re: Old

Oh man, that would be terrible. Those people don't need anymore rain. Can't imagine if that area gets caught by the storm coming out of Campeche and them whatever 93L becomes as well.

06z GFS has 93L out to sea, not even touching the east coast.

Note: 93L and the potential gulf threat are two different storms.

Given recent events though, I'm not on board with any bullshite the GFS gives.

quote:

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Advisories will likely be initiated at 11 AM EDT on the low pressure area west of the Cabo Verde Islands. #93L

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Growing increasingly concerned about 93L but still think likely outcome is a recurve.

Couple of things to note, overnight ensemble guidance is now clearly picking up the potential for a homebrew Gulf system. It is also showing ever increasing spread for 93L with more members getting into the Gulf.



The Gulf homebrew system will be slow to organize since it will take time for deep convection to rearrange the PV setup.

The models are going to struggle with 93L. Wave breaking across the North Atlantic is going to spin off some ULLs, not to different than what we saw during 92Ls trip across the Atlantic. Then there is a massive WPAC system that is going to pump a ton of energy into the high latitudes and that always gives the models fits. As that energy is distributed to the downstream waves it will determine the large scale setup across America and the Atlantic as 93L approaches. Stronger Eastern trough and weaker Atlantic ridge closes doors to the Gulf. The reverse certainly causes concern.

That's a joke right?

Dude WTF... frick the GFS