re: Severe weather threat continues today for parts of the southeast - Threat is Over.

quote:

---

Is everybody really freaking out about this little line of storms over Texas right now?

---

quote:

---

Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
Sorry for the delay. Here you go. Looks like quite an active day.
There have already been tornado warnings in North Mississippi, and Northeast Texas to start things off, and this is only just a little piece of the beginning. It looks like a 2 day outbreak of severe weather is underway. That outbreak will stretch from East Texas through most of the southeast as far north as Virginia, and as far south as Florida. Let me be clear that this is only a 1 day, and mainly a 6-8 hour window for us locally, but I think we will see several long track, damaging tornadoes across the southeastern 1/4 of the United States in the next two days, with a good potential we see some problems in our area. Here’s what I think will happen locally.
Radar is lighting up ahead of the main cold front in east Texas. Those storms have been consistently severe, and should remain strong to severe this morning, and early afternoon. The main issue will come as storms start to fire out ahead of that main line. That’s when they can become isolated supercells that have the potential to produce strong tornadoes, large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, and damaging wind in excess of 75 mph. Those threats will generally remain isolated, but it is likely that we see all of them somewhere in our area this afternoon. Again, the highest risk is to our northeast, but that basically means they will have a longer duration of a threat, not so much that the threat is for much more severity to the storms. It’s just that they may have to deal with a few rounds, and I think most of us see 1 round, maybe 2. Most of our area is under a moderate risk, or level 4 of 5 threat for severe weather. As the current SPC forecast breaks down, we have a 30% chance of damaging wind within 25 miles of a point, a 30% chance for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter within 25 miles of a point, and a 15% chance of tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. I know that’s a bit confusing, but that roughly equates to the chances of us seeing each of these events in a parish the size of Rapides. These are high end chances, even though the numbers may seem a bit low. In simplest terms, that means that SPC is saying there is a 1 in 6 chance that a tornado hits Rapides Parish today. There is also a 10% chance for significant severe weather, meaning tornadoes of EF2 or greater strength, hail greater than 2 inches in diameter, and wind in excess of 75 mph.
The good news, if you can call it that, is that this is happening during the day, so we will all be aware of what is happening. Don’t find yourself saying you had no idea today was going to be a busy weather day. Have multiple ways to get warnings, especially from around 12:00-8:00 PM. I think 1:00-5:00 is prime time in Rapides Parish, and that timing will be a bit earlier out west, and a bit later to the east. This could absolutely coincide with school pick up. Remember, your child is in a relatively safe place at school. Don’t get caught in a damaging storm trying to get to the pick up line. I would imagine they wouldn’t be letting them out if there are active warnings in place. At least I hope not! There may be a couple of inches of rain in stronger storms, but our main concern today will be severe weather. I will likely be on the road chasing after noon, so I’ll transition from general information, to following along behind the most suspect storm, or the one threatening the most people. It’s always tough to impossible to see tornadoes in Louisiana, so don’t try and see something if you have a tornado warning in your area. It’s why so few people chase here. It’s tough to see, and can be quite dangerous if you aren’t in the right position. I’ll update as things start to unfold.

---

quote:

---

Sun is starting to peak through the clouds in Lafayette. That's not what we want.

---

quote:

---

WSB this morning was saying that the storms shouldn't show up in west metro area until 8 or so tonight.

---