re: NOAA's updated outlook for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season calls for a lot of activity

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You do realize that NHC is run by NOAA, a government agency...and the Colorado State University researchers are sponsored by grants from multiple federal agencies (NASA/NOAA/Navy/etc).

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You do realize that it isn't just government entities predicting an above average hurricane season, right

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The reasons why we are now expecting an extremely active rest of the hurricane season are:

1. The environmental conditions across the Main Development Region of the Tropical Atlantic are very to extremely favorable for development. These conditions include exceptionally warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a stronger West African monsoon, low wind shear values, below average surface barometric pressures, weaker than average trade winds, and a more favorable than average wind flow pushing off of Africa.

2. Even though we are currently in neutral ENSO conditions, it is becoming increasingly more likely that La La Niña conditions will develop by Autumn. In fact, some La Niña-like atmospheric conditions already appear to be in place. La Niña typically reduces the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, thus also favoring a more active hurricane season. There is NO CHANCE AT ALL that El Niño conditions will develop and suppress the hurricane season.

3. The seasonal model guidance are now forecasting not only the likelihood of an extremely active rest of the hurricane season, but also a very dangerous weather pattern that could guide tropical storms/hurricanes towards land, instead of “out to sea”.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this discussion, a “hurricane outbreak” looks possible starting between about August 20 and August 25. The reason why is because a massive upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin during the second half of this month. This will lead to a significant increase in tropical activity across the Atlantic Basin starting between August 20 and August 25 and continue until at least September 25 to September 30. I cannot emphasize enough of how favorable this configuration and its timing looks in terms of hurricane formation across the Atlantic Basin from late August through September.

Even more concerning and downright scary is the forecast upper level weather pattern for the end of this month through the month of September.

The model guidance is pointing to the potential for a upper level high pressure ridge to be in place from near Hudson Bay, Canada through the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada starting later this month & continuing through September. This weather pattern configuration is dangerous because it will block any tropical systems from turning to the north & instead will guide them westward towards the Caribbean and the United States.

If that wasn’t enough, the analog guidance for later this month is EXTREMELY worrisome. The guidance supports the idea of a big high pressure ridge over Hudson Bay, Canada, which will help guide any systems towards land, instead of turning out into the open Atlantic. Also, look at some of those analog dates!!

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The reason why is because a massive upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin during the second half of this month. This will lead to a significant increase in tropical activity across the Atlantic Basin

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Crown Weather

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