re: Potential Gulf Storm before Irma (NHC Dropped This)

Is that a projected path for this "new" storm? And this will be in addition to the remnants of Harvey?

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Can you explain how this happens (in fairly simple terms for an idiot like me)?

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This is getting into rds and bay territory, but I'll do my best. Either one of them, please correct any mistakes as I'm extrapolating some things.

Harvey will transition into an "extratropical" cyclone as he moves along north. Instead of being a nice symmetric system, he'll end up looking more like your typical midwest low pressure system or a nor-easter with a cold and warm front as pictured below.



The trailing "cold" front will extend into the Gulf of Mexico. The front is a boundary between cooler dry continental air and the warm moist gulf air. Cooler dry air is more dense than the incoming warm gulf air, and near the bottom where there is less forcing of the dry air into the gulf there's an opportunity for the warm air to start overrunning the cold and rising up creating a low pressure.

That low pressure will be positioned over the warm gulf waters and start sucking up more warm air and becoming a "warm" core low, which we all know as a tropical cyclone.

That's at least how the process makes sense to me. Guys like rds and baytiger have a much deeper education on the atmosphere than I do, so I may be off the mark with some of this.

Finally, all these storms as "fun" is me being sarcastic.

More "Karma" ?

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Unless you're just being sarcastic, GFY.

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I got my flooded house back liveable like a month and a half ago. Do you think the prospect of a storm coming here is "fun" for me?

What am I missing here? There is absolutely nothing on radar in the gulf

Edit: nevermind. Just read Dukes post

989mb, that's just under a cat one right?

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good info thanks Duke, but I don't eve remember seeing this before is this a rare event?

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It happens more than you think, but typically on the back of a late season front early in the hurricane season. It's a typical source of those june/early july weak TS that form up in the gulf.

For what it's worth, your tone seemed pretty clear to me.

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Duke

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Any misinterpretation is of my own doing

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Speaking of Misinterpretation, I swear to God, I've been reading your posts in the storm thread, and I just realized after all of this time that you're not PJ.