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re: May 1, 1942 - Japan: One Battle From Victory?
Posted on 5/1/21 at 1:11 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 5/1/21 at 1:11 pm to Darth_Vader
Any invasion force, meaning troops on the ground, heading for Hawaii would have to come from the other side of the Pacific. Midway doesn't have enough landmass to support anything like that. And supplying troops occupying Hawaii would be even more problematic than Midway. Japan never really considered occupying Hawaii for this reason.
Japan banked on the populace not wanting to go to or continue the war. They did not anticipate the outrage that Pearl Harbor incited and after that there was no way we quit. Even if we had lost every carrier at Midway.
We could replace any battle losses in fairly short measure. Japan could not.
Japan banked on the populace not wanting to go to or continue the war. They did not anticipate the outrage that Pearl Harbor incited and after that there was no way we quit. Even if we had lost every carrier at Midway.
We could replace any battle losses in fairly short measure. Japan could not.
2
Posted on 5/1/21 at 1:19 pm to BuckyCheese
Again, good points. But, following a victory at Midway, especially one where our last remaining carriers were wiped off the map, seizing Hawaii would, in the view of the Japanese, be (1) relatively easy to take and (2) give Japan an almost priceless negotiation asset that would (3) very likely bring the US to the negotiating table. These facts may have changed their thinking about Hawaii.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 2:50 pm to Mstate
quote:
True. If we had lost at Midway it would have prolonged the war a couple years and the Soviets may have had more of a stake in Europe since we probably would not have had the capacity to invade at Normandy while fighting a fierce defensive war in the pacific.
Love exploring alternative scenarios and wild to think of a few decisions here and there could alter millions of lives
Somebody on one of the alt.history boards did an almost book length series of posts based on the premise of the US hanging on to Wake Island. It boiled down to protracted slugfest in the central Pacific and resulted in a longer war than in our timeline.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:35 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
Now that Burma and control of the Burma Road have fallen to the Japanese, can anyone stop them?
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:56 pm to Darth_Vader
You’re right. Without the code breakers giving Nimitz the intel he needed to put our carriers at the exact right spot at the exact right time, Midway would have fallen and very likely Hawaii would have been next. What was left of our Pacific Fleet would have been forced to fallback to the west coast. And it would most likely be 1944 before we would be in any position to think about beginning a push across the Pacific. The war in the Pacific could have dragged on until 1947 or even longer had we lost at Midway.
In the book Nimitz and his Admirals - which should be required reading - they state that after Midway Nimitz knew we would win and while he wouldn't say when, he believed it would be much sooner than the current estimate of 1949. The US was planning for a 8-10 year war before Midway.
In the book Nimitz and his Admirals - which should be required reading - they state that after Midway Nimitz knew we would win and while he wouldn't say when, he believed it would be much sooner than the current estimate of 1949. The US was planning for a 8-10 year war before Midway.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:59 pm to RollTide1987
They were never one battle from victory. They expanded too far for their military to hold. It was a matter of time.
Midway accelerated things greatly.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:59 pm to RollTide1987
Even if they win it, they didn’t have the oil supplies to win it in the long haul. Bombing Pearl Harbor is one of the worst decisions any country has ever made.
This post was edited on 5/1/21 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 5/1/21 at 4:08 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
Any invasion force, meaning troops on the ground, heading for Hawaii would have to come from the other side of the Pacific. Midway doesn't have enough landmass to support anything like that. And supplying troops occupying Hawaii would be even more problematic than Midway. Japan never really considered occupying Hawaii for this reason.
Midway's big enough for an advance submarine base (we built one later in the war) and refueling station for ships and aircraft. From there they could launch a blockade of Hawaii and attempt to starve it out. They wouldn't have to invade. Without Hawaii, Australia is on its own and probably falls. Does this affect the eventual outcome? Probably not, we presumably still get the bomb in or around 1945. But our resources go into an all out defense of our west coast and the Soviets end up with most or all of Europe.
Another possibility, with Japan running wild in the far east, Hitler offers to intercede and guarantee England's continued possession of India in exchange for an end to hostilities. Maybe he even strikes a deal for middle eastern oil. This makes the Russian path to victory much harder, though still far from impossible.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 4:08 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Even if they win it, they didn’t have the oil supplies to win it in the long haul. Bombing Pearl Harbor is one of the worst decisions any country has ever made.
