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Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:40 pm to slackster
Slackster...never let it be said that you are a quitter.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:41 pm to Easye921
quote:A tree fell through our roof and ceiling missing me & my wife by about 10 ft. during Gustav. After the house was repaired we had every tree that could fall on the house removed.
I'm also scared to death of bad weather since a tree almost fell on my house a year ago.
Problem solved. I'm not skeered during bad weather. I sit in my recliner in that same room.
I been closer to being dead other times in the past. I ain't livin in fear of weather.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:41 pm to OceanMan
quote:
I’m trying to decide if I’m going to even pick up my yard on the north shore. Got the essentials done yesterday like generator gas and shopping. Rather not fill up my garage if not necessary
I can't think of anything in my yard that I'd pick up if I was on the Northshore right now. Not sure what you'd have that could blow away in 35 mph winds.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:42 pm to slackster
Looked like a north turn on the last radar. Could just be a wobble but it ticked due North towards Mobile. It just feels like the eye is going to go over the left side of Mobile bay and Gulf Shore/Orange beach are going to catch that northern right quadrant. Not the best for those two beaches.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:44 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
Slackster...never let it be said that you are a quitter.
Yesterday or the day before I pointed out how prone to multipage insignificant arguments I can be. I know my faults.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:44 pm to slackster
quote:Why ya'll downvoted this?
NHC makes a forecast of where they believe the center is most likely to be in 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 94, and 120 hours. They take the 5 year errors at each of those intervals and find the standard deviation. They then create a circle around the center predictions that has a radius of 1 standard deviation - essentially creating a circle that should encompass 65% of track errors. That circle has nearly shrunk in half over the last 15 years as forecasting has improved greatly. Lastly, they take the 7 circles they've created and connect them all at the edges to make a cone.
The cone can move every 6 hours at the full updates. When people say the storm has never left the cone, what they mean is that the storm's current location was in every previous cone that was provided over the last 5 days. The cone moves for lots of reasons, but you cannot find a cone for Sally that didn't encompass where she CURRENTLY is.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:46 pm to John Casey
Ditto, mandeville here. Tons of mature pine trees.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:46 pm to slackster
quote:
how prone to multipage insignificant arguments I can be.
Be proud you have the time or the patience.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:47 pm to BRgetthenet
quote:
BRgetthenet
Have you directed your troops to stand down?
Haven't seen any updates for this storm.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:48 pm to rds dc
quote:
Cloud tops had been warming near the center all afternoon but this new convective burst might be a sign that the system will once again try for some accelerated strengthening.
That blowup from earlier faded and now another burst is going up. This convective pattern is consistent with a steady state or only slowly strengthening system. Recon is still reporting an open eyewall and finding pressure not really changing much.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:48 pm to John Casey
quote:
My biggest fear with 40 or so trees on my property in Mandeville. Stayed home through Tropical Storm / Low Cat 1 and saw enough trees come down in the neighborhood to leave every time a storm comes through, now.
I want to leave, but I take care of my elderly dad who just got home. He went into cardiac arrest on the way to the hospital. It was a miracle he survived and is in better shape than I've seen him in years. Anyways, he said he isnt leaving. I cant leave him by himself, so I guess I'm going to ride it out.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:49 pm to BamaCoaster
quote:
My issue with mobile is the people. I moved to gulf Shores in 2015 and ended up marrying a woman whose family was from mobile, dating back generations.
Swear to Jesus, when I met some of her friends, they asked me where I went to school. I said LSU. They said no, which high school did you go to? I was like, who the fuq cares.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:49 pm to RiseUpATL
quote:
It just feels like the eye is going to go over the left side of Mobile bay
That's what the NHC seems to think too. Basically Dauphin Island.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:50 pm to rds dc
Just pulsing and also...not really moving either.
Hopefully the structure work continues for a while yet.
Hopefully the structure work continues for a while yet.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:51 pm to slackster
quote:
Dauphin Island.
Western side of that island should never have been developed. That’ll be hit the worst of any area in my opinion.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:52 pm to Duke
quote:
Just pulsing and also...not really moving either.
Current pulse seems a bit more earnest than the previous one, but yeah, not much has changed on recon data in the past few hours.
As you mentioned, probably not a 100mph storm anymore either. 90mph? Maybe.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:53 pm to slackster
Neva challenge Mother Nature...she's undefeated.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:53 pm to Duke
quote:
Just pulsing and also...not really moving either.
I knew a girl once...
Posted on 9/14/20 at 8:54 pm to back9Tiger
Same. You got any recommendations on tree companies to get a bunch of them removed? I've got probably 15 trees that I wouldn't miss
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