re: Severe Weather - Today - LA, MS, AL, NW FL

We are supposed to drive from Tuscaloosa to New Orleans tomorrow, leaving around 11. This is looking like a bad idea. Would driving down to Mobile, then cutting across improve conditions? Only add about 1.5 hours...

Lighting strikes. But no thunder. Rain not super heavy in sw Austin

ETA2: Hmmm... It's not there anymore. False alarm. Sorry guys

quote:

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Local NBC reporting tornadic activity in Carrollton and Lewisville.

NBC Radar


ETA: Click Layers and enable Storm Track option.

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The weather report is fraud. That was a very weak storm and we were supposed to get hit hard. The weatherman is full of shite. Expect good weather Easter weekend

The radar isn’t accurately displaying this storm. Weak af

SPC Update for tomorrow across the deep south.



Summary:

quote:

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Severe thunderstorms are possible today across the lower Mississippi Valley through the central Gulf Coast states, accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, some of which could become strong.

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quote:

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Some uncertainty exists concerning how quickly thunderstorms will redevelop and intensify along eastward advancing outflow generated by ongoing thunderstorm activity now spreading through eastern Texas. There appears likely to be at least some stabilization of mid-level lapse rates. However, guidance indicates that southerly 850 mb flow may strengthen in excess of 50 kt, inland of the Louisiana coast through Mississippi, as early as the 18-21Z time frame. This probably will be accompanied by a corridor of considerable boundary layer moistening, with guidance indicating surface dew points increasing through the upper 60s to near 70 F as far north as at least much of southern/southwestern Mississippi, contributing to CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.

Aided by strongly difluent and divergent upper flow, and strong
vertical shear, a gradually intensifying and organizing squall line
is expected to be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging
wind gusts, and perhaps a few embedded tornadoes. As the convective
system advances eastward, it may be preceded by discrete supercell
development, and a weak warm frontal zone, which may provide the
focus for large clockwise curved low-level hodographs supportive of
a risk for tornadoes. A couple of these could become strong,
perhaps as far east as southeastern Alabama by late tonight.

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Not much has changed, but the enhanced region is extended out east some.

Notably, the tornado risk is pegged for south MS and AL.



I'm not terribly surprised. Was thinking earlier today that it was southern Mississippi in for the better tornado risk.



Wind within the storms tomorrow is the biggest risk for us in south Louisiana.

Doing a late look at the short range modeling, it's been quite a spread. The 00z NAM has storms firing pretty early, like 10 am, and not having much instability in place. Overall, it's not showing any extreme scenarios. The HRRR is more bullish and gets the storms going a little later. Soundings produced are suggestive of stronger tornado potential, but the linear/cluster presentation isn't likely to yield that.

The HRW sets set the best tornado risk north of Louisiana too, with a cluster/line coming through after lunch.

Overall, not too bad for Louisiana as it stands but uncertainty remains.

Traffic is backed up for miles right now due to the Governor's last minute Contraflow plan. I'm sitting on I-10 waiting to move and praying I have enough gas to make it to the next gas station.

Contraflow to where?

He’s just trying to troll and doing a really bad job at it.