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2
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:04 pm to highpockets
Pulled it out. Still doing work baby. Gonna miss this truck
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:04 pm to jimbeam
You gonna come steal it?
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:05 pm to IAmNERD
quote:
Im not gonna be one to shite on these forecasters. They have a tough job. But this on was kind of weird. Calling for NOLA early on, only to shift east all the way to AL/FL border. Then, she sits out there and looks to be breaking up or weakening most of yesterday only to strengthen a good deal right before and as she comes ashore...Just a weird storm that did catch some off guard.
Not necessarily the NHC's fault as all the advisories they put out basically said they weren't really sure and to stay vigilant.
Practically every storm this season has begun as a very sloppy/messy area of convection. None of them have had a discernible center, and took days to develop one. A few were tilted storms with a LLC offset from the MLC. That is a nightmare to forecast longterm, with both track and intensity.
Now, we can add in the fact that global models are operating at a handicap, missing a considerable chunk of real time, important data that would be gathered by commercial airlines around the world. That missing data is going to prove to be a huge handicap in post-season analysis.
I've said it before, and I will say it again, this may be the worst season ever to be missing that chunk of data. There is no making up for it. Soundings from the continental US can help, but they cannot fill the void. Expectations for longterm, or even midterm, forecasting by the NHC should be fairly dialed back.
It is what it is, and hopefully we never see this issue again.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:06 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
missing a considerable chunk of real time, important data that would be gathered by commercial airlines around the world.
interesting. Did not know that.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:07 pm to IAmNERD
The thing with the forecast is most of the steering was picked out correctly and it did what was expected except it's slowness ended up having a little upper trough over the south central US come into play and push it more NNE into landfall.
From I post I made on Saturday, where my "cone" of Grand Isle to Fort Morgan missed but the general idea held.
Pretty much what happened, though I still expected too much forward speed at that point to be fair.
Is this not what happened, except for missing that pesky trough in the south central US that gave a little east push to have it going NNE by landfall because the storm was later? The storm was slower and not as far west by early Monday. Slowed, center got pulled NE as it did, and did a stall.
Euro from Saturday at noon for this morning. There's the trough that pushed it NE, but the thought process was at this point it would be inland by this point.
The miss was way overestimating forward speed and then hard to predict organizational dynamics also holding it back.
Always something to learn with every storm, and there will be learning from this.
From I post I made on Saturday, where my "cone" of Grand Isle to Fort Morgan missed but the general idea held.
quote:
Ridge builds in over the south by midday on Monday and this will push anything west. The storm will slow down also.
Pretty much what happened, though I still expected too much forward speed at that point to be fair.
quote:
Then by Tuesday the ridge has re-oriented to the east of the storm and pushes it north and inland.
The question at play here is just how fast this thing gets to the west by early Monday.
Is this not what happened, except for missing that pesky trough in the south central US that gave a little east push to have it going NNE by landfall because the storm was later? The storm was slower and not as far west by early Monday. Slowed, center got pulled NE as it did, and did a stall.
Euro from Saturday at noon for this morning. There's the trough that pushed it NE, but the thought process was at this point it would be inland by this point.
The miss was way overestimating forward speed and then hard to predict organizational dynamics also holding it back.
Always something to learn with every storm, and there will be learning from this.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:09 pm to AU_251
Make that Titan a flatbed and keep rolling 
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:10 pm to McGregor
quote:
interesting. Did not know that.
Nearly every commercial airliner you see flying has weather instrumentation on it. If they are flying, they are constantly gathering data. That data is fed into global models.
The travel bans and decline in commercial travel due to Covid has taken a considerable number of planes out of the air. That missing data is going to prove to be much more valuable than anyone thought.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:11 pm to weadjust
Not a bad idea ... I do love this truck it’s a workhorse and I landscape so I need a truck ASAP. We’ll see what happens
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:12 pm to AU_251
I still can’t get over the size of the tree top that it snapped to fall.
And some of the trees around me that are down are absolutely massive. The wind where I am had to have been stronger than reported.
And some of the trees around me that are down are absolutely massive. The wind where I am had to have been stronger than reported.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:13 pm to AU_251
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:14 pm to AU_251
This is a road right behind my house. Looks like a tornado came through. Soooo many trees down.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:15 pm to Duke
This is by far the worst “Cat 2” damage I have ever seen
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:15 pm to AU_251
how far away from I-10 are you?
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:16 pm to Duke
quote:
Duke
Hey bud... I like your weather info. but you are sounding a little arogant here...
MY only suprise it that it slowed down... I knew a move to the east was coming........
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:17 pm to AU_251
quote:
Not a bad idea ... I do love this truck it’s a workhorse and I landscape so I need a truck ASAP. We’ll see what happens
If the insurance totals it. You can probably buy the salvage and find a used bed the same color. Swapping out the bed isn't that difficult if the frame isn't bent.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:17 pm to tiger91
They should use the battleship in Mobile to sink the barge just because it’d be awesome
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:18 pm to weadjust
Any update from the Baw that rode it out at the Portofino ?
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:18 pm to dukke v
quote:ban this fool
Hey bud... I like your weather info. but you are sounding a little arogant here...
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:19 pm to Duke
quote:
The miss was way overestimating forward speed and then hard to predict organizational dynamics also holding it back.
Always something to learn with every storm, and there will be learning from this.
No doubt. Overall, forecasters do a great job. People that expect total accuracy in track and intensity with humans trying to predict mother nature are setting their expectations way too high. I really appreciate you guys that do these storm threads and I've learned a lot over the past couple seasons. Like you said, one factor, like forward speed, can change the dynamics of the storm.
I think my biggest surprise with this storm was the intensity. I don't live in the coast so I'm not checking every single update like I would if I lived on the coast. I was in here skimming yesterday after lunch and the prevailing thought was she was breaking up a little. And then I get up early this am to see about landfall and she is wreaking havoc down there.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 2:22 pm
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