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re: Number of container ships outside the Ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach has dropped drastica
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:10 am to CaptainJ47
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:10 am to CaptainJ47
quote:
That is one of the worst graphic visualizations I can remember JPM producing. The yellow line starts out of thin air.
It's simply the point in which they started tracking that data. They weren't tracking the ships within 25 miles and I'm guessing because of the backed up ports they started tracking it.
The ports were backed up because of worker shortages and unions keeping ports in the stone age.
0
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:18 am to dewster
False. If I am reading it right then supply will be down and prices will only go up. Wave 2 of inflation.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:20 am to teke184
What I am curious about is whether the Digital Yuan is the equivalent of increasing the money supply without printing any more banknotes or whether a corresponding amount of physical money has to be removed from the system to offset the amount of Digital Yuan in circulation.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:27 am to EthicalHedonist
quote:
What does the yellow line mean?
Number of Chinese slaves used to make Lebron's shoes
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:30 am to Breauxsif
quote:
What I am curious about is whether the Digital Yuan is the equivalent of increasing the money supply without printing any more banknotes or whether a corresponding amount of physical money has to be removed from the system to offset the amount of Digital Yuan in circulation.
Maybe it's just a way to keep their citizens from being able to put their money outside of China and away from the central government.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:31 am to tiggerthetooth
So went back to pre covid numbers?
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:34 am to tiggerthetooth
Which works in the long term.
Short term? People who can move money overseas, mainly people from HK, Macao, and elsewhere, will convert that shite into non-Yuan currencies to offshore it in a theoretically more secure bank.
Granted, that has its own risks. Ask Holocaust Jews about Swiss bank accounts for the family that they were blocked from accessing after WWII because they couldn’t produce a death certificate from one of the camps for the account holder.
Short term? People who can move money overseas, mainly people from HK, Macao, and elsewhere, will convert that shite into non-Yuan currencies to offshore it in a theoretically more secure bank.
Granted, that has its own risks. Ask Holocaust Jews about Swiss bank accounts for the family that they were blocked from accessing after WWII because they couldn’t produce a death certificate from one of the camps for the account holder.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:36 am to tiggerthetooth
Plenty got rerouted. Houston is doing more volume than they ever had with teus along with some other areas
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:41 am to tiggerthetooth
I work in the industry and ocean volumes always crater first. Full Truckload volumes will bottom out late Q4 and Q1. Buckle up.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:46 am to tiggerthetooth
The Yellow Line is deceptive. In November 2021, container ships were ordered by California’s Gavin Newsom to wait 150 miles offshore in an attempt to improve air quality.
Problem solved, Democrat style!
Problem solved, Democrat style!
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:51 am to Jones
You are correct on the reroutes. It has been a banner year for Houston , Savannah and Norfolk. But COGs are just too high currently and will continue to rise. All the DCs and warehouse are stuffed full of freight for the foreseeable future. Thus the ocean volumes are dropping dramatically by the week. Again, that always comes first. Then the domestic movement will slow down in Q4 and 2023 and 2024 are going to be tough years for a lot of households. That’s after the middle and lower middle class spent up their savings trying to survive 2021 and 2022.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:57 am to Charm299
quote:
Part of this also is that we are in a recession heading to a depression and people aren’t buying useless china junk
This is the most correct statement.
Shilling has slowed down and the ports have caught up in the last few months
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:58 am to reggierayreb
quote:
I work in the industry and ocean volumes always crater first. Full Truckload volumes will bottom out late Q4 and Q1. Buckle up.
This looks like part of the Bullwhip effect that that Michael Burry has been talking about. Supply was finally catching up with demand. Now demand is cratering. The economy is going to struggle to find a balance. There will be another wave of inflation.
quote:
All the DCs and warehouse are stuffed full of freight for the foreseeable future.
Exactly. They are cancelling all their orders, too many of their orders. Then we will face a supply shortage and inflation will start again. Then when prices go up they will over order and the cycle starts again.
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 10:02 am
Posted on 9/30/22 at 10:19 am to reggierayreb
While containership delays have decreased, I have seen an increase in delays for bulk cargoes especially coal. Increased coal shipments to Europe and delays at the mines have caused significant delays in Baltimore and Norfolk.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 10:23 am to dewster
quote:
I guess they are done blaming everything on supply chain issues?
I work in project planning at a production and warehouse facility for water treatment units. We are still having trouble getting parts, especially parts from China.
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 10:24 am
Posted on 9/30/22 at 10:36 am to WaWaWeeWa
I work in Long Beach for an importer. There are no issues getting containers from the port currently (less than one week after arrival.) Demand hasn't dropped off but as mentioned above (bull whip effect) we are well stocked and no longer experiencing shortages. It seems stable at the moment tbh.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 10:46 am to tiggerthetooth
I've personally had to reroute my shipments (work - hundreds of sea cans) from landing at Long Beach/LA to go to other ports, some even to east coast ports. All shipments were coming from China and/or South Korea.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 10:49 am to little billy
quote:
I work in Long Beach for an importer. There are no issues getting containers from the port currently (less than one week after arrival.) Demand hasn't dropped off but as mentioned above (bull whip effect) we are well stocked and no longer experiencing shortages. It seems stable at the moment tbh.
Yes exactly. Stocks are full but demand is about to crater because of inflation and recession. Inflation will come down temporarily but rocket back up after. I think we are already in that inflation lull.
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