability. Don't think of it as a coin flip, more like an unbalanced coin flip
do. You are missing the point. Once you have picked a gold ball, there aren't 3 distinct outcomes. There are only 2.
1
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:02 pm to slackster
That doesn't change anything. You are either going to pull a man or you are going to pull a woman. You have a 67% chance of pulling a man.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:02 pm to castorinho
quote:it's like you aren't even reading my posts
correct, but two outcomes that don't have the same probability
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:02 pm to PearlJam
quote:
That's fine, but the comment I responded to was wrong. That's all.
I think you're getting tripped up on semantics here. Saying the next ball is either gold or silver, while true, oversimplifies the answer.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:03 pm to PearlJam
You're just not getting it.
You don't know which gold ball you have in your hand. That means either of the two remaining are a possibility. Both equally likely and distinct from one another, and of course accompanied by the silver.
This is why the odds are 2/3 and not 1/2.
You don't know which gold ball you have in your hand. That means either of the two remaining are a possibility. Both equally likely and distinct from one another, and of course accompanied by the silver.
This is why the odds are 2/3 and not 1/2.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:03 pm to Scooba
quote:Holy frick that is what I said
While you may have 2 types of outcome remaining (You pick Gold or you pick Silver) There is still a 2xs greater chance that you will pick the gold outcome
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:03 pm to PearlJam
He isn’t arguing against that.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:04 pm to PearlJam
quote:
That doesn't change anything. You are either going to pull a man or you are going to pull a woman. You have a 67% chance of pulling a man.
Yes. You're correct.
Saying that you are either going to pull John, James, or Jill is also correct.
Explaining the answer as 3 possible outcomes helps people understand why it's not 50/50.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:04 pm to CptRusty
Okay I see it now.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:04 pm to slackster
quote:I'm not.
I think you're getting tripped up on semantics here
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:05 pm to PearlJam
Using your interpretation of the word "outcome", you will get 50%. Frankly, I don't understand how you accept that 67% is the right answer, but you don't see how there are two different ways of drawing a gold ball second.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:05 pm to TH03
quote:And neither am I.
He isn’t arguing against that
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:05 pm to slackster
quote:
Hopefully that helps.
Yes thanks.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:06 pm to PearlJam
quote:
I'm not.
You are.
It's either gold or silver. That's true. That's two possible outcomes.
It's either Gold 1, Gold 2, or Silver 1. That's also true. That's 3 possible outcomes.
It's going to be a ball. That's also true. That's one possible outcome.
All of those are true. Do you agree?
ETA - spending 3 pages arguing with someone who agrees about the answer is a new low for me.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 2:09 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:08 pm to LordSaintly
quote:Because the box you are pulling from only has one ball in it. It is either going to be gold or silver. There aren't 3 outcomes at that point. Only 2. It is more probable that it is one than they other based on the known information.
I don't understand how you accept that 67% is the right answer, but you don't see how there are two different ways of drawing a gold ball second.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:10 pm to PearlJam
quote:
Because the box you are pulling from only has one ball in it. It is either going to be gold or silver. There aren't 3 outcomes at that point. Only 2. It is more probable that it is one than they other based on the known information.
You're correct.
However, saying there are three possible outcomes is also correct, and, IMO, far more useful.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:10 pm to PearlJam
You’re coming off not so smart ITT right now.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:10 pm to PearlJam
You guys are just arguing over the application of the word outcome.
This is fun.
This is fun.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:10 pm to TH03
I'll take that as a compliment from you.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 2:10 pm to PearlJam
I think we are just arguing semantics. It seems like we both understand the solution.
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