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Started By
Message
re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:13 am to Flavius Belisarius
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:13 am to Flavius Belisarius
Well it’s pouring out to sea and building up a narrow strip of land (Venice). It’s being concentrated into one area instead of broadly distributing its silt.
That’s my observation at least
That’s my observation at least
1
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:13 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:
quote:
Allowing the river to periodically make major course shifts isn't practical these days
Bingo.
Yes, but its easier said than done and takes man's best efforts.
Looking at a much bigger picture, think about trying to control the climate. That's what some think needs to be done.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:19 am to cave canem
This is a very informative thread.
Thxs guys
Thxs guys
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:20 am to Halftrack
quote:
Who is ‘they?’
The Army Corps of Engineers. Did you even read?
quote:
And, kind of like Katrina, or 9/11, or Houston flooding, or BR floods of 2026, or California wildfires? All that was unimaginable too.
These comparisons are stupid and I'm sure you know this.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:22 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Mississippi River BR forecast now up to 43.5' - Hypothetical levee break discussion
The levees are not going to break. The Ms RIver is not going to change course but the Advocate and the other media in La are going to run scare pieces about it.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:23 am to cave canem
It looked a lot less complicated and lower risk of failure in the 15th century than it does now.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:28 am to TulaneUVA
quote:
Well it’s pouring out to sea and building up a narrow strip of land (Venice). It’s being concentrated into one area instead of broadly distributing its silt.
Not exactly, it is dumping its sediment load outside the continental shelf in waters far too deep to ever build any more land.
This is being done purposefully and is what is destroying the LA coastline, it is just far easier to blame those evil oil companies.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:29 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
How much would it spread out before shoring up the levee and stopping the flow? Surely the flow would be continuous for a good 24 hours at least before the ACE is able to put a temporary stop to it. That's a tremendous amount of water flowing into the city and points southward.
I was dating a girl that lived in Lake Providence back in 2011 when the abandoned levee broke. There is no way that a break in one of the main Ms River levees will be plugged until after the river crests and starts dropping.
Of course, the corps of engineers will not let it get to that point. They will open the BCS and the Morganza spillways before the river puts enough pressure on the levees to breaks them. The only way realistic way the river would be breached is if someone blows them up or intentionally weakens them.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:33 am to East Coast Band
quote:
It looked a lot less complicated and lower risk of failure in the 15th century than it does now.
it is interesting to think about exactly it would look like today if we had not intervened, there would most likely be several outlets as that is the historical norm.
One of which would most likely be right through the center of the Bonne Carre, that was once the main channel and there would be miles of marsh south of there and no storm surge protection needed, everything is a trade off.
This post was edited on 2/23/19 at 9:36 am
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:34 am to WeeWee
Could levees upriver of the control structure break? What relieves pressure from those levees.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:42 am to WeeWee
quote:
The only way realistic way the river would be breached is if someone blows them up or intentionally weakens them.
It's not so much the direct pressure on the levee as the undermining. There are sandboils up and down the river in high water. One of those could hypothetically weaken a levee to the point of collapse
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:48 am to cave canem
quote:
Not exactly, it is dumping its sediment load outside the continental shelf in waters far too deep to ever build any more land.
This is being done purposefully and is what is destroying the LA coastline, it is just far easier to blame those evil oil companies
This. There is no sediment to offset the naturally occurring subsidence. Thus, we lose coastline.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 9:54 am to Flavius Belisarius
Agree. If you need real life proof, check out the Wax Lake Outlet.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 10:36 am to WeeWee
quote:
The levees are not going to break. The Ms RIver is not going to change course but the Advocate and the other media in La are going to run scare pieces about it.
In 2019 you are most likely correct, over the next 50 years I have my doubts your statement will hold up.
Using absolutes when dealing with mother nature is a fools errand.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 10:49 am to doubleb
A levee break is unlikely but if it happens it would be more likely at a bend which could be any place along the river. I think pretty much any place below Natchez where the river makes a big bend has an equal chance. Hopefully the corps can stay ahead of it. Any break above Morganza would flow south along the west side of the Atchafalaya.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 11:11 am to TDsngumbo
That was the bunches bend levee failure in 2011. It is the old, privately maintained levee that broke. Not the main one.
I’ve got some land in there.
I’ve got some land in there.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 11:40 am to willeaux
You would think there would be an interactive map available of hypothetical flood areas at certain river levels and location breeches. That would be bad arse.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 11:44 am to willeaux
quote:
You would think there would be an interactive map available of hypothetical flood areas at certain river levels and location breeches. That would be bad arse.
When they opened the Morganza the last time, they put out a map predicting water levels in the spillway. It wildly overstated the flooding.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 11:48 am to JudgeHolden
Yes that map had thousands of people in full on panic mode.
Posted on 2/23/19 at 11:56 am to cave canem
I say we blow up all the levees south of let's say Chalmette.
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