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NOAA's updated outlook for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season calls for a lot of activity
Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:27 pm
quote:
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to fuel storm development in the Atlantic, leading to what could be an “extremely active” season, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. Today, the agency released its annual August update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, initially issued in May.
quote:
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a rapid pace with a record-setting nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record. Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).
quote:
Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. These conditions are expected to continue for the next several months. A main climate factor behind these conditions is the ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since that time.
Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify.
LINK
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Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:29 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Might as well. Let’s get everything out of the way in 2020.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:30 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Boooooo!
Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:33 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
If you buy what the GFS is cooking, it has been consistently showing a system in the Gulf about two weeks from now for the last few days. No way to say anything specific about how strong the system will be, where it will go, or even if it'll actually occur. But, it looks like after about a short break through next week, things may be ramping back up.
This post was edited on 8/6/20 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:35 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
New GFS finally gave up on it. Weak wave that just moves into central america
Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:41 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
This is getting ridiculous. They started moving the cone a few years ago and everyone just accepted it. Now it’s led to this. What is even the point of having predictions if you can just come along and update them later?
When I was a kid they stuck to their predictions. It took guts and fortitude. Anyone can be a weatherman now. Just throw something out there and come back and change it when you’re wrong.
When I was a kid they stuck to their predictions. It took guts and fortitude. Anyone can be a weatherman now. Just throw something out there and come back and change it when you’re wrong.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:47 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
They say the same thing every year
Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:54 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
If you buy what the GFS is cooking,
MJO phase 8 = GFS cane. Ain't buying it yet.
quote:
it looks like after about a short break through next week, things may be ramping back up.
Yep. Second half of the month looks awfully conducive to tropical systems in the Atlantic.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 12:59 pm to cypresstiger
quote:
They say the same thing every year
I don't think they have put a forecast out that calls for this much activity in some time. They certainly don't do it every year.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 1:01 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
This is getting ridiculous. They started moving the cone a few years ago and everyone just accepted it. Now it’s led to this. What is even the point of having predictions if you can just come along and update them later?
When I was a kid they stuck to their predictions. It took guts and fortitude. Anyone can be a weatherman now. Just throw something out there and come back and change it when you’re wrong.
With so much data, modeling and information they have so many tools at their disposal and know so much. Because of all of this information, they can see the changes in weather patterns much more clearly than they could back in the day. This gives them the ability to adjust their forecasts. Back in the day, they didn't have as much information, so there simply weren't dramatic forecast changes.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 1:31 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
We just started building our house so this doesn't surprise me one bit.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 1:46 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4
So we are 7 storms ahead of our historical average.
quote:
. An average season produces 12 named storms,
Add 7 storms to our average of 12 brings the year up to 19.
NOAA is now predicting 19-25 fir the year. It’s easy to see why.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 1:47 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
And they’ll be wrong.
There’s a bunch of climate alarmists running these government organizations.
There’s a bunch of climate alarmists running these government organizations.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 1:52 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
they're always 50% right.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 1:53 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Whenever they say this, we never get any.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 2:42 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
LINK
It’s literally the exact same predictions these exact same clowns were lobbing up a decade ago. It’s recycled bullshite reported by a completely biased media that only cares about driving hype and securing clicks.
It’s literally the exact same predictions these exact same clowns were lobbing up a decade ago. It’s recycled bullshite reported by a completely biased media that only cares about driving hype and securing clicks.
Posted on 8/6/20 at 2:45 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
This is getting ridiculous. They started moving the cone a few years ago and everyone just accepted it. Now it’s led to this. What is even the point of having predictions if you can just come along and update them later? When I was a kid they stuck to their predictions. It took guts and fortitude. Anyone can be a weatherman now. Just throw something out there and come back and change it when y
This is a pretty dumb posts
Are you implying that the forecasters should ignore new developments when sending out a forecast that will help people prepare for what’s coming?
Should they say “we know the hurricane is now gonna make a right turn to slam into Tampa in 2 days but we originally forecasted it to hit Galveston in 5 so unfortunately we can’t change anything”?
Posted on 8/6/20 at 3:35 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:Don't know how old you are but they've done prediction updates for decades.
When I was a kid they stuck to their predictions
Posted on 8/6/20 at 3:39 pm to PorkSammich
quote:
And they’ll be wrong.
There’s a bunch of climate alarmists running these government organizations.
You do realize that it isn't just government entities predicting an above average hurricane season, right?
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