re: Media rushes to remind everyone that 1 extremely cold event doesn't debunk global warming

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The point is the alarmists point to single events as proof one way, but then argue "it's just a single event" when an event occurs the other way.

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Agreed. To keep beating the dead horse, it's frequency of events and what role increased warmth plays in the changing occurrence.

On the other side, the jokes I understand as jokes but they also play into the thinking of the unfortunately large group who doesn't believe it's happening.

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I love these threads. The poorly educated white males get to show just how closely they will regurgitate anything said by the corporate owners of their political party.

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Unfortunately, we can't all be as enlightened as you.

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Aubie Spr96
Media rushes to remind everyone that 1 extremely cold event doesn't debunk global warming
I'm always amazed at people who will accept the fact that a weatherman can't accurately tell me what the weather will be tomorrow but will readily believe a climatologist who claims to be able to predict the weather generations from now.

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Aubie this x 1000

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The poorly educated white males

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Shouldn't be so hard on yourself baw. I'm sure you have some redeeming qualities somewhere.

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What exactly do you mean by this? Better yet, can you just answer my question of which predictions should be trusted? And which previous specific predictions have played out as predicted?

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Does this help?



That's from the IPCC. Observations through 1995 ran on the higher side of their models, from 1995 to 2005ish they ran near the average, and form 2005 to today they've run on the low side of average, down toward the lower end of the confidence interval, albeit within the limits.

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What do these people actually expect us to do as individuals about global warming? There are countries with billions of people that are fricking this place up way more than we ever could.

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To your point:
Population of China: 1.386 billion
Population of USA: 325.7 million

There is no EPA or DEQ over there, nor is there RCRA legislation to abide by.

So who's the first one to volunteer to trot their happy arse over to China and demand that they do a better job? And with them basically owning the USA, they can tell us to frick off.

That's not to say that the USA can't do the stand up thing in regards to environment, but the idea that selling a few electric cars here and there is really making a difference to the premise, is laughable.

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We don't have nearly enough weather data to come to that kind of conclusion and models are not good enough to tell you if this is true.

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Can't deny that. It's complex, and the big picture drivers like ENSO aren't exactly well predicted.

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The reality is that some scientists believe this to be true, so they can write papers on why this is true and they can cherry pick the data to say its true.

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Sure, but what's incoherent in the reasoning?

Change the energy balance to keep more heat from escaping, it gets stored somewhere and the best heat sink is the ocean. Warmer water, more water vapor. More latent heat to work with. More rain.

This isn't to deny the complexities that exist and the uncertainty from models and the assumptions built in. I get the projected weather impacts have a multitude of other factors and the statistical significance of modeling for them can be questionable.

What's lacking when these complexities are brought up to discredit the predictions is a hypothesis as to why the additional energy we keep isn't going to have the precipitation variability being suggested.

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I model weather for a living... and the whole "It's about to get a lot worse!!!... all storms/hurricans/blizzards will be worse" is unfounded. Remember in 2006/2007 when Al Gore promised us years of more terrible hurricanes only to have more than a decade of very quiet hurricane activity?

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I mean, it's not the like the Pacific has been quiet. Of course, there's more to a hurricane than just heat. Which leads me to the idea that it shows up more as the ability to rapidly intensify when conditions are right. Which isn't common, but wrong place and time for a Michael type ramp up coming at Miami or Houston would be catastrophic. Only some modeling to back this up, so it's more hypothesis than fact but you wouldn't say it's unreasonable.

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Can you tell me about the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and its effect on temperatures over decades? Do you understand how statistically broken it is to use results from 30 to 50 years of rainfall records (actually just using the last 20 years for trends) to come up with changes in trends of 100-year or greater storm events?

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It's obviously difficult to separate wet/drought due to climate change and the AMO/ENSO, considering how well we model coming El Ninos. No debate there.

I'll just say that I understand there's uncertainty in extrapolating results from a warmer planet but there needs to be more of an explanation to why there won't be impacts in precipitation intensity for the wet periods. Or in the bigger picture, how the earth will manage the warmer temperatures without having negative impacts to humans.

It doesn't need to be proven, just make sense.

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I'm always amazed at people who will accept the fact that a weatherman can't accurately tell me what the weather will be tomorrow but will readily believe a climatologist who claims to be able to predict the weather generations from now.

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Wut

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What do these people actually expect us to do as individuals about global warming? There are countries with billions of people that are fricking this place up way more than we ever could.

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Those of the more leftist persuasion can not TAX all those people in other nations. They can not accrue power and control over people's lives in those other nations. It has to happen in the United States, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. They can not control China, or India, or various African nations, and they certainly can not take their financial cut from those.

Despite THEIR plastic waste, and THEIR carbon footprints, the Left wants OUR money and OUR lives controlled because we are their power base. So despite having the most stringent environmental policies already, and the cleanest air and water in the world, the United States seeks to clamp down even more and create Al Gore's "carbon taxes" to benefit the Left's insatiable desire for power and money.