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1
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:16 am to redstick13
A very large percent of what classed as moored deepwater rigs are being scrapped. The drilling contractors are trying to get rid of sub4000 ft floaters, which was essentially flooding the market. They are all trying to market their newer dps ultra-deep rigs.
What I just can't wrap my head around is the boom in the 300-ft new build jack up market in the last 2-3 years.
What I just can't wrap my head around is the boom in the 300-ft new build jack up market in the last 2-3 years.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:17 am to redstick13
quote:
Yea it's something in the range of 10-20 wells in the shale plays to get the production of 1 deepwater well.
While that can be true, there are times when it'll take 50 shale wells to compare to something like Shells Stones.
quote:
That's not taking into consideration the life expectancy of each. Shale wells peter out much faster.
This is vastly underrated. Shale plays will depreciate at the end of year 1 generally by 50-65% if not re-stimulated. Deep water will lose a few percent, at most, by end of year 1.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:17 am to cave canem
quote:
quote:For ultra Deepwater dynamically positioned drillships the operators need oil at 60 or 65, this is just an educated guess. I fear this segment is about to go the way of the dodo bird. Too expensive and too long to bring to fruition in the age of fracking.
As others have said, Deepwater is still viable at less than 60 bucks easily. Shelf projects are cheap, but produce for 5 years sometimes. A lot of them even less. Deepwater projects produce a lot more for lifespans of 25 years. The cost to drill and complete the well is offset by the reserves that exist. I don't think this is going to be all that big of a change. Especially when you realize that companies like CVX are rumored to be, or actually have sold off their shelf assets, but kept deepwater.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:17 am to cave canem
quote:
For ultra Deepwater dynamically positioned drillships the operators need oil at 60 or 65, this is just an educated guess.
I fear this segment is about to go the way of the dodo bird.
This is the segment that continues throughout downturns. The amount and length a deepwater field produces is equal to a ton of shale plays
This post was edited on 3/9/16 at 8:22 am
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:18 am to fishfighter
quote:What the frick is summer blend?
Fuel is fixing to go up due to summer blend coming
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:21 am to member12
quote:
$60-$80 would be nice. $100-$120 would be pretty painful. I suspect it will head in the other direction again for a while though
60-80 would 100% be "nice". Its pretty much where we were. Yes $100+ oil happened, but it was a sustained average by any means.
quote:
2004 $37.66 $47.04
2005 $50.04 $60.44
2006 $58.30 $68.27
2007 $64.20 $72.98
2008 $91.48 $100.00
2009 $53.48 $58.75
2010 $71.21 $77.10
2011 $87.04 $91.37
2012 $86.46 $88.93
2013 $91.17 $92.40
2014 $85.60 $85.34
Here are the average prices over the last 10 years (to 2014) with the price adjusted for inflation on the far right. Yes we got into the 90's especially after 2010, but 50-60 dollar oil surely wasn't too shabby.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:22 am to The Sad Banana
quote:
What the frick is summer blend?
It's just something in liberal states like California. They have a winter blend of gas and a summer blend. Essentially just to collect more tax dollars while changing very little chemistry. If I'm not mistaken I think California is the only state that has this.
It doesn't affect us down here, so I'm not really sure why he's complaining about that unless he's in California.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:24 am to KG6
Sure it's a bit better, but it has to be sustained in the $40s and $50s before any activity picks up.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:24 am to The Sad Banana
quote:
What the frick is summer blend?
The formula for gasoline is changed to alter the RVP (Reid Vapor Pressure) in response to seasonal temperature changes. The summer blend contains slightly more energy but is also more expensive to produce, so gasoline in the summer is typically more expensive, all else equal. Additionally, this little spike going on at the present is probably because the refineries have to turnaround to summer blend.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:24 am to yellowfin
quote:
I don't see this bump sticking even around $40. Wouldn't be surprised to see it back in the $25-30 range by the end of the month.
Not going to happen. Election is too close.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:25 am to TigerFred
quote:
What I just can't wrap my head around is the boom in the 300-ft new build jack up market in the last 2-3 years.
There is still a pretty big international market for these rigs. West Africa, Egypt, North Sea, etc. There's pretty much nothing left for them on the GOM shelf though.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:26 am to WavinWilly
quote:Okay, that makes some sense.
The formula for gasoline is changed to alter the RVP (Reid Vapor Pressure) in response to seasonal temperature changes. The summer blend contains slightly more energy but is also more expensive to produce, so gasoline in the summer is typically more expensive, all else equal. Additionally, this little spike going on at the present is probably because the refineries have to turnaround to summer blend.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:27 am to JJBTiger2012
quote:
BHP
they still have a Shenzi well to complete.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:29 am to yellowfin
quote:
what departments?
Mostly machinists, welders and shop hands. But shop people make up 75% of the workforce here since the other 25% is office/clerical people.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:32 am to b-rab2
quote:
they still have a Shenzi well to complete.
Last one agh? Got a buddy involved and he's telling me that they're just about done in the gulf.
This post was edited on 3/9/16 at 8:33 am
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:49 am to Jim Rockford
Hell yea bawwww!!!
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:52 am to JJBTiger2012
quote:
Take your shots while you can boys. The price will eventually go up and the baws will be making money again. Unfortunately, you'll still be misserbale, butt hurt, and poor.
You got me there
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:56 am to redstick13
quote:
There is still a pretty big international market for these rigs. West Africa, Egypt, North Sea, etc. There's pretty much nothing left for them on the GOM shelf though.
I ma sitting on one off the coast of Saudi right now, Aramco is still adding rigs and folks.
Most of the newbuild jackups I know of are/where headed to the far east, but you are right the shelf is dead in the GOM.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 9:03 am to JJBTiger2012
quote:I know they have a new drillship. So, done? I dunno. This is an injector well.
he's telling me that they're just about done in the gulf.
Back to CVX, they are still in the process of selling all of their shelf. I don't thing anyone has bought the Bay Marchand assets yet. This is all word of mouth.
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