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Started By
Message
re: Official Thread: Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:31 am to OldHickory
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:31 am to OldHickory
1
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:33 am to Kankles
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:35 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
Reported day after crash. Also that was 9 minutes after transponder went off...which I think makes this impossible.
and, with this day and age, did he not a have a camera phone?
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:39 am to tgrgrd00
quote:
Interesting theory.
Interesting, yes. But why would the flight they were shadowing have to be a 777? Ideal, yes...
I wouldn't think that the radars could determine a 777 from a 747/737 in that instance.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:42 am to Mulat
quote:
They don't float long
777 will stay afloat 4-6 hours max. Thats saying it has a perfect landing.
Never been in a crash and hopefully I can keep saying that but have been in the helo dunker quite a few times.
I never understood why they make fixed wing guys do it. The only way we would be in a situation like that is if our plane crashed, a helo rescued us, and then the helo crashes. Shitty day if you ask me.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:43 am to tgrgrd00
quote:
Interesting theory
And scary if true
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:45 am to Lsut81
I don't understand why everyone has to come up with the most complex theories possible? It's usually the simplest theory. Too much Hollywood. That pilot has trolled everyone. He was mad at the world and ditched in middle of Indian Ocean.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:47 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
It's usually the simplest theory.
Hakims Razor
I'm still waiting for it to pop up exactly where the contact was cut off.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:49 am to JAXTiger16
quote:
but have been in the helo dunker quite a few times.
Army Aviators don't get dunker training - you read about the Emergency Procedure and you are quizzed on it but there is no practice.
Training is so good, as it sounds like you know, all the Emergency Procedures are at your finger tips when you need them.
This post was edited on 3/17/14 at 6:58 am
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:55 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
Interesting, yes. But why would the flight they were shadowing have to be a 777? Ideal, yes.
I think in his scenario, the fact that the other flight is a 777 is incidental.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:56 am to Mulat
Sanity Check - 3/17/14 0300Z
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"
• 3/17/14 0300Z update.
• The facts have not changed much, however speculation and discussion has shifted to potential human actors - including crew.
• I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
• I've added sections on: Cargo, Fuel, Conspiracies, Pilot related conspiracy. I've bolstered ACARS/SATCOM.
• Added primary/secondary Radar discussion
• Updated SATCOM Pings section related to recent "it may have landed" comments.
First a synopsis
• The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
• The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off (See ACARS below)
• The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
• NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" or "Go Broncos" (okay not that one) is very common for handoffs.
• The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
• There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
• There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
• SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
• SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
• These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
• Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
• Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
• The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
• Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
• We have no ELT signal detected.
• While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
• Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.
• Recent reports attributed to the FBI that the plane 'could have landed' and sent a satellite signal from the ground appear to be just confirming what we already knew - that the SATCOM pings could come from an a/c in flight, or powered up on the ground..
• There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.
ACARS
• ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
• ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
• ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
• The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):
• "We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Peninsula Malaysia".
• No explanation of how that determination could be made has been released.
• OPINION: The most likely conjecture I've seen is that ACARS was using VHF comms at that point and some indication of ACARS ceasing communication via VHF can be made. However, this has not been confirmed and it seems to me this could be consistent with ACARS swapping to SATCOM mode?
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"
• 3/17/14 0300Z update.
• The facts have not changed much, however speculation and discussion has shifted to potential human actors - including crew.
• I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
• I've added sections on: Cargo, Fuel, Conspiracies, Pilot related conspiracy. I've bolstered ACARS/SATCOM.
• Added primary/secondary Radar discussion
• Updated SATCOM Pings section related to recent "it may have landed" comments.
First a synopsis
• The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
• The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off (See ACARS below)
• The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
• NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" or "Go Broncos" (okay not that one) is very common for handoffs.
• The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
• There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
• There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
• SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
• SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
• These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
• Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
• Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
• The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
• Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
• We have no ELT signal detected.
• While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
• Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.
• Recent reports attributed to the FBI that the plane 'could have landed' and sent a satellite signal from the ground appear to be just confirming what we already knew - that the SATCOM pings could come from an a/c in flight, or powered up on the ground..
• There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.
ACARS
• ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
• ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
• ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
• The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):
• "We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Peninsula Malaysia".
• No explanation of how that determination could be made has been released.
• OPINION: The most likely conjecture I've seen is that ACARS was using VHF comms at that point and some indication of ACARS ceasing communication via VHF can be made. However, this has not been confirmed and it seems to me this could be consistent with ACARS swapping to SATCOM mode?
