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re: Microsoft AI chief says in 5 years AI can do every white collar job.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 9:40 am to Clames
Posted on 2/17/26 at 9:40 am to Clames
quote:
Try this again when an AI can produce the five French mother sauces with nothing but robots and non-preproportioned raw ingredients in a kitchen.
As a person who has made 3 of the 5 mother sauces, I don't have the ego to think of that as some major thing. I have to ask what you think is so difficult that robots couldn't do them in the future?
Proportioning ingredients? Easy
Knife skills? Easy
That would also be done in prep long before cooking.
Temperature control? Easier for them than us as they would be connected to both the surface and could measure the temp of what's being cooked.
Why do you think making a roux (stirring flour and butter in predesigned proportions over a set temp until a set temp/time) and then incorporating warm milk would be too complex for robots? That's a bechamel.
Hollandaise isn't anymore technically difficult. Humans frick it up b/c they rush it or screw up their temperatures and the emulsification gets fricked.
1
Posted on 2/17/26 at 9:40 am to Turnblad85
You are confusing state jobs with actual blue collar people.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 9:43 am to Woolfpack
quote:
Hard to argue with that but I would point out that for the entire human history, we had very little rapid adapting to do.
...
It’s only been a couple hundred years since humans have needed to adapt in any meaningful way during their lifetimes.
I get that, but these aren't skilled craftsmen and the jobs they gave up were part of that modernity. Manufacturing jobs are a recent development, and the ones that permitted the high level of SOL in the 50s and 60s were an outlier due to WW2.
And there are plenty of low or mid-skilled trades out there for these people begging for them to take up the trade, but they refuse, b/c they want the factory job that paid for a high SOL on a single income like their grandfather, and don't want to get a skilled job that will take more work and pay less.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 9:44 am to HubbaBubba
Will AI replace the Microsoft AI chief?
I hope so.
I hope so.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 9:57 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
, I don't have the ego to think of that as some major thing
Because they aren't major things, they are very basic yet still an insurmountable hurdle to AI in the lifetime of anyone alive today. That's the point.
quote:
Knife skills? Easy
No, not easy. I don't think AI could even be given a set of water stones to put a proper edge on any of my Japanese kitchen knives either. Forget properly maintaining the non-stainless steel ones while using them.
quote:
That would also be done in prep long before cooking.
Yeah, because AI requires eventhing to be prepared, pre-proportioned, assigned a know value. That's the point.
quote:
Temperature control? Easier for them than us as they would be connected to both the surface and could measure the temp of what's being cooked.
As long as they can stick a probe into something that is always in the same spot and of homogenized dimensions. That's the point.
quote:
Why do you think making a roux (stirring flour and butter in predesigned proportions over a set temp until a set temp/time) and then incorporating warm milk would be too complex for robots? That's a bechamel.
Because different flours and different fats require different treatments. Not surprised you have only have a very one-dimensional, simplistic understanding of the problem here. That's the point.
quote:
Hollandaise isn't anymore technically difficult.
It's not for a human but for something that can only run on algorithms with no sense of taste, touch, smell, subtlety and nuance for cooking beyond what is required to run nothing more than a fancy vending machine, insurmountable. That's the point.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 10:13 am to Clames
quote:
I don't think AI could even be given a set of water stones to put a proper edge on any of my Japanese kitchen knives either.
quote:
Forget properly maintaining the non-stainless steel ones while using them.
How many of these do you think Applebees has in their kitchens nationally?
quote:
Yeah, because AI requires eventhing to be prepared, pre-proportioned, assigned a know value. That's the point.
Yeah how would this be too difficult for AI and robots? We tell it the proportions, dice size, etc. and it follows instructions.
Creating dishes is an act of creativity. Cooking dishes is an act of rote behavior. That's why cooking is perfect for AI/robots.
quote:
As long as they can stick a probe into something that is always in the same spot and of homogenized dimensions.
Again, they'd be using the same cookware every time for the same proportions of the same ingredients cooked the same way.
quote:
Because different flours and different fats require different treatments.
