re: Old

All this shite makes my head hurt...

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Models this far out are worthless

Dumb to stress over

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Exactly. It's only recently that the general public is seeing long range models, so they don't realize that every week during Hurricane season, something is projecting some major landfall 500 hours out that never materializes.

If people ever looked at the long rage CMC (referred to as constantly making cyclones) they'd have a weekly heart attack.

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Models this far out are worthless

Dumb to stress over

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No one is stressing, we're discussing.

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This is the thread we're using right?

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Not sure, but probably for the best we stay here.

Our little post Harvey spin up can get a new thread when he forms up, as it isn't going to have the potential impacts of a long track CV storm in the heart of the season.

So the breakoff from Harvey is supposed to be somewhere on the gulf coast by sept 5th? Did I read that correctly?

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Our first post on Irma crashed our site.

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What's your site?

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The models are going to struggle with 93L. Wave breaking across the North Atlantic is going to spin off some ULLs, not to different than what we saw during 92Ls trip across the Atlantic. Then there is a massive WPAC system that is going to pump a ton of energy into the high latitudes and that always gives the models fits. As that energy is distributed to the downstream waves it will determine the large scale setup across America and the Atlantic as 93L approaches. Stronger Eastern trough and weaker Atlantic ridge closes doors to the Gulf. The reverse certainly causes concern.

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Before getting worked up about Irma remember that the models will struggle. However, climo tells us this system will have ample opportunities to curve out to sea.

Many people seem to be confused.

They have a system in the gulf that they expect will hit us next week. Nothing strong just rain that is not needed. If I remember correctly this is what this thread started off talking about and switched to Irma.


In a completely separate issue is Irma.

"Heading into early next week, both the GFS and the ECMWF indicate
that an inverted trough and possible weak low pressure system in
the Gulf of Mexico will move northward toward the forecast area.
The main impact from this trough axis will be a combination of
increased forcing aloft and deeper tropical moisture feeding back
into the area. A lack of any discernible synoptic scale low level
features to focus on implies that any convection forming next
Monday or Tuesday will tend to develop along pre-existing
mesoscale boundaries like seabreeze fronts. The convection will
tend to diurnally driven over land, and have highest POP values 40
to 50 percent in the afternoon hours each day. Expect to see
convective activity turn more isolated over inland areas in the
evening and overnight hours. However, along the immediate coast,
POP values could remain elevated at 30 to 40 percent through the
night as showers and storms offshore move in and dissipate.
Temperatures should remain near climatological averages early
next week."