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:56 am to PuntBamaPunt
ACARS data from MH370
• The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
• The Rolls Royce page seems to indicate that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
• Based on this, we would expect a cruise and landing report. We have heard of neither.
• The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
• Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
• We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.
SATCOM
• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
• Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
• NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.
SATCOM Pings
• The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
• SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
• The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
• SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
• Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible loci have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
• SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
• People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
• Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
• Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.
• Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.
• Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.
• The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satallite to the a/c.
• Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~29,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.
CRV/FDR Data
• The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
• They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
• The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
• I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.
• The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
• The Rolls Royce page seems to indicate that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
• Based on this, we would expect a cruise and landing report. We have heard of neither.
• The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
• Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
• We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.
SATCOM
• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
• Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
• NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.
SATCOM Pings
• The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
• SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
• The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
• SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
• Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible loci have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
• SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
• People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
• Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
• Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.
• Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.
• Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.
• The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satallite to the a/c.
• Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~29,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.
CRV/FDR Data
• The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
• They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
• The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
• I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:56 am to Lsut81
I just wonder about this data. They say plane was flying for 7 hours...then maybe it was on the ground. Wtf?
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:57 am to PuntBamaPunt
Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
• Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
• Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
• Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
• Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
• Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
• Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
• In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
• Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
• Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
• If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
• In the case of MH370
• The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
• A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.
Way-point Tracks
• The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.
Airworthiness Directive
• The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
• The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna
Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.
• There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
• There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
• There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
• It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
• Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.
Aircraft Fuel State
• It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
• Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
• West over the Malacca straight
• North west of Malacca straight
• Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
• These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
• It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
• I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.
Mobile phones
• We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
• Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.
• Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
• Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
• Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
• Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
• Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
• Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
• In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
• Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
• Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
• If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
• In the case of MH370
• The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
• A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.
Way-point Tracks
• The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.
Airworthiness Directive
• The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
• The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna
Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.
• There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
• There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
• There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
• It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
• Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.
Aircraft Fuel State
• It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
• Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
• West over the Malacca straight
• North west of Malacca straight
• Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
• These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
• It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
• I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.
Mobile phones
• We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
• Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:57 am to Topwater Trout
Yeah that pilot was mad
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:57 am to PuntBamaPunt
Conspiracy Theories
• There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
• The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects.
• It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
• Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
• Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
• Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
• Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
• Some of the more prevalent.
• The pilot (senior, not FO) hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
• Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
• There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. Note: this makes no sense to me. It would require involvement of lots of people on the ground and it would be much easier to steal, on the ground.
• The US hijacked the 777 using onboard FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcea (this one wins the insanity case).
Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
• The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
• The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
• To address the data on a few of these:
• 1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
• 2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
• 3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue - and generated laughter in the latest pressor
IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.
What seems likely.
• A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
• The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
• While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.
• There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
• The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects.
• It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
• Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
• Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
• Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
• Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
• Some of the more prevalent.
• The pilot (senior, not FO) hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
• Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
• There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. Note: this makes no sense to me. It would require involvement of lots of people on the ground and it would be much easier to steal, on the ground.
• The US hijacked the 777 using onboard FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcea (this one wins the insanity case).
Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
• The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
• The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
• To address the data on a few of these:
• 1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
• 2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
• 3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue - and generated laughter in the latest pressor
IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.
What seems likely.
• A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
• The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
• While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 6:57 am to ItNeverRains
quote:
And scary if true
It's been done before. The Israelis used this tactic in the Entebbe raid.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 7:08 am to Jim Rockford
And the plot completely changes/thickens
As I have said since the idea of a hijacking was feasible, I believe both pilots were in on it. What's the likelihood that both of them wanted to kill themselves?
quote:
Malaysia Airlines believes co-pilot of missing plane spoke final words to ground controllers - @AP
As I have said since the idea of a hijacking was feasible, I believe both pilots were in on it. What's the likelihood that both of them wanted to kill themselves?
This post was edited on 3/17/14 at 7:09 am
Posted on 3/17/14 at 7:13 am to RollTide1987
I don't see how the co pilot saying good night really thickens the plot.
Now, if it was a passenger, yes, shite would get real.
Now, if it was a passenger, yes, shite would get real.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 7:18 am to TigerHam85
quote:
I don't see how the co pilot saying good night really thickens the plot.
Because everyone was assuming yesterday that it was the lead pilot, and the lead pilot alone who did this. He was pissed off at the Malaysian government and wanted to make a statement by committing suicide and taking 238 other people with him. That was the running theory.
The fact that it was the co-pilot who delivered the final transmission, after the plane's transponder was already turned off mind you, really throws that theory through a loop.
This post was edited on 3/17/14 at 7:19 am
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