Ignoring yet another pivot, why do you think that is too difficult to tell AI to do? Legit idiots do it in kitchens every day. How? They're told how to cook the different flours and different fats. This is all pre-planned, sorted, and part of a uniform set of instructions.
quote:
with no sense of taste, touch, smell, subtlety and nuance for cooking
If you do it correctly, and enough, you don't need this for the same hollandaise sauce created with the same proportioned ingredients in the same method, with the same cookware, over and over agian.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 10:15 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
I don't want to live in that world. Universal base income would be an atrocious disaster for all of humanity. It's communism, and it won't work.
AI's capabilities are still being vastly oversold, but it can replace a lot of people who perform basic data driven tasks for a living.
I don't want to live in that world either, but it mostly terrifies me for my children. I have no idea what direction to push them in for a career.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 10:16 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 2/17/26 at 10:28 am to magildachunks
quote:
Everybody else is in trouble. Even lawyers. You're allowed to represent yourself, and with AI you will see more people choosing to do so, using AI as support.
He who represents himself has a fool for a client.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 10:34 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
these aren't skilled craftsmen
quote:
they want the factory job that paid for a high SOL
They certainly carry a lot of resentment towards the modern day choices for earning a living.
This isn’t necessarily exclusive of our city dwelling white collar classes. We just might find that all the people saddled with student loans will fit neatly into this category. Does it matter if they worked real hard to find themselves in the same position as Billy Joe from the outskirts of Olney Illinois with 2 DUIs and a slight meth problem? Will they be willing and able to adapt? Will they be willing to wash and dry robots for $6.25 an hour 60 hours a week?
Posted on 2/17/26 at 10:39 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
How many of these do you think Applebees has in their kitchens nationally?
They don't have much in the way of any kitchen cutlery. Once again, mostly prepackaged heat-and-serve menu items.
quote:
Yeah how would this be too difficult for AI and robots?
You really are a dumb frick. These are things that AI CAN handle. My point, if you could take a dick out of your mouth for 10 minutes and pay attention here, is that AI relies on being handed everything pre-proportioned. Great for fast food and places like Applebee's and Olive Garden where everything comes in on Sysco trucks.
quote:
Ignoring yet another pivot,
I haven't made a pivot yet, from the start I have stated that as long as it fits a neatly interpreted algorithm, AI can do it.
quote:
Yeah how would this be too difficult for AI and robots?
Never made that argument, please quote where I did. You can't of course, just want to see you try not to be the dishonest little shite you usually are...
quote:
If you do it correctly, and enough, you don't need this for the same hollandaise sauce created with the same proportioned ingredients in the same method, with the same cookware, over and over agian.
That's not cooking, that just assembling, just like Hello Fresh isn't cooking either.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 10:44 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
As for knife sharpening...robot sharpening already exists
Yep, and all it junk for factory edged knives. Even my Global knives, which are initially machine edged at least have a human putting the final polish on it. Something about human eyes and touch still being superior I guess. You keep making my points out of your own sheer ignorance...
Posted on 2/17/26 at 11:03 am to Woolfpack
quote:
That was the argument for offshoring mundane factory and manufacturing jobs. I remember Bush saying that, at the time, ‘we don’t know what these jobs will be, but America always leads the way’ or some shite.
We never replaced those jobs.
It ain’t just AI. It’s robots and self driving too.
Just because any individual job can’t be replaced by a genius robot who can work 23 hours a day, doesn’t mean your job won’t be affected. Yeah 99% of white collar workers can’t manage a busy kitchen but that leaves thousands in every city who can. Not to mention the drop in demand when these workers stop getting a paycheck.
