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Message
re: Severe Weather Moving East Today
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:19 pm to rds dc
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:19 pm to rds dc
quote:
I would call that clustering vs "lining" out, esp since they are in the open warm sector. Those cells could cause some trouble up in Oklahoma as they mature. Later on, storms should line out pretty quickly because of how the winds (shear) are oriented with regards to the front.
I see I see. The wind has picked up here in N.Dallas substantially. Enough to hear it hit the windows now.
1
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:20 pm to slackster
lost my link to Intellicast radar...does anyone have a new link or is it done?...
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:21 pm to farad
quote:
lost my link to Intellicast radar...does anyone have a new link or is it done?...
Intellicast was absorbed by WeatherUnderground.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:22 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
thanks Ravens...I knew that but had the ip for their radar until 2 days ago...
oh well...
thanks!...
oh well...
thanks!...
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:23 pm to Hudson00
quote:
Will these straight line winds be coming directly from the west?
Will be strong, steady winds out of due south right up until the line gets here, at which point winds and gusts are expected to pick up and be out of the due west for Natchez area. The more north you go the winds will be more WSW, the more south you go from Natchez the winds will be more out of the WNW to even NW along the coastal parishes in central LA and further east.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:24 pm to farad
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:26 pm to slackster
quote:
Sometimes, a black hatched area will be overlaid with the severe probabilities. Black hatching means a 10% or higher probability for significant severe events within 25 miles of any point. "Significant" is defined as: tornadoes rated EF2 or greater, thunderstorm wind gusts of hurricane force (74 mph) or higher, or hail 2 inches or larger in diameter.
So, if I'm understanding correctly, the base percentage is the probability that any severe weather will happen within a certain distance near any random point in the shaded area.
The hatching over the base probability doesn't really indicate a greater chance that you will get severe weather, but that the atmosphere is primed for any severe weather you do get to potentially be way more intense and damaging than your typical severe weather event.
Is that about the gist of how that goes?
This post was edited on 1/10/20 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:27 pm to rds dc
Just bought a new car. Should I be worried about Hail in New Orleans?
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:28 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
The wind has picked up here in N.Dallas substantially. Enough to hear it hit the windows now.
quote:
Isolated thunderstorm activity may already be initiating near/west of the Metroplex, and latest model output suggests that a more notable increase in storm development is possible near and south of the Red River by around 19Z (1PM local). Although early activity may be initially rooted in a strengthening low/mid tropospheric warm advection regime, a quick transition to boundary-layer based convection seems probable through 20-21Z (2-3pm local). As this occurs, the risk for supercells with the potential to produce tornadoes is expected to increase. Otherwise, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe hail.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:28 pm to danilo
quote:
Just bought a new car. Should I be worried about Hail in New Orleans?
Hail yes I’d be worried.
This post was edited on 1/10/20 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:29 pm to danilo
Hail doesn't bust car windows in New Orleans...people do
This post was edited on 1/10/20 at 12:30 pm
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:29 pm to danilo
quote:
Just bought a new car. Should I be worried about Hail in New Orleans?
Get a car cover or blankets/tarps to put over the car
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:32 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
Is that about the gist of how that goes?
That's a good synopsis.
If you notice on the chart, a 15% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of you would garner an "Enhanced" categorical outlook. If that same 15% chance of any tornado includes a 10%+ chance that tornadoes would be EF2 or higher, the categorical outlook would be upgraded to "Moderate". You're no more likely to see a tornado in either scenario, but if you see one it's more likely to be EF2 or higher under the latter.
Granted, I hate the scale - moderate sounds less concerning than enhanced IMO - but that's the gist of it.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:38 pm to danilo
quote:
Just bought a new car. Should I be worried about Hail in New Orleans?
Jokes about being worried about your belongings in New Orleans notwithstanding, hail isn't a likely thread across southern LA with this system. In fact, hail is the lowest percentage threat for tomorrow according to the NWS.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:38 pm to slackster
Surprised the tornado and severe threat will be so high in western Ms considering the timing is midnight to early morning.
I wouldn’t think there would be enough heat and energy by then to produce much more than a thunderstorm
I wouldn’t think there would be enough heat and energy by then to produce much more than a thunderstorm
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:38 pm to rds dc
18z special balloon launch by NWS FWD still showing a strong cap in place. This could hold storm development off for a bit longer (as expected) and might keep storms isolated longer (wild card). Any isolated storm will quickly go severe and pose a significant tornado threat.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:39 pm to slackster
quote:
Granted, I hate the scale - moderate sounds less concerning than enhanced IMO - but that's the gist of it.
In my experience "slight" means you're going to get rocked. Anything above that and you better have your affairs in order.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:40 pm to slackster
quote:
fact, hail is the lowest percentage threat for tomorrow according to the NWS
Well that’s no good. I was really banking on a new roof.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:44 pm to slackster
quote:
Jokes about being worried about your belongings in New Orleans notwithstanding, hail isn't a likely thread across southern LA with this system. In fact, hail is the lowest percentage threat for tomorrow according to the NWS.
Thanks. Have a link which list the percentage threats?
This post was edited on 1/10/20 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:47 pm to rds dc
quote:
18z special balloon launch by NWS FWD still showing a strong cap in place. This could hold storm development off for a bit longer (as expected) and might keep storms isolated longer (wild card). Any isolated storm will quickly go severe and pose a significant tornado threat.
Not much of a cap up here in NEOK currently
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