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re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:31 pm to TDsngumbo
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:31 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
If the Old River Control Structure ever failed, then yes, the river almost 100% reroutes through the Atchafalaya River since it's deep enough already to be carved deep enough for the Mississippi River to stay there.
The additional flow would cut an even deeper channel. Which is why, to add to the misery of your scenario, they couldn't risk diverting more through the ORCS to lower the level here.
I mean shite, an ORCS failure is an economic and humanitarian disaster of a magnitude I'm happier not imagining.
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Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:35 pm to TDsngumbo
If this happens, we're done.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:37 pm to TDsngumbo
I think there is only one way this scenerio happens.
As you may have saw with Katrina, a barge ended up on top of some homes. There still is some unresolved issue as how this happened.
Some people believe the levee was overtopped, a hole started to open due to backside erosion, and eventually the hole grew big enough that the loose barge just sailed through it.
Other people believe the barge crashed right through the levee, causing it to fail.
I don't see the MS river levee in BR being overtopped - there are too many other relief valves - planned and unplanned - for that to happen.
Now, could a large runaway barge or ship break the levee open during a high water event? Yes, I think that's possible.
If that were to happen, you would see them immediately max open Morganza and Bonnet Carre - to try to get the river level as low as the can, then a repair would take several weeks, easy.
As you may have saw with Katrina, a barge ended up on top of some homes. There still is some unresolved issue as how this happened.
Some people believe the levee was overtopped, a hole started to open due to backside erosion, and eventually the hole grew big enough that the loose barge just sailed through it.
Other people believe the barge crashed right through the levee, causing it to fail.
I don't see the MS river levee in BR being overtopped - there are too many other relief valves - planned and unplanned - for that to happen.
Now, could a large runaway barge or ship break the levee open during a high water event? Yes, I think that's possible.
If that were to happen, you would see them immediately max open Morganza and Bonnet Carre - to try to get the river level as low as the can, then a repair would take several weeks, easy.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:39 pm to LSUFanHouston
It proabably wouldn’t be straight up overtopped. It’s more likely to fail due to seepage. Look at what happened near Farr Park (Duncan Point) where they had boils on the landside toe and had to bring in sandbags for relief.
This post was edited on 2/22/19 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:40 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
ETA: Forecast is now up to 43.5' for Baton Rouge which is just 1.5' below the 2011 levels. Further downstream forecasts are to exceed 2011 levels in Donaldsonville. In Reserve the forecast now calls for 23.5 whereas in 2011 it was 23.97. We're seeing the set up for a top 10 or maybe even top 5 flood
Expect these to be adjusted upward. The Missouri and Ohio Valleys have been getting a shitton of snow and rain, as well as the upper Mississippi.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:40 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Now, could a large runaway barge or ship break the levee open during a high water event? Yes, I think that's possible.
This is a very real danger during high water events on the river. A major high water event like this is shaping up to be is just spooky dangerous.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:40 pm to Picayuner
quote:bro.. BR drinking water comes from aquifiers... not the river
iver BR forecast now up to 43.5' - Hypothetical levee break discussion
If the old river structure failed and the Mississippi moved to the Atchafalaya, we wouldn't lose the ports in Baton Rouge and New Orleans, but would lose ALL DRINKING WATER FOR BOTH CITIES FOREVER !!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:42 pm to udtiger
quote:
The Missouri and Ohio Valleys have been getting a shitton of snow and rain, as well as the upper Mississippi.
The pattern for the next week or two is to have lows run up the Mississippi generally and cut east near the lakes. The Ohio valley gets soaked, and then temps really start to moderate over the Missouri.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:43 pm to choupiquesushi
quote:
bro.. BR drinking water comes from aquifiers... not the river
It's hard to believe anyone from the state and posting here didn't know that.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:43 pm to Duke
quote:
The pattern for the next week or two is to have lows run up the Mississippi generally and cut east near the lakes. The Ohio valley gets soaked, and then temps really start to moderate over the Missouri.
While reading this I was thinking "okay but that may not be true. I'll wait to see what Duke says". Then I saw that it was you who posted this.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:44 pm to udtiger
quote:
Expect these to be adjusted upward. The Missouri and Ohio Valleys have been getting a shitton of snow and rain, as well as the upper Mississippi.
I work with a bunch of people in minnesota. She has almost 4 feet of snow on her lawn, which is an insane amount. She suggested it won't melt until April though.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:45 pm to choupiquesushi
43.1ft by March 7th. I think peak will be late March. There is a lot of water locked up at the beginning of Mississippi watershed. So basically 14 days from now is peak?
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:47 pm to Mudminnow
The current forecast only takes into account future forecast rainfall for the next 48 hours I believe. Anything that happens beyond that is not part of the current forecast. That's why each spring the river levels are continuously adjusted.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:48 pm to TDsngumbo
Do you know the height where they close the Mississippi River for barge and recreational traffic?
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:49 pm to TDsngumbo
It's broad strokes though, and the warm up for the midwest should end up with the Ohio catching a break. It won't come together at least, but presents a long running high water scenario.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:51 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
How much would it spread out before shoring up the levee and stopping the flow? Surely the flow would be continuous for a good 24 hours at least before the ACE is able to put a temporary stop to it.
Sorry to tell you brother, but nobody is stopping that water until it equalises. If it equalises.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:51 pm to Mudminnow
I don't know.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:55 pm to TDsngumbo
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/10/19 at 8:20 am
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:57 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:you would be amazed at how little people that spent their whole lives in NO know about the rest of LA
quote:
bro.. BR drinking water comes from aquifiers... not the river
It's hard to believe anyone from the state and posting here didn't know that.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:59 pm to LSUFanHouston
The incident with the barge during Katrina was in the Lower Ninth Ward. The Industrial Canal I that area had a levee with a floodwall on top of it. The floodwall failed. Whether that was the result of overtopping and erosion, the loose barge striking the floodwall or a combination of the two, I'm not sure.
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