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re: Severe weather this weekend March 14-15

Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:03 am to
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:03 am to
quote:

This is the most concerning severe weather threat/setup for Mississippi and Alabama that I can remember since 4/27/2011. I’m not saying that tomorrow will be at that level, but it’s very concerning.

Hopefully, this will be some good reverse psychology and it will be a bust.

Do you know any particular parameters that could indicate that a bust could occur? Like the low pressure center is further north, or something.
Posted by Wishnitwas1998
where TN, MS, and AL meet
Member since Oct 2010
63704 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:03 am to
Just my .02 cents but I don't think the marginal risk should exist

Nobody really pays attention to it but it's enough that people feel like they are being over forecasted if that makes sense
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216037 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:07 am to
Well this does happen quite often. A lot of areas that are predicted horrid conditions don’t always pan out. Which is a good thing. On the other hand there are places that are the opposite and get smashed by storms that they weren’t expecting…

Bottom line is no matter was is forecast Mother Nature always has the final say.
Posted by PJinAtl
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2007
13964 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:11 am to
quote:

Times like these I miss Glenn Burns, he was our James Spann.

You can follow him on Facebook and when there are major weather events on the horizon (snow, severe storms) he posts about them.

Also, Kirk Mellish (former WSB radio meteorologist) has a blog he posts to and links from his Xwitter where he breaks down the science of some of the weather things and also gives his long range forecasts for upcoming seasons.
Posted by public_enemy
Member since Feb 2015
4982 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:21 am to
What can we expect in West Baton Rouge with this system?
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
46341 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:22 am to
quote:

What can we expect in West Baton Rouge with this system?
the jokes write themselves
Posted by AHM21
Member since Feb 2008
30240 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:27 am to
quote:

This is the most concerning severe weather threat/setup for Mississippi and Alabama that I can remember since 4/27/2011. I’m not saying that tomorrow will be at that level, but it’s very concerning.


I would never compare anything to that day but you are correct. It brings back some awful memories.

Praying it’s a bust but have a feeling tomorrow is going to be a devastating day for many in Alabama and Mississippi.
Posted by AHM21
Member since Feb 2008
30240 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:28 am to
quote:

New data this morning continues to confirm a high potential of a dangerous, two round severe thunderstorm/tornado outbreak for the Deep South late tonight through tomorrow night.

Round one comes tonight from around midnight through 8am tomorrow. Round two from around noon tomorrow through midnight tomorrow night.

*The main concern with round one late tonight/early tomorrow is over the western half of state. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with damaging straight line winds and hail.

*The "big show" is round two tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night; this is when a few violent, long track tornadoes are possible. The risk is statewide.

*I fully understand this is bring much anxiety to some, but we have to lay it out and get people prepared. I don't use strong language often. Simply have a reliable way of getting warnings (never an outdoor siren), and a good plan, and we will get through it all together.

*The maps attached to this post show timelines and risk categories. I will have the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon.


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Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71335 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:29 am to
quote:

Praying it’s a bust but have a feeling tomorrow is going to be a devastating day for many in Alabama and Mississippi.

My hope is that all the usual suspects are in here late tomorrow night laughing about this being a bust and much ado about nothing.

Nothing would make me happier.
This post was edited on 3/14/25 at 10:30 am
Posted by IAmNERD
Member since May 2017
23664 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:38 am to
Ahhh, shite. I really don't wanna deal with bad weather right now. Got a lot going on right now and now I've got a couple more things to do so we are prepared.

Good luck to all and stay safe.
Posted by Bamagirl1980
Member since May 2019
72 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:39 am to
I sure hope it is a bust too. What would have to happen to make it less severe? This is so scary.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71335 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:42 am to
quote:

Sticky this thread?

I think it needs it. I'll RA for sticky.
Posted by Funky Tide 8
Bayou Chico
Member since Feb 2009
55890 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:43 am to
We have family down visiting us in Pensacola, got a condo in perdido key for the weekend. Might see some water spouts tomorrow.
Posted by Turnblad85
Member since Sep 2022
4373 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:44 am to
quote:

Just my .02 cents but I don't think the marginal risk should exist


In general, the nws et al have done a poor job of make the various risk levels intuitively apparent to the general public.

" warning, watch, enhanced, high, moderate".

You can tell a scientist came up with the ratings and not someone trained in communication.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
46341 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:48 am to
quote:

intuitively apparent to the general public.
now there’s an oxymoron if there ever was one
Posted by Park duck
Sip
Member since Oct 2018
602 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:51 am to
quote:

Kids that age think they are bullet proof, but I would ask him to make sure he has a weather app on his phone. Also if he has an iPhone he can go to settings, notifications, scroll down to the very bottom (past apps) and make sure emergency alerts and public safety alerts are turned on.

Many kids hate those alerts but you should ask him to at least turn them on while driving home. He can disable when storms are past.
Nobody listens to the radio anymore and he would not get the alert in the car...

That ain't no lie. My youngest is home for spring break and was talking about sleeping in his truck(national forest) turkey season starts tomorrow. I asked what his plans were still to go on out there. He has changed his mind hahahahaha
Posted by Funky Tide 8
Bayou Chico
Member since Feb 2009
55890 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:54 am to
My turkey hunting friends are quite obsessed with turkey hunting so that checks out.
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
26679 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:55 am to
Can someone start a new thread on this weather… this thread is now five days old and hasn't been updated since Tuesday… I would prefer the first page of the thread to be more current. Thanks!
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61265 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 10:57 am to
The boss has spoken. Do your thing weather guys.
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
26679 posts
Posted on 3/14/25 at 11:00 am to
or we can leave this thread, but I do not want to sticky a thread like this with a stale first page...
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