Offshoring those kinds of jobs did indeed result in better jobs for the people who would have been in those jobs. The height of manufacturing jobs in the US was in August of 1979 at 19.4 million people. In June of 2018 that number was down to 12.8 million people. In that period of time the real median wages across every quintile and across all gender and races has risen slightly faster than inflation....by a very small amount but wages have outpaced inflation. The number of hours worked has decreased during that period and the number of paid hours away from work has risen sharply in that time period. White it was certainly a scary time for workers at the end of the day more wound up in a better place than they were in than those who found themselves in a worse place. If you ask the average white collar worker today, say an accountant, if they would like a job in a 1970s era steel mill or auto plant I suspect most will tell you thanks but no thanks. I know that many long for a return to such jobs but only for other people, not themselves. The folks preaching about manufacturing jobs and trade jobs while they are sitting at a computer in an artificially controlled environment with flushing toilets just a few steps away ain't dreaming of a job in the steel mill from "The Deer Hunter"....they dream of that existence for others, not themselves.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 11:37 am to Clames
quote:
Something about human eyes and touch still being superior I guess.
The marginal difference is unnecessary in probably 99.99% of cooking applications (and I already mad an exception for the refinement of legit fine dining).
Making sure the mirepoix is proportioned equally does not require that marginal difference.
quote:
You keep making my points out of your own sheer ignorance
Not at all. You're still doing the same thing over-valuing the human element of cookery. You just don't realize you did it again.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 11:52 am to Rebel
quote:
If they take the teachers jobs, who is going to sleep with the Jr High kids?
Joking aside, unless all these kids are staying home, you’ll still need “teachers” in rooms to babysit, troubleshoot, etc.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 11:55 am to TexasTiger08
quote:
Joking aside, unless all these kids are staying home, you’ll still need “teachers” in rooms to babysit, troubleshoot, etc.
Won’t be any point to school. Send the kids to mines or fields or whatever
Posted on 2/17/26 at 12:00 pm to HubbaBubba
quote:I dont disagree with you, but I will say that over time and as this work force ages out or is removed from the market, many of the people will be more and more comfortable with AI and reduced human interaction. And for many sales people, the points of contact will be removed and replaced.
No! The personal touch is still important to people.
I dont think it is in the next 10-15 years but a change is coming.
This post was edited on 2/17/26 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 2/17/26 at 12:04 pm to CatfishJohn
quote:Same as always, in areas of interest that can offer upward movement....namely the ability to advance in their career where they can make a good living off their own time or make a great living off of others time. All the while advising them to stay in front or at least keep pace with changes in technology within their scope. Now, completely data driven jobs, I would avoid. There simply may be an extinction of some jobs such as that.
I have no idea what direction to push them in for a career.
This post was edited on 2/17/26 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 2/17/26 at 12:11 pm to magildachunks
quote:
Doctors will be relatively safe. Engineers too.
Everybody else is in trouble. Even lawyers.
No industry will be unaffected. The job market for engineers is already being affected, as the design software used in some disciplines is already AI-enabled. But in general, I think engineers will be better off than many others.
The problem isn't the tech itself. It's the scorching rate of adoption and innovation. Entire industries will be turned upside down by AI, and there will be pain for folks caught in the middle.
Folks need to pay attention and see the best angle where AI can benefit their work. Then master it. You may still be replaced within a few years, but being able to leverage the tech better than anyone else is your best short-term insurance. Don't just ignore it and hope for the best.
Even setting all the doomsday concerns aside, which are valid IMO, this is going to be a rough 5-10 years as the entire workforce becomes AI-augmented.
Posted on 2/17/26 at 12:15 pm to magildachunks
quote:
Doctors will be relatively safe. Engineers too.
I don't know about that. A doctor is either A) a walking encyclopedia of medical knowledge or B) someone who knows how to perform repeatable procedures on the human body.
Both of those tasks seem prime for AI.
The problem with AI in general though is that it has no idea whether or not what it is saying is factually correct. I'm not an AI expert by any means, but I am fairly certain to say that we would need to re-evaluate the entire premise of large language models in order to correct this.
The real problem IMO is that companies are going whole hog into the potential of AI; without fulling understanding if or how it can fill their needs, tasking employees with just figuring it out.
billions of dollars are being pumped into AI, but it has yet to show any real ROI. The burble bursting is going to be rough.
This post was edited on 2/17/26 at 12:21 pm
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