re: Saturday night/Sunday morning North Louisiana light snow event

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It might not be a 100% fact, but most of the time when it snows in Baton Rouge it is 31 degrees. Been here and seen dat.

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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 938 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 .EVENING UPDATE...No adjustments made to tonight`s forecast but we did adjust tomorrow and tomorrow nights forecast. Timing is still similar with tomorrow`s activity. First round of convection appears to be associated with waa possibly a warm front sliding north. One thing to watch will be how far east that can move and how fast. If that activity is slower to move out or is anchored closer to the coast then we will struggle to recover and the amount of convection that will be associated with the cold front tomorrow afternoon will be far lower than currently forecasting. On the other hand of that activity moves to the east and northeast a little faster it will allow for better destabilization and perhaps a few strong storms...can`t rule out one or two severe but the most likely risk of strong/severe weather will be quick weak tornadoes early in the afternoon. These could very well develop on showers, so yeah no lighting with some of these is possible. The best directional shear will be from morning and into the early afternoon but winds quickly become unidirectional mid afternoon and ahead of the cold front. As for Winter Weather, the key will be the path of the mid level low. The trend had been a little south so we shall see if that continues. If the low can get a touch farther south then light snow would be possible in southwest MS, not just flurries. Flurries do look likely in southwest MS and the adjacent LA parishes but could even be possible down to I-12. The next thing to watch which we wont see till tomorrow evening will be how much moisture can wrap around it. All indications suggest there could be a rather decent amount of moisture wrapping around, probably due to what looks like an impressive TROWAL ahead of it across MS and AL. We did bring flurries a little farther south with this update but holding off on any real accumulating snow at this time. Grids and zones will be out shortly. One thing to mention...confidence is low and there is a chance that Winter weather could over preform. The key again is that wrap around moisture. Numerous forecast soundings over the last 12-18 hours has indicated there could be a brief window of rather decent waa/lift in the dendritic zone. At the same time the column looks pretty well saturated from the sfc and perhaps all the way to h7. If, and this is a big IF, that happens we could be see a window of moderate snow possibly leading to some light accumulations. If that happens it would most likely be in southwest MS. At this time the potential for any meaningful snow is rather low in SELA and coastal MS but southwest MS will need to be monitored. This could make travel along I-55 from the LA/MS border north through the state rather dangerous to drive on. /CAB/

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