re: New Year’s Day Severe Weather Thread - Enhanced Risk in AL, TN, MS, AR

New warning is pretty much on top of me but nothing is happening outside. No wind or anything.

Trenton Ga maybe.
That’s out of my viewing area folks.
Shoutout to Legend and Boat.
Goodnight people.

Warned into Georgia now.

quote:

---

Still not sure what they saw on that last warning.

---

Preemptive. They had watched those similar storms earlier in the evening quickly spin up and put down a tornado. They got out ahead of that one.

quote:

---

Ryan Hall Y'all talking about snow from Mississippi into Alabama & Tennessee

---

If we take the models at face value, the snow hits every county around me, but not mine.

How's this for a temperature swing?

quote:

---

Shoutout to Legend and Boat.

---

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop suggests that mid- and
upper-level heights are gradually falling across the central Gulf
Coast region at this time, as the upper trough crossing the central
and southern Plains advances.

South of the southward-moving surface cold front -- now bisecting
Mississippi from southwest to northeast and extending across
northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee, the boundary layer remains
quite moist. This -- combined with the mid-level ascent aiding in
some steepening of lapse rates, is helping to maintain 500 to 1000
J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area per RUC-based objective
analyses. In tandem with the subtly increasing ascent, an uptick in
convective coverage/intensity is noted over the past hour across the
region, and expect this trend to continue over the next few hours
(in line with HRRR and other recent CAM runs).

Given the very favorable background kinematic environment, risk that
a few severe/rotating storms re-emerge remains apparent. Along with
potential for locally damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes remain a
possibility overnight.

And now many areas that were under tornado watches yesterday are under a winter weather advisory.