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Message
re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:29 pm to NorthEndZone
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:29 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
6 to 10 inches is bad enough but if spread out over time may not be a huge problem.
See that dot in Orleans Parish that calls for 14"?
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 4:45 pm
2
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:35 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
She that dot in Orleans Parish that calls for 14"?
right on da Destroya's house
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:43 pm to NorthEndZone
Damn, the Gulf is gonna get flooded AF
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:46 pm to NorthEndZone
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:50 pm to NorthEndZone
GFS pretty much same location and intensity as last run...
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:53 pm to NorthEndZone
Basically on the NHC path too. Still too weak I think but the idea is pretty solid at this point.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:56 pm to Duke
So my phone just showed a Hurricane Watch for Ascension parish, expiring at 1 am tomorrow? No other surrounding parishes, just us. Is this a glitch with the app?
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:57 pm to LaBR4
quote:
LaBR4
Signing every post with your name and those images is lame as frick and any shot of it being funny stopped after your first post or two using them.
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:59 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
See that dot in Orleans Parish that calls for 14"?
Meh... Laura was supposed to flood Lake Charles enough to move the coast line to Beauregard Parish. Didn't happen.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 4:59 pm to NorthEndZone
GFS track did shift a little east from GI to the River but not really significant at this point.
Now when it gets close to landfall, that 20 to 30 miles will make a big difference like it did for Laura.
Now when it gets close to landfall, that 20 to 30 miles will make a big difference like it did for Laura.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 5:03 pm to stout
quote:
Signing every post with your name and those images is lame as frick and any shot of it being funny stopped after your first post or two using them.
Policing the board is more lame as frick.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 5:04 pm to stout
quote:
Laura was supposed to flood Lake Charles enough to move the coast line to Beauregard Parish. Didn't happen.
I know you’re kind of being tongue in cheek, but we have to watch that line of thinking. That COULD have happened. And I also know it was a scare tactic to get people to leave. But we all know those storms can drop tons of rain and water in a short period of time.
All I’m saying is you can’t let your guard down when it comes to water.
You guy is coming in Tuesday to give me an estimate on all my work. Everything but the flooring, more than likely. Had someone else lined up for that already. But I have a ton more to do outside of that.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 5:07 pm to Cincinnati Bowtie
quote:
Policing the board is more lame as frick.
Ummmm. That's basically what you just did.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 5:11 pm to Duke
quote:
Basically on the NHC path too. Still too weak I think but the idea is pretty solid at this point.
Yep. From how things are looking and GFS's trend to the weaker end so far this year, a strengthening 2 at landfall seems possible.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 5:12 pm to OldManRiver
quote:
So my phone just showed a Hurricane Watch for Ascension parish, expiring at 1 am tomorrow? No other surrounding parishes, just us. Is this a glitch with the app?
Ascension is under the hurricane watch. It's more for the far east parts of the parish though. It will expire later than that though.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 5:15 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Yep. From how things are looking and GFS's trend to the weaker end so far this year, a strengthening 2 at landfall seems possible.
Strengthening 90 mph is what I'm thinking at this point. Might be a little conservative though.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 5:20 pm to Duke
From Brian Tang @btangyWx (another good Twitter follow):
quote:
The last several runs of the HWRF have had a pretty consistent signal for Sally undergoing RI beginning late Sunday into Monday. There are some signals that support this possibility. (1/5) LINK
quote:
First, the upper-level flow looks to become favorable for intensification. There will be a cutoff low to the SW of Sally, an upper-level trough to the NE of Sally, and an anticyclone over Sally. This flow pattern will result in low wind shear. (2/5) LINK
quote:
Additionally, this cutoff-trough pattern is reminiscent of the RI composite for the NE-trough cluster from @MikeFischerWx et al. (2019), so we know this kind of upper-level pattern has been associated with past TCs that have undergone RI in similar environ. (3/5) LINK
quote:
Second, the midlevel environment around Sally looks to be fairly moist. The tropical wave in the central Gulf of Mexico is helping to moisten the environment to the west of Sally. Greater moisture upshear is associated with a higher probability of RI. (4/5) LINK
quote:
Like with Laura, we are again faced with the possibility of a tropical cyclone undergoing RI as it approaches the coast ??. Hopefully Sally doesn't. Regardless, the forecasted slow movement will be problematic for surge and flood hazards. (5/5)
Posted on 9/12/20 at 5:23 pm to Cosmo
quote:Nah, the Gulf is above sea level.
Damn, the Gulf is gonna get flooded AF
Oh, wait...
Posted on 9/12/20 at 5:25 pm to Duke
St. Bernard Parish here. Inside levee. 90 mph is normally stay for me. Hearing “strengthening 90 mph” worries me
Posted on 9/12/20 at 5:28 pm to stout
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 5:33 pm
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