- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Severe weather this weekend March 14-15
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:18 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:18 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Not an April 27, 2011 level outbreak, because those only tend to happen once every 30-40 years,
Thanks, James, for this.
However, every 30-40 years makes no sense to me.
There's nothing rhythmic about the weather so, to say something will occur only once every 30 years is not genuine to a current threat.
Its not like we need to completely let our guard down until 2041 when the 30 years are up.
Certainly I can understand the infrequency of very unique meteorological events. Every event is unique. Every one.
James' reasoning for this " once every 30-40 years" is based on the 1974 outbreak until the 2011 outbreak. And I guess the outbreak of 1932.
But, this offers no guarantees of any future levels of events.
3
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:19 am to Lg
Live on the Eastern Shore just N of Gulf Shores, just south of the current moderate area. Gonna be a weather watch kinda day over here...
Y'all keep yo heads down, praying for all in the extreme areas. Got relatives in Ocean Springs, the B'ham area and W of the Atl...
Y'all keep yo heads down, praying for all in the extreme areas. Got relatives in Ocean Springs, the B'ham area and W of the Atl...
This post was edited on 3/13/25 at 10:20 am
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:24 am to East Coast Band
I'm assuming he's just saying this isn't quite forecast to that top end yet, and remarking that days hitting those peaks are exceedingly rare. Ie, this could be a very bad day without reaching THAT day, which we should expect only 2-3 times a century.
No?
No?
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:30 am to East Coast Band
I understand your point but I think James is just trying to convey, basically, that days like that are incredibly rare in a way that the common (aka fricking stupid) person can understand
One of James's biggest and constant crusades is figuring out how to better convey information to common (aka fricking stupid) people. It's admirable and he's a much better man than me but for example he consistently talks about how we have so many people who literally can't read a map and not in a derisive way like I would but in a "we have to figure out how to help these people way"
One of James's biggest and constant crusades is figuring out how to better convey information to common (aka fricking stupid) people. It's admirable and he's a much better man than me but for example he consistently talks about how we have so many people who literally can't read a map and not in a derisive way like I would but in a "we have to figure out how to help these people way"
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:30 am to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
I was in Tuscaloosa on 4/27/11 and was in Hattiesburg for multiple large tornados in that area. I don't wish that on anyone
59 to 20/59 is a conveyer belt for tornadoes in the Deep South during March & April.
If there was going to be a major outbreak and without getting to know where it was forecast to go I got to pick two places not to be it would be I59 from Hattiesburg to Birmingham and I40 around Oklahoma City.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:43 am to East Coast Band
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:47 am to East Coast Band
quote:
Thanks, James, for this. However, every 30-40 years makes no sense to me. There's nothing rhythmic about the weather so, to say something will occur only once every 30 years is not genuine to a current threat. It’s not like we need to completely let our guard down until 2041 when the 30 years are up. Certainly I can understand the infrequency of very unique meteorological events. Every event is unique. Every one. James' reasoning for this " once every 30-40 years" is based on the 1974 outbreak until the 2011 outbreak. And I guess the outbreak of 1932. But, this offers no guarantees of any future levels of events.
You’re right, there are no guarantees that another generational outbreak won’t happen until 30-40 years after 4/27/11. One could happen this year or next year or any year. However, they are very rare and that much time tends to pass between those type of events. No event since 4/27/11 has had a setup that is as perfect as the setup was that day. I don’t think Spann likes to have to say that about 4/27/11, but it’s inevitable that when we have these high end events like what we’re likely to see Saturday, people are going to ask if it could be at that 4/27/11 level.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:52 am to Wishnitwas1998
One thing I like about James is that he works to balance getting through to stupid people and accuracy because he understands the long term credibility risk. While obviously there are weather personalities who don't do that, I think as an industry/field they're more sensitive to it than most.
Which other authorities could learn a lot from (cough, public health, cough).
Which other authorities could learn a lot from (cough, public health, cough).
Posted on 3/13/25 at 10:57 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
I was still in high school when it happened. We had that terrible line of storms early that morning. Five people died in Alabama from the morning storms and over a quarter million people in Alabama had no power after the morning round. For some reason my school system didn’t cancel and instead we went to school just to be released before lunch. Anyway, I remember being in my 1st period class that morning and looking out the window around 8:00 or 8:30 and the sun was shining brightly. I knew then that the afternoon round was still on. Of course, I still didn’t imagine it would be as horrific as it turned out to be.
