re: Most important war since 1500 AD?

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The reason I picked WW1 was it laid the foundation of the modern world.

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I mentioned the Boxer Rebellion in 1900...

The Russians used this pretext to try to take Manchuria, sending 200k into there. This alarmed the Japanese, another member of the Eight Nation Alliance, who felt they needed to stop Russian expansion into Asia (which the Brits agreed with- they signed a treaty, first among major European powers, with the Japanese). That led to the Russian-Japan war of 1904, where the Japanese won decisively. This embarrassed the Russians, and caused them to pivot and focus on the Balkans. They stirred up that area, which led to WW1.

The Germans in the Boxer Rebellion- Kaiser Wilhelm gave a speech to departing troops to "act like Huns" and take no prisoners... this played a large part in the Germans being portrayed as brutal (along with the Russians). This pushed the Brits away from the Germans and closer to the French and Russians.

The Italians, despite being involved here and also being an Allied nation in WW1, got little from the Treaty of Versailles, same as the Japanese. Which both countries took as snubs, and opening the doors for what led to WW2. Remember, the Italians under Mussolini were aggressive before Hitler was; Hitler admired him early on for that.

The Japanese, having earned the respect of the other great powers (the Europeans and US), I think felt they had also earned the right to expand their own sphere of influence in Asia, just as the other powers had theirs. I think this led to what we saw in the Pacific.

Following the sack of Peking and all the looting, the US pushed hard to maintain China as an independent nation instead of a group of colonies, and also caused the US to use "dollar diplomacy" instead of military force to gain control. That's several major factors in today's world; obviously no China would mean the world would be greatly different today. And also, we still practice dollar diplomacy, spending trillions everywhere.

It was such a small conflict in military terms, but with gigantic repercussions stemming from it.

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In terms of a combination, WWI. It's a war that harnesses industrial advantage and the ability for efficient wholesale slaughter on an industrial level along with its aftermath. Revolution in Russia, Germany and the breaking up of Central European and Middle East Empires and the unleashing of Communism as a viable alternative governing system.
Really WWI dwarfs them all, even WWII because of the profound change that results especially in the Western world.

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Even though I said the Thirty Years War, ^ this is the correct answer.