Japan had no delusions of winning a long war against America. That was never their plan. From the Japanese perspective they had two choices (1) accept America’s demands regarding China and thus also accept their position as a second rate power or (2) roll through dice of winning a quick sharp war against America. They rolled the dice and lost big.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 4:12 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Does this affect the eventual outcome? Probably not, we presumably still get the bomb in or around 1945
We would still have to push the Japanese back far enough to where we could establish bomber bases from which to deliver the bomb.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 4:13 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Japan had no delusions of winning a long war against America. That was never their plan. From the Japanese perspective they had two choices (1) accept America’s demands regarding China and thus also accept their position as a second rate power or (2) roll through dice of winning a quick sharp war against America. They rolled the dice and lost big.
As despicable as the Japanese were during that war, I do have to admire the balls on them. Biggest balls of any country in that war with the possible exception of Britain (Churchill’s balls specifically).
Posted on 5/1/21 at 4:19 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
As despicable as the Japanese were during that war, I do have to admire the balls on them. Biggest balls of any country in that war with the possible exception of Britain (Churchill’s balls specifically).
When Japan
came out of it’s centuries long isolation in the 19th century, one of the main things they did was build a modern, world-class navy modeled after Great Britain. The British helped them build their navy in regard to ship design and manufacturing, officer training, and overall naval doctrine.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 4:21 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
We would still have to push the Japanese back far enough to where we could establish bomber bases from which to deliver the bomb.
The B36 was conceived in 1941 and flew for the first time in 1946. It wouldn't take much to push that process along.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 5:00 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
The B36 was conceived in 1941 and flew for the first time in 1946. It wouldn't take much to push that process along.
The B-36 was envisioned to bomb Europe. It’s max range was a little over 9,000 miles; and that wasn’t achieved until almost 1950. When the B-36 was designed it had a range of a little over 5,000 miles. The distance from that west coast of the US to Japan is over 6,000 miles. Even if you stripped it down to bare bones it would never have made it there and back, much less if you tried the trip with an almost 12,000 lb atomic bomb in the bomb bay.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 5:08 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Bombing Pearl Harbor is one of the worst decisions any country has ever made
A bad decision combined with horrendous execution was a recipe for disaster. They didn't attack our repair yards or our oil reserves.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 5:10 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
And it would most likely be 1944 before we would be in any position to think about beginning a push across the Pacific. The war in the Pacific could have dragged on until 1947 or even longer had we lost at Midway.
Do y'all fully realize the manufacturing capabilities of the US in 1942-45? Those 3 CVs at Midway were a drop in the bucket. In less than a year those three would be replaced by more modern Essex-class CVs - with 18 more to slip out of the shipyard by war's end. The US built 175 Fletcher-class DDs during the war. 175. Of just one class of one type. Now start adding in all the support and logistics ships the US cranked out; forget about combatants. Japan lost that war on Dec 7th, 1941.
Like I said, the failure of the Mark XIV torpedo slowed the American advance more than the IJN. Japan banked on the Kentai Kessen as their war strategy with no forethought as to the catastrophic ramifications if that didn't work. In a way, Port Arthur and Tsushima Strait deluded Japan into thinking that was a winning strategy.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 5:11 pm to WWII Collector
Newt Gingrich and an associate wrote a whole series of alternative novels where the Japanese DID invade and take Hawaii...they were overextended and it took some time, but we eventually got our industrial might rolling and retook the islands and then some.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 5:13 pm to VADawg
quote:
A bad decision combined with horrendous execution was a recipe for disaster. They didn't attack our repair yards or our oil reserves
It’s ironic the Japanese who used a carrier attack to try to wipe out our fleet in one massive blow did not themselves yet fully grasp that aircraft carriers had made battleships obsolete. The fact they concentrated their attacks on Battleship Row proves they still viewed battleships as the apex warship of the age.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 5:14 pm to RollTide1987
Posted on 5/1/21 at 5:17 pm to Darth_Vader
From Dutch Harbor to Tokyo is about 2800 miles. Some of the Aleutians could have been used to launch such attacks.
This post was edited on 5/1/21 at 5:20 pm
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