Ive lived in Tuscaloosa my entire life. That was a very bad day. Here is a great friend of mines house.
That event is what got me into helping people (feeding them) after disasters.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 11:03 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Lots of color on the outlooks now.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 11:05 am to Pettifogger
quote:
One thing I like about James is that he works to balance getting through to stupid people and accuracy because he understands the long term credibility risk. While obviously there are weather personalities who don't do that, I think as an industry/field they're more sensitive to it than most.
Because they/he has actual accountability. Of course, he does actually care for people and 4/27/11 had a huge impact on him, but it boils down to on-air mets actually being accountable to their communities. Those lines of accountability have been blurred in the social media age of weather forecasting/tracking.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 11:14 am to LegendInMyMind
He understands that he and his team are the front line of preventing loss of life. To be able to balance that desire to help against the morons that rant when his forecast exceeds the severity of reality, is a truly special skill. James Spann has the patience of Job.
He also understands that he is servicing an undereducated state, and does a great job of both "tech talk" and layman's terminology. He's the best in the business
He also understands that he is servicing an undereducated state, and does a great job of both "tech talk" and layman's terminology. He's the best in the business
Posted on 3/13/25 at 11:19 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
When I was a kid in the 80’s and 90’s, we just let the weather do its thing and we handled it.
Are we not still letting weather do its thing? Lol
Posted on 3/13/25 at 11:55 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
SPC isn’t allowed to issue a high risk beyond the day 2 outlook. I expect that sometime tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night, they will add a high risk area for Saturday.
I expect it to be from around Hattiesburg north to Starkville and western central portion of Alabama
Posted on 3/13/25 at 11:58 am to deltaland
Going from toddlers being out all week for Spring Break right into stormageddon
frick me
frick me
Posted on 3/13/25 at 12:04 pm to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
One thing about 4/27/2011 that I don't think gets talked about enough is how there were two rounds that day AND in just a matter of 4-6 hours the atmosphere was primed enough it was able to recover to have optimal tornadic conditions
I was at MSU during that outbreak. That was the scariest yet most awesome thing I’ve ever witnessed. Wind was howling and sun was out, humid and hot as hell. Sky would be clear, then in 10 minutes it would go black and sirens go off. 30 minutes later sun was back out. Repeat about 4 times that day
Never seen storms build up so fast. Sat on my balcony all day with beer and watched the sky
Posted on 3/13/25 at 12:07 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
While obviously there are weather personalities who don't do that, I think as an industry/field they're more sensitive to it than most.
it is a tight line to walk
the space city weather guys have fallen victim of trying not to be the doomcasters you see everywhere on twitter. There are so many clowns that take GFS runs 14 days out and post them during hurricane seasons. So actually decent mets are playing against it when those doomcasters so just be ignored by everyone.
Posted on 3/13/25 at 12:17 pm to East Coast Band
Looking very likely we will be experiencing some Sand Mountain Magic once again on Saturday evening. Geez. I literally can’t count the number of confirmed tornadoes we have had within 10 miles of my home in the last 20 years. It’s definitely over 10, including the F5 on April 27, 2011. There was also one that hit near us early that morning that everyone forgets about. 36 of the people killed that day were from our small county (DeKalb).
Posted on 3/13/25 at 12:18 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
He understands that he and his team are the front line of preventing loss of life. To be able to balance that desire to help against the morons that rant when his forecast exceeds the severity of reality, is a truly special skill. James Spann has the patience of Job. He also understands that he is servicing an undereducated state, and does a great job of both "tech talk" and layman's terminology. He's the best in the business
And he knows the state of Alabama better than anyone. I think you could give him a map with every street but no names and he could label every one. And probably tell you names of people who live on them
He goes above and beyond just reporting the weather
Posted on 3/13/25 at 12:19 pm to deltaland
quote:
And he knows the state of Alabama better than anyone. I think you could give him a map with every street but no names and he could label every one. And probably tell you names of people who live on them
And he will know the closest hole in the wall BBQ joint to that street.
Page 11 of 21
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News